David J. Stott

Pravastatin in elderly individuals at risk of vascular disease (PROSPER): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Although statins reduce coronary and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality in middle-aged individuals, their efficacy and safety in elderly people is not fully established. Our aim was to test the benefits of pravastatin treatment in an elderly cohort of men and women with, or at high risk of developing, cardiovascular disease and stroke. METHODS We did a randomised controlled trial in which we assigned 5804 men (n=2804) and women (n=3000) aged 70-82 years with a history of, or risk factors for, vascular disease to pravastatin (40 mg per day; n=2891) or placebo (n=2913). Baseline cholesterol concentrations ranged from 4.0 mmol/L to 9.0 mmol/L. Follow-up was 3.2 years on average and our primary endpoint was a composite of coronary death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. FINDINGS Pravastatin lowered LDL cholesterol concentrations by 34% and reduced the incidence of the primary endpoint to 408 events compared with 473 on placebo (hazard ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.97, p=0.014). Coronary heart disease death and non-fatal myocardial infarction risk was also reduced (0.81, 0.69-0.94, p=0.006). Stroke risk was unaffected (1.03, 0.81-1.31, p=0.8), but the hazard ratio for transient ischaemic attack was 0.75 (0.55-1.00, p=0.051). New cancer diagnoses were more frequent on pravastatin than on placebo (1.25, 1.04-1.51, p=0.020). However, incorporation of this finding in a meta-analysis of all pravastatin and all statin trials showed no overall increase in risk. Mortality from coronary disease fell by 24% (p=0.043) in the pravastatin group. Pravastatin had no significant effect on cognitive function or disability. INTERPRETATION Pravastatin given for 3 years reduced the risk of coronary disease in elderly individuals. PROSPER therefore extends to elderly individuals the treatment strategy currently used in middle aged people.

Statins and risk of incident diabetes: a collaborative meta-analysis of randomised statin trials

BACKGROUND Trials of statin therapy have had conflicting findings on the risk of development of diabetes mellitus in patients given statins. We aimed to establish by a meta-analysis of published and unpublished data whether any relation exists between statin use and development of diabetes. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from 1994 to 2009, for randomised controlled endpoint trials of statins. We included only trials with more than 1000 patients, with identical follow-up in both groups and duration of more than 1 year. We excluded trials of patients with organ transplants or who needed haemodialysis. We used the I(2) statistic to measure heterogeneity between trials and calculated risk estimates for incident diabetes with random-effect meta-analysis. FINDINGS We identified 13 statin trials with 91 140 participants, of whom 4278 (2226 assigned statins and 2052 assigned control treatment) developed diabetes during a mean of 4 years. Statin therapy was associated with a 9% increased risk for incident diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.09; 95% CI 1.02-1.17), with little heterogeneity (I(2)=11%) between trials. Meta-regression showed that risk of development of diabetes with statins was highest in trials with older participants, but neither baseline body-mass index nor change in LDL-cholesterol concentrations accounted for residual variation in risk. Treatment of 255 (95% CI 150-852) patients with statins for 4 years resulted in one extra case of diabetes. INTERPRETATION Statin therapy is associated with a slightly increased risk of development of diabetes, but the risk is low both in absolute terms and when compared with the reduction in coronary events. Clinical practice in patients with moderate or high cardiovascular risk or existing cardiovascular disease should not change. FUNDING None.

Effects of influenza vaccination of health-care workers on mortality of elderly people in long-term care: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND Vaccination of health-care workers has been claimed to prevent nosocomial influenza infection of elderly patients in long-term care. Data are, however, limited on this strategy. We aimed to find out whether vaccination of health-care workers lowers mortality and the frequency of virologically proven influenza in such patients. METHODS In a parallel-group study, health-care workers in 20 long-term elderly-care hospitals (range 44-105 patients) were randomly offered or not offered influenza vaccine (cluster randomisation, stratified for policy for vaccination of patients and hospital size). All deaths among patients were recorded over 6 months in the winter of 1996-97. We selected a random sample of 50% of patients for virological surveillance for influenza, with combined nasal and throat swabs taken every 2 weeks during the epidemic period. Swabs were tested by tissue culture and PCR for influenza viruses A and B. FINDINGS Influenza vaccine uptake in health-care workers was 50.9% in hospitals in which they were routinely offered vaccine, compared with 4.9% in those in which they were not. The uncorrected rate of mortality in patients was 102 (13.6%) of 749 in vaccine hospitals compared with 154 (22.4%) of 688 in no-vaccine hospitals (odds ratio 0.58 [95% CI 0.40-0.84], p=0.014). The two groups did not differ for proportions of patients positive for influenza infection (5.4% and 6.7%, respectively); at necropsy, PCR was positive in none of 17 patients from vaccine hospitals and six (20%) of 30 from no-vaccine hospitals (p=0.055). INTERPRETATION Vaccination of health-care workers was associated with a substantial decrease in mortality among patients. However, virological surveillance showed no associated decrease in non-fatal influenza infection in patients.

