David H. Oram

Sensitivity and specificity of multimodal and ultrasound screening for ovarian cancer, and stage distribution of detected cancers: results of the prevalence screen of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

BACKGROUND Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, with most women not diagnosed until the disease is in its advanced stages. The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) is a randomised controlled trial designed to assess the effect of screening on mortality. This report summarises the outcome of the prevalence (initial) screen in UKCTOCS. METHODS Between 2001 and 2005, a total of 202 638 post-menopausal women aged 50-74 years were randomly assigned to no treatment (control; n=101 359); annual CA125 screening (interpreted using a risk of ovarian cancer algorithm) with transvaginal ultrasound scan as a second-line test (multimodal screening [MMS]; n=50 640); or annual screening with transvaginal ultrasound (USS; n=50 639) alone in a 2:1:1 ratio using a computer-generated random number algorithm. All women provided a blood sample at recruitment. Women randomised to the MMS group had their blood tested for CA125 and those randomised to the USS group were sent an appointment to attend for a transvaginal scan. Women with abnormal screens had repeat tests. Women with persistent abnormality on repeat screens underwent clinical evaluation and, where appropriate, surgery. This trial is registered as ISRCTN22488978 and with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. FINDINGS In the prevalence screen, 50 078 (98.9%) women underwent MMS, and 48 230 (95.2%) underwent USS. The main reasons for withdrawal were death (two MMS, 28 USS), non-ovarian cancer or other disease (none MMS, 66 USS), removal of ovaries (five MMS, 29 USS), relocation (none MMS, 39 USS), failure to attend three appointments for the screen (72 MMS, 757 USS), and participant changing their mind (483 MMS, 1490 USS). Overall, 4355 of 50 078 (8.7%) women in the MMS group and 5779 of 48 230 (12.0%) women in the USS group required a repeat test, and 167 (0.3%) women in the MMS group and 1894 (3.9%) women in the USS group required clinical evaluation. 97 of 50 078 (0.2%) women from the MMS group and 845 of 48 230 (1.8%) from the USS group underwent surgery. 42 (MMS) and 45 (USS) primary ovarian and tubal cancers were detected, including 28 borderline tumours (eight MMS, 20 USS). 28 (16 MMS, 12 USS) of 58 (48.3%; 95% CI 35.0-61.8) of the invasive cancers were stage I/II, with no difference (p=0.396) in stage distribution between the groups. A further 13 (five MMS, eight USS) women developed primary ovarian cancer during the year after the screen. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values for all primary ovarian and tubal cancers were 89.4%, 99.8%, and 43.3% for MMS, and 84.9%, 98.2%, and 5.3% for USS, respectively. For primary invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancers, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive-predictive values were 89.5%, 99.8%, and 35.1% for MMS, and 75.0%, 98.2%, and 2.8% for USS, respectively. There was a significant difference in specificity (p<0.0001) but not sensitivity between the two screening groups for both primary ovarian and tubal cancers as well as primary epithelial invasive ovarian and tubal cancers. INTERPRETATION The sensitivity of the MMS and USS screening strategies is encouraging. Specificity was higher in the MMS than in the USS group, resulting in lower rates of repeat testing and surgery. This in part reflects the high prevalence of benign adnexal abnormalities and the more frequent detection of borderline tumours in the USS group. The prevalence screen has established that the screening strategies are feasible. The results of ongoing screening are awaited so that the effect of screening on mortality can be determined.

