David K. Musto

Stocks are special too: an analysis of the equity lending market

With a year of equity loans by a major lender, we measure the effect of actual short-selling costs and constraints on trading strategies that involve short-selling. We find the loans of initial public offering (IPOs), DotCom, large-cap, growth and low-momentum stocks to be cheap relative to the strategies’ documented profits and that investors who can short only stocks that are cheap and easy to borrow can enjoy at least some of the profits of unconstrained investors. Most IPOs are loaned on their first settlement days and throughout their first months, and the underperformance around lockup expiration is significant even for the IPOs that are cheap and easy to borrow. The effect of short-selling frictions appears strongest in merger arbitrage. Acquirers’ stock is expensive to borrow, especially when the acquirer is small, though the major influence on trading profits is not through expense but availability.

Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds

We present evidence that fund managers inf late quarter-end portfolio prices with last-minute purchases of stocks already held. The magnitude of price inf lation ranges from 0.5 percent per year for large-cap funds to well over 2 percent for small-cap funds. We find that the cross section of inf lation matches the cross section of incentives from the f low0performance relation, that a surge of trading in the quarter’s last minutes coincides with a surge in equity prices, and that the inf lation is greatest for the stocks held by funds with the most incentive to inf late, controlling for the stocks’ size and performance. QUARTER-END AND ESPECIALLY YEAR-END equity mutual fund prices are abnormally high. We present strong evidence that some mutual fund managers mark up their holdings at quarter end through aggressive trading of stocks they already hold. Funds with the greatest ability and most incentive to improve their performance exhibit the largest turn-of-quarter effect. Intradaily data show a surge of transactions and transaction prices in the quarter’s last few minutes, and fund-holdings data show a larger effect in the funds with the most incentive to mark up. Considering that open-end equity funds intermediate

What Happens When Information Leaves a Market? Evidence from Postbankruptcy Consumers

3.46 trillion ~year-end 1999!, 1 this turn-of-quarter inf lation of their prices is a significant opportunity for potential sellers, and a significant hazard for everybody else. In general, open-end domestic equity mutual funds calculate their net asset values per share ~NAVs! from the closing transaction prices of their holdings.

What Do Consumers’ Fund Flows Maximize? Evidence from Their Brokers’ Incentives

Federal law mandates the removal of personal bankruptcies from credit reports after 10 years. The removals effect is market efficiency in reverse. The short-term effect is a spurious boost in apparent creditworthiness, especially for the more creditworthy bankrupts, delivering a substantial increase in both credit scores and the number and aggregate limit of bank cards. The longer-term effect is lower scores and higher delinquency than initial full-information scores predict. These findings relate to both the debate over the bankruptcy code and the wisdom of influencing market clearing by removing information.

Trading and Voting

We ask whether mutual funds’ flows reflect the incentives of the brokers intermediating them. The incentives we address are those revealed in statutory filings: the brokers’ shares of sales loads and other revenue, and their affiliation with the fund family. We find significant effects of these payments to brokers on funds’ inflows, particularly when the brokers are not affiliated. Tracking these investments forward, we find load sharing, but not revenue sharing, to predict poor performance, consistent with the different incentives these payments impart. We identify one benefit of captive brokerage, which is the recapture of redemptions elsewhere in the family.

Notes on Bonds: Illiquidity Feedback During the Financial Crisis

Complete financial markets transform the political choice between candidates with different redistribution policies. If redistribution policies do not affect aggregate wealth, then financial trade implies that wealth considerations have no effect on voting and so do not affect who wins. However, an election in which one candidate would redistribute results in redistribution, and redistribution is the same whether or not he wins. Furthermore, he proposes, and if elected carries out, more redistribution than he prefers. If redistribution policies do affect aggregate wealth, then everybody expects more wealth if the candidate with the higher aggregate‐wealth policy wins.

