David K. Ding

A New Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Emerging Markets: A Revisit

Using a nonparametric variance ratio (VR) test, we revisit the empirical validity of the random walk hypothesis in eight emerging markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). After correcting for measurement biases caused by thin and infrequent trading prevalent in nascent and small stock markets, we cannot reject the random walk hypothesis for the MENA markets. We conclude that a nonparametric VR test is appropriate for emerging stock markets, and argue that our findings can reconcile previously contradictory results regarding the efficiency of MENA markets.

An investigation of price discovery in informationally-linked markets: equity trading in Malaysia and Singapore

Abstract Using transactions data for the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES) for a major Malaysian conglomerate, Sime Darby Berhad, and intraday exchange rate data, we investigate whether and to what extent each exchange contributes to price discovery. Results indicate that the price series are cointegrated. The raw data appear to indicate the presence of arbitrage opportunities, but none exist after taking exchange rate changes into account. Using the common long-memory factors of Gonzalo and Granger (1995, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 1–9), we show that while the majority of the price discovery (approximately 70%) occurs in the home country (Malaysia), the 26–32% of the price discovery attributable to the SES is statistically significant and exceeds Singapore’s share of the trading volume. Further, we find evidence of strong error correction of Singapore prices to Malaysian prices, but only weak error correction of Malaysian prices to Singapore prices.

The determinants of bid‐ask spreads in the foreign exchange futures market: A microstructure analysis

This paper investigates and analyzes the intraday and daily determinants of bid‐ask spreads (BASs) in the foreign exchange futures (FXF) market. It is found that the number of transactions and the volatility of FXF prices are the major determinants. The number of transactions is negatively related to the BAS, whereas volatility in general is positively related to it. The study also finds that there are economies of scale in trading FXF contracts. The intraday BAS follows a U‐shaped pattern, and they tend to be higher on Mondays and Tuesdays than on other days of the week. Higher spreads at the beginning and end of a trading day are consistent with the presence of adverse selection and the avoidance of the possibility of carrying undesirable inventory overnight, respectively. Seasonal differences in BASs that are related to the delivery date of a contract are also found.

Causes and Effects of Employee Stock Option Plans: Evidence from Singapore

Abstract This study highlights the determinants for the adoption of employee stock option plans (ESOPs) in Singapore and measures the impact of ESOP announcements on the shareholder wealth of adopting companies. We find that ESOP value is positively associated with a firms growth opportunities but negatively related to interest coverage. Although larger firms are more likely to adopt ESOPs relative to smaller ones, among those that use ESOPs, the larger firms tend to use less ESOPs than the smaller ones. A further investigation of the market response to the adoption of ESOPs shows that the stock price reacts positively to such announcements, suggesting that investors view ESOPs favorably. The evidence demonstrates that ESOPs tend to align managerial with shareholder interests and contribute to the improvement of company performance.

An Analysis of Transactions Data for the Stock Exchange of Singapore: Patterns, Absolute Price Change, Trade Size and Number of Transactions

The availability of the transactions data of the Stock Exchange of Singapore allows us to examine intraday patterns and the relation among absolute price change, trade size and number of transactions. The presence of a trading halt in the mid-day results in two crude U-shaped return patterns but, contrary to Brock and Kleidons (1992) model, it does not cause volume to be unusually high right before or after the halt. We find a positive relationship between absolute price changes and the number of transactions for both the active and inactive stocks. This supports the findings of Jones, Kaul and Lipson (1994) that these relationships also hold at the intraday level and in a market with different market architecture. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001.

Maturity Effect on Bid-Ask Spreads of OTC Currency Options

The paper ascertains the relation between bid-ask spreads and the contract maturity of OTC currency options. Contrary to previous findings in the futures market, spreads of currency options are found to be negatively related to the contracts term-to-maturity. The negative relation persists even after controlling for the effects of price risks, competition, and trading activity. The pronounced differences in the term-to-maturity results are attributable to the market risk effect and differences in the market structure of options and futures markets.

Bid-Ask Bounce and Spreads in the Foreign Exchange Futures Market

This paper examines the intraday bid-ask bounce in Deutschemark and Japanese yen futures prices. The intraday Markovian bid-ask bounce process, which leads to a desirable equilibrium condition of reaching a bid or an ask transaction type with equal chances, is identified. A second-order Markov chain transition matrix model is used to derive a generalized estimator of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange futures market. It incorporates the conditional probabilities of a subsequent transaction being the same type as the current transactions (δ) and that of the next transaction being the same as the current type but different from the previous type (α). The specification is {-Cov(ΔPt,ΔPt+1)/[(1−δ)(−α)]}1/2. The empirical results show that the average implied bid-ask spread is about

Searching for periods of volatility: A study of the behavior of volatility in Thai stocks

10, which is less than one ticks value of

The information content of FDI announcements: Evidence from an emerging market

12.50. It is also found that spreads are higher at the beginning and end of the trading day than the rest of the day, reflecting the uncertainty due to information flows and overnight inventory carrying costs, respectively.

Price Movers on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: Evidence from a Fully Automated Order‐Driven Market

Abstract This paper improves the precision of the useful new procedure of Inclan and Tiao (1994) that estimates variance shift points in a time series. It accomplishes this by incorporating the evidence of Bos and Fetherston (1992) that the linear Brown, Durbin, and Evans ( Brown et al., 1975 ) critical CUSUM of squares boundaries [used by Inclan and Tiao] produce an understatement of instability at the data end points. This is solved by Tanizaki (1995) which, like Bos and Fetherston, 1992 , Bos and Fetherston, 1995 , uses the fact that the CUSUM of squares statistic follows a beta distribution. This study uses the Inclan and Tiao procedure with the nonlinear Tanizaki CUSUM of squares boundaries to research volatility in Thai stock returns. The papers empirical results show that, on any trading day, there is a 1.16% chance that a Thai stock will experience a shift in volatility. The results also show that this incidence is not random, and, hence, it is possible to predict the incidence of shifts. Though the results here cannot answer the question of how to do this, we suspect that movements in average return have a role to play. We propose that the culprit may be changes in the average return, and therefore that the estimated volatility shift points may be spurious.