Screening for ovarian cancer: a pilot randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND The value of screening for ovarian cancer is uncertain. We did a pilot randomised trial to assess multimodal screening with sequential CA 125 antigen and ultrasonography. METHODS Postmenopausal women aged 45 years or older were randomised to a control group (n=10,977) or screened group (n=10,958). Women randomised to screening were offered three annual screens that involved measurement of serum CA 125, pelvic ultrasonography if CA 125 was 30 U/mL or more, and referral for gynaecological opinion if ovarian volume was 8.8 mL or more on ultrasonography. All women were followed up to see whether they developed invasive epithelial cancers of the ovary or fallopian tube (index cancers). FINDINGS Of 468 women in the screened group with a raised CA 125, 29 were referred for a gynaecological opinion; screening detected an index cancer in six and 23 had false-positive screening results. The positive predictive value was 20.7%. During 7-year follow-up, ten further women with index cancers were identified in the screened group and 20 in the control group. Median survival of women with index cancers in the screened group was 72.9 months and in the control group was 41.8 months (p=0.0112). The number of deaths from an index cancer did not differ significantly between the control and screened groups (18 of 10,977 vs nine of 10,958, relative risk 2.0 [95% CI 0.78-5.13]). INTERPRETATION These results show that a multimodal approach to ovarian cancer screening in a randomised trial is feasible and justify a larger randomised trial to see whether screening affects mortality.

Diagnostic Performance of Nanoparticle-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Diagnosis of Lymph Node Metastases in Patients With Endometrial and Cervical Cancer

PURPOSE Lymph node metastases affect management and prognosis of patients with gynecologic malignancies. Preoperative nodal assessment with computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is inaccurate. A new lymph node-specific contrast agent, ferumoxtran-10, composed of ultrasmall particles of iron oxide (USPIO), may enhance the detection of lymph node metastases independent of node size. Our aim was to compare the diagnostic performance of MRI with USPIO against standard size criteria. METHODS Forty-four patients with endometrial (n = 15) or cervical (n = 29) cancer were included. MRI was performed before and after administration of USPIO. Two independent observers viewed the MR images before lymph node sampling. Lymph node metastases were predicted using size criteria and USPIO criteria. Lymph node sampling was performed in all patients. RESULTS Lymph node sampling provided 768 pelvic or para-aortic nodes for pathology, of which 335 were correlated on MRI; 17 malignant nodes were found in 11 of 44 patients (25%). On a node-by-node basis, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) by size criteria were 29%*, 99%, 56%, and 96%, and by USPIO criteria (reader 1/reader 2) were 93%/82%* (*P = .008/.004), 97%/97%, 61%/59%, and 100%/99%, respectively (where [*] indicates the statistical difference of P = x/x between the two results marked by the asterisk). On a patient-by-patient basis, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV by size criteria were 27%*, 94%, 60%, and 79%, and by USPIO criteria (reader 1/reader 2) were 100%/91%* (*P = .031/.06), 94%/87%, 82%/71%, and 100%/96%, respectively. The kappa statistic was 0.93. CONCLUSION Lymph node characterization with USPIO increases the sensitivity of MRI in the prediction of lymph node metastases, with no loss of specificity. This may greatly improve preoperative treatment planning.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

Summary Background Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality. Methods In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50–74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032. Findings Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202 638 women: 50 640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50 639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101 359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202 546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50 624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50 623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101 299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345 570 MMS and 327 775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0–12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0–14 of 15% (95% CI −3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (−7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (−20 to 31) in years 0–7 and 23% (1–46) in years 7–14, and in the USS group, of 2% (−27 to 26) in years 0–7 and 21% (−2 to 42) in years 7–14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (−2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (−27 to 43) in years 0–7 and 28% (−3 to 49) in years 7–14 in favour of MMS. Interpretation Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7–14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. Funding Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Calculation of the risk of ovarian cancer from serial CA-125 values for preclinical detection in postmenopausal women.