The design of a prospective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to test the hypothesis that treatment with pravastatin will diminish risk of subsequent major vascular events in a cohort of men and women (70 to 82 years old) with preexisting vascular disease or significant risk of developing this condition. Five thousand eight hundred four men and women in addition to receiving advice on diet and smoking, have been randomized equally to treatment with 40 mg pravastatin/day or matching placebo in 3 centers (Cork, Ireland, Glasgow, Scotland, and Leiden, The Netherlands). Following an average 3.5-year intervention period, a primary assessment will be made of the influence of this therapy on major vascular events (a combination of coronary heart disease, death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and fatal and nonfatal stroke). A number of additional analyses will also be conducted on the individual components of the primary end point, on men, on women, and on subjects with and without previous evidence of vascular disease. Finally, an assessment will be made of the effects of treatment on cognitive function, disability, hospitalization or institutionalization, vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality.

Can metabolic syndrome usefully predict cardiovascular disease and diabetes? Outcome data from two prospective studies.

BACKGROUND Clinical use of criteria for metabolic syndrome to simultaneously predict risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes remains uncertain. We investigated to what extent metabolic syndrome and its individual components were related to risk for these two diseases in elderly populations. METHODS We related metabolic syndrome (defined on the basis of criteria from the Third Report of the National Cholesterol Education Program) and its five individual components to the risk of events of incident cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes in 4812 non-diabetic individuals aged 70-82 years from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). We corroborated these data in a second prospective study (the British Regional Heart Study [BRHS]) of 2737 non-diabetic men aged 60-79 years. FINDINGS In PROSPER, 772 cases of incident cardiovascular disease and 287 of diabetes occurred over 3.2 years. Metabolic syndrome was not associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease in those without baseline disease (hazard ratio 1.07 [95% CI 0.86-1.32]) but was associated with increased risk of diabetes (4.41 [3.33-5.84]) as was each of its components, particularly fasting glucose (18.4 [13.9-24.5]). Results were similar in participants with existing cardiovascular disease. In BRHS, 440 cases of incident cardiovascular disease and 105 of diabetes occurred over 7 years. Metabolic syndrome was modestly associated with incident cardiovascular disease (relative risk 1.27 [1.04-1.56]) despite strong association with diabetes (7.47 [4.90-11.46]). In both studies, body-mass index or waist circumference, triglyceride, and glucose cutoff points were not associated with risk of cardiovascular disease, but all five components were associated with risk of new-onset diabetes. INTERPRETATION Metabolic syndrome and its components are associated with type 2 diabetes but have weak or no association with vascular risk in elderly populations, suggesting that attempts to define criteria that simultaneously predict risk for both cardiovascular disease and diabetes are unhelpful. Clinical focus should remain on establishing optimum risk algorithms for each disease.

Risk Factors for Chest Infection in Acute Stroke A Prospective Cohort Study

Background and Purpose— Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality after stroke. We aimed to determine key characteristics that would allow prediction of those patients who are at highest risk for poststroke pneumonia. Methods— We studied a series of consecutive patients with acute stroke who were admitted to hospital. Detailed evaluation included the modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; the Abbreviated Mental Test; and measures of swallow, respiratory, and oral health status. Pneumonia was diagnosed by set criteria. Patients were followed up at 3 months after stroke. Results— We studied 412 patients, 391 (94.9%) with ischemic stroke and 21 (5.1%) with hemorrhagic stroke; 78 (18.9%) met the study criteria for pneumonia. Subjects who developed pneumonia were older (mean±SD age, 75.9±11.4 vs 64.9±13.9 years), had higher modified National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores, a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower Abbreviated Mental Test scores, and a higher oral cavity score, and a greater proportion tested positive for bacterial cultures from oral swabs. In binary logistic-regression analysis, independent predictors (P<0.05) of pneumonia were age >65 years, dysarthria or no speech due to aphasia, a modified Rankin Scale score ≥4, an Abbreviated Mental Test score <8, and failure on the water swallow test. The presence of 2 or more of these risk factors carried 90.9% sensitivity and 75.6% specificity for the development of pneumonia. Conclusions— Pneumonia after stroke is associated with older age, dysarthria/no speech due to aphasia, severity of poststroke disability, cognitive impairment, and an abnormal water swallow test result. Simple assessment of these variables could be used to identify patients at high risk of developing pneumonia after stroke.

Barthel Index for Stroke Trials Development, Properties, and Application

Background and Purpose— Robust measures of functional outcome are required to determine treatment effects in stroke trials. Of the various measures available, the Barthel index (BI) is one of the more prevalent. We aimed to describe validity, reliability, and responsiveness (clinimetric properties) of the BI in stroke trials. Methods— Narrative review of published articles describing clinimetric properties or use of the BI as a stroke trial end point. Results— Definitive statements on properties of BI are limited by heterogeneity in methodology of assessment and in the content of “BI” scales. Accepting these caveats, evidence suggests that BI is a valid measure of activities of daily living; sensitivity to change is limited at extremes of disability (floor and ceiling effects), and reliability of standard BI assessment is acceptable. However, these data may not be applicable to contemporary multicenter stroke trials. Conclusions— Substantial literature describing BI clinimetrics in stroke is available; however, questions remain regarding certain properties. The “BI” label is used for a number of instruments and we urge greater consistency in methods, content, and scoring. A 10-item scale, scoring 0 to 100 with 5-point increments, has been used in several multicenter stroke trials and it seems reasonable that this should become the uniform stroke trial BI.

