David Johann

Intra-Campaign Changes in Voting Preferences: The Impact of Media and Party Communication

An increasing number of citizens change and adapt their party preferences during the electoral campaign. We analyze which short-term factors explain intra-campaign changes in voting preferences, focusing on the visibility and tone of news media reporting and party canvassing. Our analyses rely on an integrative data approach, linking data from media content analysis to public opinion data. This enables us to investigate the relative impact of news media reporting as well as party communication. Inherently, we overcome previously identified methodological problems in the study of communication effects on voting behavior. Our findings reveal that campaigns matter: Especially interpersonal party canvassing increases voters’ likelihood to change their voting preferences in favor of the respective party, whereas media effects are limited to quality news outlets and depend on individual voters’ party ambivalence.

This time it’s different? Effects of the Eurovision Debate on young citizens and its consequence for EU democracy – evidence from a quasi-experiment in 24 countries

ABSTRACT For the very first time in EU history, the 2014 EP elections provided citizens with the opportunity to influence the nomination of the Commission President by casting a vote for the main Europarties’ ‘lead candidates’. By subjecting the position of the Commission President to an open political contest, many experts have formulated the expectation that heightened political competition would strengthen the weak electoral connection between EU citizens and EU legislators, which some consider a root cause for the EU’s lack of public support. In particular, this contest was on display in the so-called ‘Eurovision Debate’, a televised debate between the main contenders for the Commission President broadcasted live across Europe. Drawing on a quasi-experimental study conducted in 24 EU countries, we find that debate exposure led to increased cognitive and political involvement and EU support among young citizens. Unfortunately, the debate has only reached a very small audience.

Alternative Messverfahren rechtspopulistischen Wählens im Vergleich: Empirische Erkenntnisse aus Deutschland und Österreich

Dieser Beitrag untersucht alternative Instrumente zur Erfassung rechts-populistischen Wahlens unter Ruckgriff auf Daten aus Deutschland und Osterreich. Konkret werden zwei Erhebungsinstrumente, die eine Eindammung sozial erwunschten Antwortverhaltens in Bezug auf rechts-populistisches Wahlen versprechen, kritisch gepruft: 1) Propensity to Vote (PTV)-Fragen und die 2) Item Count Technique (ICT). Um den Nutzen dieser Instrumente fur die Messung rechts-populistischen Wahlens zu evaluieren, werden die verschiedenen Moglichkeiten sowohl deskriptiv als auch multivariat analysiert. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die alternativen Messverfahren nicht zu valideren Ergebnissen fuhren als die klassische Sonntagsfrage, dass aber zumindest PTV-Fragen ohne grosere Bedenken zur Erfassung rechts-populistischen Wahlens verwendet werden konnen.

Need for support or economic competition? Implicit associations with immigrants during the 2015 migrant crisis

How did the Austrian public think about immigrants at the peak of the 2015 migrant crisis? News media and policy makers suggested a cleavage in public opinion along the lines of humanitarian support and economic competition. We empirically disentangle these groups using a Single Category Implicit Association Test (SC-IAT). The data were collected by Project Implicit as a part of an online panel survey initiated by the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES). The analyses reveal that Austrian citizens predominantly associate immigrants with the need for support. However, implicit associations also seem to vary depending on citizens’ backgrounds and beliefs. The findings further indicate that implicit associations towards immigrants affect citizens’ policy preferences.

Testing the Validity of the Crosswise Model: A Study on Attitudes Towards Muslims

This paper investigates the concurrent validity of the Crosswise Model when “high incidence behaviour” is concerned by looking at respondents’ self-reported attitudes towards Muslims. We analyse the concurrent validity by comparing the performance of the Crosswise Model to a Direct Question format. The Crosswise Model was designed to ensure anonymity and confidentiality in order to reduce Social Desirability Bias induced by the tendency of survey respondents to present themselves in a favourable light. The article suggests that measures obtained using either question format are fairly similar. However, when estimating models and comparing the impact of common predictors of negative attitudes towards Muslims, some puzzling results are revealed raising concerns about the validity of the Crosswise Model.