PURPOSE Previous studies of CA-125 levels from screening trials for ovarian cancer have indicated that serial CA-125 levels may identify cases better than a fixed CA-125 cutoff. We conducted a study to assess the screening performance of the risk of ovarian cancer calculation based on serial CA-125 levels from prospectively collected serum samples compared with a fixed CA-125 cutoff. PATIENTS AND METHODS The calculation was applied to data from a prospective trial of screening for ovarian cancer involving 22,000 postmenopausal women older than 45 years. The analysis was performed using 33,621 CA-125 results from 9,233 women for whom two or more serial samples were available. All serum samples from the patients with ovarian cancer were obtained before clinical detection. Sensitivity and specificity levels for preclinical detection of index cancers were calculated for various cutoffs for the risk and a single CA-125 measurement, and receiver operator curves were constructed. RESULTS The risk calculation significantly improved the area under the curve from 84% to 93% compared with a fixed cutoff for CA-125 (P =.01). For a target specificity of 98%, the risk achieved a sensitivity of 86% for preclinical detection of ovarian cancer, whereas CA-125 achieved a sensitivity of 62%. The estimates of performance are unbiased, because the risk calculation was derived independent of the data from this trial. CONCLUSION These results provide the first evidence that preclinical detection of ovarian cancer using serial CA-125 levels interpreted with the risk calculation significantly improves screening performance compared with a fixed cutoff for CA-125. The results justify the incorporation of the risk calculation in a prospective, randomized, controlled trial.

Risk of diagnosis of ovarian cancer after raised serum CA 125 concentration: a prospective cohort study

Abstract Objective: To determine the risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer and fallopian tube cancer associated with a raised concentration of the tumour marker CA 125 in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Design: Serum CA 125 concentration was measured annually in study participants for one to four years. Participants with a concentration >/=30 U/ml were recalled for abdominal ultrasonography. Follow up was by annual postal questionnaire. Setting: General practice, occupational health departments, ovarian cancer screening unit in a teaching hospital. Subjects: 22 000 volunteers, all postmenopausal women >/=45 years of age; recruited between 1 June 1986 and 1 May 1990. Intervention: Surgical investigation if the ultrasound examination was abnormal. Main outcome measures: Cumulative and relative risk of developing an index cancer (invasive epithelial cancer of the ovary or fallopian tube) after a specified CA 125 result. Results: 49 index cancers developed in the study population during a mean follow up of 6.76 years. The overall cumulative risk of developing an index cancer was 0.0022 for the entire study population and was lower for women with a serum CA 125 concentration <30 U/ml (cumulative risk 0.0012) but was appreciably increased for women with a concentration >/=30 U/ml (0.030) and >100 U/ml (0.149). Compared with the entire study population the relative risk of developing an index cancer within one year and five years was increased 35.9-fold (95% confidence interval 18.3 to 70.4) and 14.3-fold (8.5 to 24.3) respectively after a serum CA 125 concentration >/=30 U/ml and 204.8-fold (79.0 to 530.7) and 74.5-fold (31.1 to 178.3) respectively after a concentration >/=100 U/ml. Conclusion: CA 125 is a powerful index of risk of ovarian and fallopian tube cancer in asymptomatic postmenopausal women. Key messages This study shows that raised serum CA 125 concentration is a powerful index of risk of ovarian cancer in asymptomatic postmenopausal women The risk in the year after a serum CA 125 concentration >/=100 U/ml is similar to the lifetime risk to women in high risk families The importance of a raised serum CA 125 concentration in relation to risk of other cancers is not yet known The role of CA 125 as a component of a screening strategy for ovarian cancer is under investigation, but the impact on mortality is not known

