David Hampel

Selected aspects of modelling monetary transmission mechanism by BVAR model

In this paper we use the BVAR model with the specifically defined prior to evaluate data including high-lag dependencies. The results are compared to both restricted and common VAR model. The data depicts the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic and Slovakia from January 2002 to February 2013. The results point to the inadequacy of the common VAR model. The restricted VAR model and the BVAR model appear to be similar in the sense of impulse responses.

Changes in BMI in hospitalized patients during treatment with antipsychotics, depending on gender and other factors

Abstract Objective: To investigate the differences in body mass index (BMI) changes between men and women during hospitalization. Methods: The retrospective study monitored demographic and clinical data of 462 schizophrenic patients hospitalized 737 times between 2006 and 2011. BMI analysis was performed on patients on antipsychotic medication hospitalized longer than four days. Results: Patients with an initial BMI < 25 gained more weight than patients with a BMI > 25 (3.94% vs. 0.23%, men 4.02% vs. 0.69%, women 3.79% vs. −0.52%, always p < 0.001). Greater BMI gains were reported during the first hospitalization than during subsequent ones (3.94% vs. 1.66%, men 3.97% vs. 1.98%, women 3.88% vs. 1.18%, always p < 0.001). The comparison between men and women showed a higher increase in BMI in men 2.36% vs. 1.54%, p = 0.022. Men also gained significantly more weight than women on polytherapy (+2.55% vs. +1.37%) and during subsequent hospitalizations (1.98% vs. 1.18%). For treatment with various atypical antipsychotics (AP), no significant differences were found in weight changes between men and women; during treatment using a combination of multi-receptor AP and metabolically neutral aripiprazole, a significant increase of BMI occurred in men, but not in women (p = 0.018). Conclusions: Men appear to be more prone to weight gain than women.

Pre-caecal Digestible Phosphorus in Maize and Wheat for Broiler Chickens

ABSTRACT 1. The objective of this study was to determine the coefficient of pre-caecal digestion of P in maize (3.9 g/kg of total P, 0.83 g/kg of phytate P, 138 FTU [phytase units]/kg) and wheat (3.17 g/kg of total P, 1.94 g/kg of phytate P, 666 FTU/kg) in broilers according to the WPSA protocol. 2. For the diets, monosodium phosphate was used as an additional P supplement. Two sets of diets containing 200, 460 and 740 g/kg of wheat or 200, 500 and 740 g/kg of maize were formulated. A total of 288 21-d-old male broilers (Ross 308) were assigned to 24 cages (8 birds per cage) and the 6 test diets were assigned to cages. The coefficient of pre-caecal digestion of P was determined by the indicator method and linear regression. 3. In both ingredients, pre-caecal digestible P increased linearly with increasing inclusion levels of maize or wheat (P < 0.05). The coefficients of digestion of pre-caecal P were estimated to be 0.18 for wheat and 0.33 for maize.

alfaDRA: A program for automatic elimination of variety self-proximities in alpha-design

Abstract When using alpha-design for plant variety testing under space restrictions, ex post design modifications must be implemented to prevent variety self-proximity on plots and, consequently, to prevent damage-induced loss of experimental information. This is done ad hoc for each experiment; the unsystematic modification is, however, commonly not only unable to resolve all existing proximities, but may introduce secondary undesired proximities. In this paper, a procedure is developed for the universal construction of modified alpha-design that covers all existing proximity constraints while keeping the efficiency level of the original design. Using extensive real data simulation, we validate the procedure and confirm high damage robustness of the modified designs. The procedure has been implemented as a Matlab function and is available as on-line supplement to the paper. The function enables to design the damage-robust experiments automatically using only standard computer equipment.

Optimal managing of forest structure using data simulated optimal control

We analyze the deterministic infinite time horizon optimal control model aimed to determine optimal areas forested by particular tree species in Drahanska highlands in the Czech Republic. Facing the limitations in original data available we suggest a simulation technique to generate valid full scope data and to estimate correct underlaying functions. The simulation procedure, based on the experts suggestions and comments, is described in detail and the economic interpretations of the assumptions made are provided. Subsequently, we develop the optimal control model given the nonlinear cost and revenue functions and find its analytical solution. The results obtained are discussed with respect to forestry practice and further application of our model. The presented approach intends to be a valid basement for further thorough study of related dynamical decision problems in the Czech forestry business.