Hemostatic Function and Progressing Ischemic Stroke D-dimer Predicts Early Clinical Progression

Background and Purpose— Early clinical progression of ischemic stroke is common and is associated with increased risk of death and dependency. We hypothesized that activation of the coagulation system is an important contributor in some cases of deterioration. We aimed to characterize alterations in circulating hemostatic markers in patients with progressing stroke. Methods— Consecutive acute ischemic stroke admissions were recruited. Progressing stroke was defined by deterioration in components of the Scandinavian Stroke Scale. Hemostatic markers (coagulation factors VIIc, VIIIc, and IXc, prothrombin fragments 1+2 [F1+2], thrombin–antithrombin complexes [TAT], D-dimer, fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor [vWF] and tissue plasminogen activator) were measured within 24 hours of symptom recognition. Results— Fifty-four (25%) of the 219 patients met criteria for progressing stroke. F1+2 (median 1.28 versus 1.06 nmol/L, P = 0.01), TAT (5.28 versus 4.07 μg/L, P < 0.01), D-dimer (443 versus 194 ng/mL, P < 0.001) and vWF (216 versus 198 IU/dL, P < 0.05) levels were higher in these patients than in stable/improving patients. In logistic regression analysis, with all important clinical and laboratory variables included, only natural log D-dimer (odds ratio [OR]: 1.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38 to 2.54; P = 0.0001) and mean arterial blood pressure (OR: 1.26 per 10 mm Hg change; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.51; P = 0.01) remained independent predictors of progressing stroke. Conclusions— There is evidence of excess thrombin generation and fibrin turnover in patients with progressing ischemic stroke. Measurement of D-dimer levels can identify patients at high risk for stroke progression. Further research is required to determine whether such patients benefit from acute interventions aimed at modifying hemostatic function.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of human longevity identifies a novel locus conferring survival beyond 90 years of age

The genetic contribution to the variation in human lifespan is ∼25%. Despite the large number of identified disease-susceptibility loci, it is not known which loci influence population mortality. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 7729 long-lived individuals of European descent (≥85 years) and 16 121 younger controls (<65 years) followed by replication in an additional set of 13 060 long-lived individuals and 61 156 controls. In addition, we performed a subset analysis in cases aged ≥90 years. We observed genome-wide significant association with longevity, as reflected by survival to ages beyond 90 years, at a novel locus, rs2149954, on chromosome 5q33.3 (OR = 1.10, P = 1.74 × 10−8). We also confirmed association of rs4420638 on chromosome 19q13.32 (OR = 0.72, P = 3.40 × 10−36), representing the TOMM40/APOE/APOC1 locus. In a prospective meta-analysis (n = 34 103), the minor allele of rs2149954 (T) on chromosome 5q33.3 associates with increased survival (HR = 0.95, P = 0.003). This allele has previously been reported to associate with low blood pressure in middle age. Interestingly, the minor allele (T) associates with decreased cardiovascular mortality risk, independent of blood pressure. We report on the first GWAS-identified longevity locus on chromosome 5q33.3 influencing survival in the general European population. The minor allele of this locus associates with low blood pressure in middle age, although the contribution of this allele to survival may be less dependent on blood pressure. Hence, the pleiotropic mechanisms by which this intragenic variation contributes to lifespan regulation have to be elucidated.

C-Reactive Protein and Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease and Global Vascular Events in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

Background— The role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in predicting vascular events and response to statin therapy remains uncertain. Additional large prospective studies are required. Methods and Results— Baseline CRP was related to risk over 3.2 years for primary a combined end point (definite or suspected death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or nonfatal stroke; n=865 events) and secondary (coronary heart disease events or stroke alone) and tertiary (stroke plus transient ischemic attack) end points in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (n=5804 men and women; age, 70 to 82 years). CRP levels were higher in subjects who had a subsequent primary end-point event compared with those who did not (geometric mean; 3.64 mg/L [SD, 3.08 mg/L] versus 3.01 mg/L [SD, 3.05 mg/L]; P<0.0001). CRP correlated positively with body mass index and smoking status and negatively with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The unadjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point was 1.48 (95% CI, 1.26 to 1.74) in a comparison of top and bottom thirds for CRP, falling to 1.36 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.61) with adjustment for established predictors and body mass index. Similar results were obtained for other end points or when results were examined separately by history of vascular disease. However, baseline CRP added minimally to risk prediction beyond conventional predictors and did not relate to the magnitude of pravastatin benefit. Conclusions— Elevated CRP minimally enhances cardiovascular disease prediction beyond established vascular risk factors and does not predict response to statin therapy in elderly subjects at risk. These data suggest that CRP has limited clinical value in cardiovascular disease risk stratification or predicting response to statin therapy in elderly people.