David H. Romer

Does Monetary Policy Matter? a New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz

This paper uses the historical record to isolate episodes in which there were large monetary disturbances not caused by output fluctuations. It then tests whether these monetary changes have important real effects. The central part of the paper is a study of postwar U.S. monetary history. We identify six episodes in which the Federal Reserve in effect decided to attempt to create a recession to reduce inflation. We find that a shift to anti-inflationary policy led, on average, to a rise in the unemployment rate of two percentage points, and that this effect is highly statistically significant and robust to a variety of changes in specification. We reach three other major conclusions. First, the real effects of these monetary disturbances are highly persistent. Second, the six shocks that we identify account for a considerable fraction of postwar economic fluctuations. And third, evidence from the interwar era also suggests that monetary disturbances have large real effects.

A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications

Conventional measures of monetary policy, such as the federal funds rate, are surely influenced by forces other than monetary policy. More importantly, central banks adjust policy in response to a wide range of information about future economic developments. As a result, estimates of the effects of monetary policy derived using conventional measures will tend to be biased. To address this problem, we develop a new measure of monetary policy shocks in the United States for the period 1969 to 1996 that is relatively free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. The derivation of the new measure has two key elements. First, to address the problem of forward-looking behavior, we control for the Federal Reserves forecasts of output and inflation prepared for scheduled FOMC meetings. We remove from our measure policy actions that are a systematic response to the Federal Reserves anticipations of future developments. Second, to address the problem of endogeneity and to ensure that the forecasts capture the main information the Federal Reserve had at the times decisions were made, we consider only changes in the Federal Reserves intentions for the federal funds rate around scheduled FOMC meetings. This series on intended changes is derived using information on the expected funds rate from the records of the Open Market Manager and information on intentions from the narrative records of FOMC meetings. The series covers the entire period for which forecasts are available, including times when the Federal Reserve was not exclusively targeting the funds rate. Estimates of the effects of monetary policy obtained using the new measure indicate that policy has large, relatively rapid, and statistically significant effects on both output and inflation. We find that the effects using the new measure are substantially stronger and quicker than those using prior measures. This suggests that previous measures of policy shocks are significantly contaminated by forward-looking Federal Reserve behavior and endogeneity.

New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

The question of how monetary policy affects the real economy is a perennial one in macroeconomics. Over the past several decades, however, the focus of the debate has changes. Today it is taken for granted that monetary policy affects aggregate demand; what is debated is why prices do not adjust fully to compensate for shifts in demand. Thirty years ago, in contrast, sluggish price adjustment was taken for granted; what was debated was the magnitude of the effect of monetary policy on aggregate demand and the channels through which that effect occurred. This paper returns to the subject of that older literature. A fresh look at the way monetary policy affects aggregate demand is particularly timely in light of recent developments in theoretical analyses of credit markets. Work over the past 15 years has suggested that imperfections are a central feature of capital markets, and that these imperfections can cause credit allocation to be made largely on the basis of quantity rationing rather than price adjustment and can create a special role for lending by financial intermediaries. This work has also shown that credit market imperfections can have important consequences for macroeconomic fluctuations in general and for the way monetary policy is transmitted to aggregate demand in particular.

Monetary policy matters

Abstract This paper addresses Hoover and Perezs comments on our 1989 paper. We first show that the estimated impact of monetary policy shifts remains large and ranges from marginally to strongly significant when oil shocks are controlled for. We then extend our previous work by expanding the sample period and identifying an additional policy shift in December 1988. With this extension, the estimated effects of monetary policy shifts are large and highly significant for all reasonable specifications of oil shocks. We also demonstrate that Hoover and Perezs other objections have little bearing on our conclusions.

Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football

This paper examines a single, narrow decision—the choice on fourth down in the National Football League between kicking and trying for a first down—as a case study of the standard view that competition in the goods, capital, and labor markets leads firms to make maximizing choices. Play‐by‐play data and dynamic programming are used to estimate the average payoffs to kicking and trying for a first down under different circumstances. Examination of actual decisions shows systematic, clear‐cut, and overwhelmingly statistically significant departures from the decisions that would maximize teams’ chances of winning. Possible reasons for the departures are considered.

A Simple General Equilibrium Version of the Baumol-Tobin Model

This paper presents a simple general equilibrium model that includes optimizing choices of the frequency of trips to the bank. The model is used to analyze the effect of inflation on the capital stock, the interest elasticity of money demand, the optimum quantity of money, and the welfare costs of inflationary finance.

Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal

This paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. Although the null hypothesis of strict market efficiency is rejected, the evidence against the hypothesis is not overwhelming. That is, the data do not provide evidence of gross violations of the conventional valuation model.

Financial intermediation, reserve requirements, and inside money: A general equilibrium analysis

Abstract Reserve requirements are examined in a general equilibrium context. The paper develops a simple general equilibrium model that includes diverse opportunities for investment and a role for financial intermediaries. Two versions of the model are considered. One is a thought experiment in which currency serves purely to satisfy legal reserve requirements; the other is more realistic. The model is used to analyze the comparative static effects of changes in reserve requirements, the effects of changes in other parameters of the economy in the presence of reserve requirements, and some qualitative issues raised by reserve requirements.

Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast?: The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending

The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes. However, because taxes change for many reasons, examinations of the relationship between overall measures of taxation and subsequent spending are plagued by problems of reverse causation and omitted variable bias. To derive more reliable estimates, this paper examines the behavior of government expenditure following legislated tax changes that narrative sources suggest are largely uncorrelated with other factors affecting spending. The results provide no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, the point estimates suggest that tax cuts increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases. Examination of four episodes of major tax cuts reinforces these conclusions.

The monetary transmission mechanism in a general equilibrium version of the baumol-tobin model

Abstract The paper analyzes the effects of financial shocks on an economy in which individuals hold money to make purchases and in which the frequency of conversions of other assets into money is endogenous. The paper thus extends the work of Sanford Grossman and Laurence Weiss (1983) and Julio Rotemberg (1984) by allowing agents to choose the timing of trips to the bank. There are two major conclusions. First, the economys response to a nominal interest rate shock exhibits large cycles. Second, the economys response differs dramatically, both qualitatively and quantitatively, from its response when the timing of trips is fixed.