Molecular quantification and mapping of lymph-node micrometastases in cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND A proportion of patients with cancer and lymph nodes negative on histology will develop recurrence. Reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) is a highly sensitive method for detection of lymph-node micrometastases, but accurate quantitative assessment has been difficult. METHODS We studied primary tumours and 156 lymph nodes from 32 patients with cervical cancer (stage IA2, IB1, and IB2) and 32 lymph nodes from nine patients with benign disease. A fully quantitative, real-time RT-PCR assay was used to document absolute copy numbers of the epithelial marker cytokeratin 19. Primers and probe were designed not to amplify either of the two cytokeratin 19 pseudogenes. FINDINGS All primary tumours and histologically involved lymph nodes (six) had more than 106 copies of cytokeratin 19 mRNA per microg total RNA. Expression of cytokeratin 19 (up to 1.1 x 10(5) copies per microg RNA) was detected in 66 (44%) of 150 histologically uninvolved lymph nodes, and in nodes from 16 of 32 patients with cervical cancer. 15 of these 16 patients with evidence of micrometastases had the highest cytokeratin 19 transcription level in a first lymph-node drainage station (three obturator, six internal, and six external iliac node). Transcription of cytokeratin 19 was found at a low level in just one of 32 lymph nodes obtained from nine patients with benign disease. Median copy number of cytokeratin 19 transcription was significantly higher (>10(3) copies) in association with adverse prognostic features. INTERPRETATION The results suggest that about 50% of early-stage cervical cancers shed tumour cells to the pelvic lymph nodes. The amount of cytokeratin 19 expression was related to clinicopathological features. Further studies are required to document the clinical implications of molecular micrometastases.

Radical trachelectomy in early stage carcinoma of the cervix: outcome as judged by recurrence and fertility rates

The recurrence and fertility rates in 30 women undergoing radical trachelectomy for early stage invasive cervical cancer at St Bartholomews and Royal Marsden Hospital were reviewed. There were no recurrences, and the mean follow up was 23 months (range 1–64 months). Of 13 women trying to have a baby, eight had conceived with a total of 14 pregnancies and nine live births. Two were still trying and three were experiencing sub‐fertility. There were seven premature deliveries and one late miscarriage. Six of the preterm births and the late miscarriage were associated with prelabour spontaneous rupture of membranes. This conservative yet locally radical procedure for a highly selected group of women who wished to preserve their fertility appears to offer a safe alternative to radical hysterectomy in early invasive cervical cancer.

Radical trachelectomy: a way to preserve fertility in the treatment of early cervical cancer

In the Centenary year of Wertheims hysterectomy for the treatment of invasive cervical cancer, it is appropriate to look at less radical methods of managing early stage disease. Radical trachelectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy is a conservative but locally radical procedure, preserving the corpus uteri and therefore fertility potential. The first 10 cases in a pilot study are presented. One patient has required post‐operative radiotherapy and another a completion radical hysterectomy. Three live births by caesarean section and three other pregnancies have resulted. Careful selection within strict criteria may allow this more conservative approach without compromising cure. These procedures should be carried out in referral centres with continuing follow up and review.

Recruitment to multicentre trials—lessons from UKCTOCS: descriptive study

Objective To describe the factors that contributed to successful recruitment of more than 200 000 women to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, one of the largest ever randomised controlled trials. Design Descriptive study. Setting 13 NHS trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Participants Postmenopausal women aged 50-74; exclusion criteria included ovarian malignancy, bilateral oophorectomy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, active non-ovarian malignancy, and participation in other ovarian cancer screening trials. Main outcome measures Achievement of target recruitment, acceptance rates of invitation, and recruitment rates. Results The trial was set up in 13 centres with 27 adjoining local health authorities. The coordinating centre team was led by one of the senior investigators, who was closely involved in planning and day to day trial management. Of 1 243 282 women invited, 23.2% (288 955) replied that they were eligible and would like to participate. Of those sent appointments, 73.6% (205 090) attended for recruitment. The acceptance rate varied from 19% to 33% between trial centres. Measures to ensure target recruitment included named coordinating centre staff supporting and monitoring each centre, prompt identification and resolution of logistic problems, varying the volume of invitations by centre, using local non-attendance rates to determine the size of recruitment clinics, and organising large ad hoc clinics supported by coordinating centre staff. The trial randomised 202 638 women in 4.3 years. Conclusions Planning and trial management are as important as trial design and require equal attention from senior investigators. Successful recruitment needs constant monitoring by a committed proactive management team that is willing to explore individual solutions for different centres and use central resources to improve local recruitment. Automation of trial processes with web based trial management systems is crucial in large multicentre randomised controlled trials. Recruitment can be further enhanced by using information videos and group discussions. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN22488978.