David J. Leatham

Stock market reaction to food recalls: a GARCH application

How food recalls due to bacterial contamination affect the stock prices of two companies are examined using a version of the financial market model that accounts for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) effects. GARCH methodology was necessary to uncover the time-varying volatility in the series and it contributed to more efficient econometric results. The initial food recall undertaken by the company is associated with reduced mean returns and higher volatility of the companies studied. Repeated recalls by the same company are not associated with strong reactions. Volatility spillovers across firms suggest potential industry-wide repercussions from bacterial contamination incidents.

Agricultural liberalization policy and commodity price volatility: a GARCH application

This study examines the effect of the recent radical agricultural liberalization policy, i.e. the 1996 FAIR Act, on agricultural commodity price volatility using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. Results of the study indicate that the agricultural liberalization policy has caused an increase in the price volatility for three major grain commodities (corn, soybeans and wheat) and little change for oats, but a decrease for cotton. These findings stand in sharp contrast to Crain and Lees observations in 1996 based on wheat markets that market-oriented measures in government farm policies tend to reduce agricultural price volatility.

THE LAW OF ONE PRICE: DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRY MARKET INTEGRATION

The Law of One Price (LOP) is important to models of international trade and exchange rate determination. This study investigates a variant of the LOP applied to developed and developing countries. The competing hypotheses are (1) that one price prevails in both developed and developing countries and (2) that one price prevails in developed countries and another single price in developing countries. Using data from an internationally competitive commodity (soybean meal), we found evidence favors the first hypothesis, although two large developing countries under study are active participants in regional trade integration, which may bias them against the first hypothesis.

Price Discovery in Wheat Futures Markets

This paper examines the price discovery function for three U.S. wheat futures markets: the Chicago Board of Trade, Kansas City Board of Trade, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange. The maintained hypothesis is that futures markets search more for information than cash markets to find an equilibrium price, thus greatly improving the price discovery function. The tests reveal the existence of one equilibrium price across the three futures markets in the long run, but no cointegration among prices in the three representative cash markets.

Effects of Federal Risk Management Programs on Optimal Acreage Allocation and Nitrogen Use in a Texas Cotton–Sorghum System

We analyze the effects of crop insurance and the Marketing Loan Program on optimal nitrogen use and acreage allocation for a case cotton-sorghum farm in Texas. A mathematical programming model is used to solve for the optimal nitrogen fertilizer rate, crop acreage allocation, coverage level, and price election factor, along with participation in the crop insurance and the Marketing Loan Program for both crops. Results show that depending on the crop and farmer risk aversion, these federal risk management programs increase or decrease optimal fertilizer rates-6% to 3%, increase optimal cotton acreage 94% to 144%, and decrease sorghum acres up to 50%.

CURRENCY CONVERTIBILITY AND LINKAGE BETWEEN CHINESE OFFICIAL AND SWAP MARKET EXCHANGE RATES

This article investigates the impact of currency convertibility under the current account on the informational linkage between official and swap market exchange rates for Chinese currency (renminbi). Findings indicate that currency convertibility increased the informational connection between the governments official exchange rate and the swap market exchange rate, exclusively traded by foreign investors, and thus improved the information content of renminbi exchange rates. Moreover, the results also suggest that more complete currency convertibility was needed for more informed renminbi exchange rates.

Profit and loss sharing in agriculture: An application of Islamic banking

This study reviews profit and loss sharing instruments used in Islamic banking. It is argued that US financial intermediaries can use profit and loss sharing instruments to provide external equity capital needed to finance agricultural production. Such an innovation would help reduce financial risk in agriculture.

Does consumer debt cause economic recession? Evidence using directed acyclic graphs

This study investigates the relationship between consumer debt and aggregate economic activity based on time series methods and directed acyclic graphs (DAG). Quarterly US data, measured over the period 1980 to 2003, on consumer debt, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, housing starts, and domestic auto sales, are analysed in an Error Correction Model (ECM). Contemporaneous innovations from this ECM are given a structural representation, using recent developments in DAG modelling. The ECM and DAG components are summarized using innovation accounting techniques (impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition). The DAG causal pattern reveals a causal flow from GDP to consumer debt; the subsequent innovation accounting results also show that consumer debt is not exogenous in contrast to GDP and other indicators. This result concurs with a previous study based on Granger causality, but contradicts other works that claim consumer debt is a root cause of aggregate economic performance.

External equity in agriculture: Risk sharing and incentives in a principal-agent relationship

The moral hazard problem which obstructs external equity financing of farm businesses is studied using the principal‐agent framework. We assume that the supplier of external equity capital (the principal) cannot directly observe the farmer’s (agent’s) effort, but can observe the random outcome of the effort. We solve for the optimal farm income‐sharing rule that includes an extra share to the agent. The extra share is dependent on the random outcome and is provided to induce optimal effort from the agent. Results show a farmer’s effort is inversely related to the level of risk aversion and the riskiness of the project. Thus, an investor must share more income when a farmer is more risk averse or a project is more risky.

Factors Affecting Commercial Bank Lending to Agriculture

A tobit econometric procedure was used to examine the effect of selected demand and supply factors on nonreal estate agricultural lending by commercial banks in Texas. Results show that banks have reduced their agricultural loan portfolios in response to increased use of interest sensitive deposits after deregulation. Moreover, almost half of this decrease came from banks that stopped making agricultural loans. Also, results show that banks affiliated with multi-bank holding companies lend less money to agriculture relative to their assets than do independent banks.