David J. Lanoue

Retrospective and Prospective Voting in Presidential-Year Elections

This paper addresses the debate over whether retrospective or prospective economic voting has the greater impact on electoral behavior. Considering the presidential elections of 1984 and 1988, we develop models of the effects of economic evaluations on voting in presidential and congressional elections. First, we test this model for the overall electorate. Then, we divide our sample between voters who do and do not hold government economic policies responsible for fluctuations in personal and national well-being. We find that retrospective economic judgments have the stronger and more consistent impact on voting behavior in nearly every case. We discuss the implications of these findings for elections research.

Citizen Opinion and Constitutional Choices: The Case of the UK

In recent years, political scientists have begun to pay greater attention to political institutions and questions of institutional change. This article addresses a question that has been relatively ignored in the literature: What shapes mass opinion toward institutional and constitutional change? We develop two broad kinds of explanations of how voters see institutions. One is grounded in a conception of voters as self-interested actors, and the other considers a more ideological and psychological approach. We find empirical evidence consistent with both arguments. Using a broad categorization developed by Tsebelis (1990), we find that part of the answer to how voters see institutions lies in the kinds of institutions voters are being asked about: Different institutions prompt very different responses from different types of voters.

Short-Term Political Events and British Government Popularity: Direct and Indirect Effects

We investigate the effect of non-economic variables on public opinion in Great Britain. We find that such factors have a direct impact on the popularity of the British prime minister, but not on the popularity of the governing party. Rather, the effect of non-economic variables on party popularity is indirect, operating through the prime ministers popularity. Thus the partys electoral fortunes are closely tied to the prime ministers own popularity, increasing the importance of personality and personal factors in British politics.

Voting in the Glare of the Spotlight: Representatives' Votes on the Impeachment of President Clinton

We seek to understand the strategies employed by members of the House of Representatives in balancing their partisan and ideological goals with their desire for re-election in voting on whether or not to hold impeachment hearings regarding President Bill Clinton and, ultimately, whether or not to approve articles of impeachment against him. Our major finding is that electoral considerations apparently had a greater impact on the October, 1998, vote on holding impeachment hearings than on the actual impeachment votes two months later. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding may be caused by the differences between where the votes fell on the election cycle. We also uncover evidence that certain members made strategic decisions in voting on each of the four articles of impeachment recommended by the House Judiciary Committee. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the study of congressional voting behavior.

Legislating From the State Bench: A Comparative Analysis of Judicial Activism

This article considers the institutional and environmental factors that influence the degree of countermajoritarian judicial activism among state supreme courts. In our analysis, we consider two indicators of such activism: the tendency of each state court to overturn acts of the legislature and the extent to which each court engages in tort innovation. We find, contrary to much conventional wisdom, that courts in states where judges are most insulated from local partisan politics are the least likely to exhibit activist behavior. Rather, the most activist courts are in states where justices reach office through district-based electoral systems. We discuss the implications of these findings for our understanding of judicial activism and judicial behavior.

Retrospective & Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidates: The Environment & the 1988 Election

How do voters arrive at assessments of a candidates commitment to deal with environmental problems? Using the 1988 presidential election, this article explores two possible explanations: retrospective evaluations of the record of the party in office and expectations born of preconceived partisan stereotypes. After showing the importance of environmental issues in the 1988 election, the author finds that both explanations are significant predictors of the strength and direction of voter evaluations of candidates on the environment.