Alternative Approaches for Assessing the European Countries Economic and Social Results

Abstract The European Union has been passing a complicated period over the last years. The EU economy lags behind its own development goals as well as, behind the results achieved by its economic partners and competitors – USA and Japan. Due to lower competitiveness in the international market environment, the persisting or even expanding problems on the domestic labor markets are evident. Many EU countries demonstrate relatively high unemployment which leads to weakening the income situation of households and strengthening the social tension in society. Particularly worrying is situation of young graduates and also people approaching retirement age and seniors. In context of such arguments, the strategy for perspective development of the EU – the strategic document Europe2020 – has been proposed. Its key objective is to strengthen the economic competitiveness of the European Union, its member countries and particularly the competitiveness of its firms. It is expected that the Europe 2020 objectives will create favorable environment for reducing the social tension across the EU countries and finally lead to the better life of majority of its citizens. All the EU2020 goals are difficult. To achieve them it is necessary to identify precisely the current positions of individual countries and their distances from these ambitious goals in order to select the optimal strategies to their fulfillment. Our paper aims to contribute to identification of the current competitiveness position of the EU and its member states in international market environment and to estimate the chances for achieving the EUROPE 2020 strategic goals.

Predicting bankruptcy of manufacturing companies in EU

Article focuses on the prediction of bankruptcy of the 1,000 medium-sized retail business companies in EU from which 170 companies gone bankrupt in 2014 with respect to lag of the used features. In recent times, bankruptcy of manufacturing companies rapidly increased due to the impact of the recession, which produces economic and social problems accordingly. Therefore, the need for bankruptcy prediction models is very high. From various types of classifi cation models we chose Support vector machines method with spline, hyperbolic tangent and RBF ANOVA kernels, Decision trees, Random forests and Adaptive boosting to acquire best results. Pre-processing is enhanced with fi lter based feature selection like Gain ratio and Relief algorithm to acquire attributes with the best information value. As we can see both fi ltering methods offers different variables to be used in the classifi cation and Decision trees wrapper algorithm chose less number than its competitors. Suitable attributes as ROA, Interest cover, Solvency ratio based on assets and Operating revenues were mostly used but it also changes across the time, which are probably very obtainable. It is apparent that inappropriate theoretical value of one variable does not necessarily lead to bankruptcy, so it is better to use combinations of these variables. From the results it is obvious that with the rising distance to the bankruptcy there drops precision of bankruptcy prediction. The last year (2013) with avaible fi nancial data offers best total prediction accuracy, thus we also infer both the Error I and II types for better recognizance of misclassifi cation rates. The Random forest and Decision trees offer better accuracy for bankruptcy prediction than SVM method, both method offers prediction accuracy which is comparable to previous empirical studies.

The effect of genotype on the behaviour of free range chickens

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate the behaviour of fast- and slow growing chickens, when the birds had access to the outdoors. Fifty of both 1-day-old male chicks of a laying hybrid ISA BROWN (IB) and broilers ROSS 308 (RS) were kept in two pens in the same building. In each group ten birds were marked with a colored spray. From three weeks of age the birds had access to the outdoors. From the age of one to seven weeks old, one day a week the marked birds were observed from 8:00 to 18:00 every ten minutes and the activity was noted. At 49 and 90 days old twenty birds were slaughtered and the strength of bones was measured. The behaviour was expressed as percentage of the time spent in activity. The average time that the birds spent eating during the 7 week period was almost the same in IB and RS. On average, IB birds spent significantly higher (P<0.05) an amount of time moving around, but until the fifth week of age there was no significant difference between these genotypes. In IB, movement was the more frequent activity. The resting sitting down was the most frequent activity in RS and since three weeks of age they spent significantly more (P<0.05) time with this activity than IB. On average, the IB birds spent significantly more (P<0.05) time scratching than did the RS. No aggression or pecking was observed in the IB males during the whole test period. The strength of the femur was significantly higher in RS in comparison with IB in both ages (49d - P<0.001, 90d - P<0.05). Although the rules for organic farming dictate that the chickens have to have enough outdoor area to move around in, the fast growing broilers do not use it.

Sustainable Development in the EU

The challenges of globalisation, technological progress and limited world resources that are typical of elevated consumption must be necessarily addressed in a manner that reflects both socio-economic and environmental problems. One relevant approach to these problems is represented by so-called sustainable economics. This approach cannot address traditional measures of economic performance such as GDP or GNP and requires a new methodology for the measurement of socio-economic activities in the environmental context. In this chapter, we present widely used indicators of sustainable development, namely, the Better Life Index, the Ecological Footprint, the Happy Planet Index, and the Environmental Performance Index. The content and appropriate uses of these indices in the EU countries are discussed, devoting special attention to the CEE countries. We also investigate relationships among those indices. Based on a quantitative analysis, we identify clusters of EU countries with similar levels of sustainable development. Furthermore, we classify the EU countries according to their effective use of natural resources relative to economic output.

Estimation of cost and revenue functions for reforestation system in Drahanska highlands

In this paper we are interesting in mathematical description of reforestation system in Drahanska highlands, which can be found in the Czech Republic. We estimate parameters of revenue and cost functions predefined according to formulation of underlying optimal control problem. Data related to wood processing economy are available in limited form only, because companies do not present their costs and profits in regular way. To cover overall situation in forestry management we employ simulation techniques, which provide data suitable for regression. Finally, shape and coefficients of cost and revenue functions are discussed for particular species.