Does Junior Inherit? Refinancing and the Blocking Power of Second Mortgages

We address the connection between market stress and asset pricing by analyzing a large and systematic discrepancy arising among off-the-run U.S. Treasury securities during the crisis. We begin by showing that bonds traded for much less than notes with identical maturity and coupon. The gap exceeded five percent in December 2008. We then ask how the small differences between these securities, in particular their liquidity, could project to such a large gap in prices. We gauge the potential for bond-note arbitrage in two ways. First, with data on repurchase rates and fails, we highlight the frictions arbitrageurs encountered in funding a short position in the notes. Second, with daily transactions data on trades by insurance companies, who are large buy-and-hold fixed income investors, we relate demand for the expensive but liquid note to the cross section of insurers’ characteristics. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia PA 19104. Department of Finance: David Musto, (215) 898-2323, musto@wharton.upenn.edu. Department of Risk & Insurance: Greg Nini, greg30@wharton.upenn.edu, (215) 898-0310. Department of Finance: Krista Schwarz, (215) 898-6087, kschwarz@wharton.upenn.edu. We are grateful to the Dean’s Research Fund of the Wharton School for data funding. We are particularly grateful to Michael Bulboff, who provided outstanding research assistance. All remaining errors are our own. Notes on Bonds: Liquidity at all Costs in the Great Recession Abstract: We address the connection between market stress and asset pricing by analyzing a large and systematic discrepancy arising among off-the-run U.S. Treasury securities during the crisis. We begin by showing that bonds traded for much less than notes with identical maturity and coupon, with the gap exceeding five percent in December 2008. We then ask how the small differences between these securities, in particular their liquidity, could project to such a large gap in prices. We gauge the potential for bond-note arbitrage in two ways. First, with data on repurchase rates and fails, we highlight the frictions arbitrageurs encountered in funding a short position in the notes. Second, with daily transactions data on trades by insurance companies, who are large buy-and-hold fixed income investors, we relate demand for the expensive but liquid note to the cross section of insurers’ characteristics. We address the connection between market stress and asset pricing by analyzing a large and systematic discrepancy arising among off-the-run U.S. Treasury securities during the crisis. We begin by showing that bonds traded for much less than notes with identical maturity and coupon, with the gap exceeding five percent in December 2008. We then ask how the small differences between these securities, in particular their liquidity, could project to such a large gap in prices. We gauge the potential for bond-note arbitrage in two ways. First, with data on repurchase rates and fails, we highlight the frictions arbitrageurs encountered in funding a short position in the notes. Second, with daily transactions data on trades by insurance companies, who are large buy-and-hold fixed income investors, we relate demand for the expensive but liquid note to the cross section of insurers’ characteristics.We trace the evolution of extreme illiquidity discounts among Treasury securities during the financial crisis, when bond prices fell more than 6% below more liquid but otherwise identical notes. Using high-resolution data on market quality and trader identities and characteristics, we find that the discounts amplify through feedback loops, where cheaper, less-liquid securities flow to longer-horizon investors, thereby increasing their illiquidity and thus their appeal to these investors. The effect of the widened liquidity gap on transactions costs is further amplified by a surge in the price liquidity providers charge for access to their balance sheets in the crisis. Received September 28, 2016; editorial decision January 2, 2018 by Editor Philip Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

The Limits to Dividend Arbitrage: Implications for Cross Border Investment

Refinancing a first mortgage puts legal principles in conflict when other, junior, liens also exist. On one hand, the principle that seniority follows time priority leaves the new refinancing mortgage junior to mortgages that were junior to the original, refinanced first mortgage. On the other hand, the principle of equitable subrogation gives the refinancing mortgage the seniority of the claim it paid down. States resolve this tension differently, thus differentiating how much a second mortgage impedes refinancing of the first. We exploit this cross-state variation to identify the impact on mortgage refinancing and find that refinancing is significantly more likely in the states following the principle of equitable subrogation when the homeowner also has a second mortgage.

Mutual Fund Survivorship

The economic significance of the tax on cross-border dividends depends on the limits to dividend arbitrage. In the case of Canadian payments to the U.S. we observe these limits exactly because we see the actual pricing of the dividend-arbitrage transactions. These transactions recover only some withholding, so that Canadian and non-tax U.S. accounts perceive different expected returns from Canadian stocks, where the difference increases with dividend yield. The resulting difference in expected utility of wealth is small but the difference in efficient portfolio weights is potentially large and increasing in yield, and the actual difference between Canadian and U.S. holdings of Canadian stocks is large and increasing in yield. Governments may thus take advantage of robust financial markets to boost domestic governance of domestic firms at a low utility cost, though this may be more preferable for zero-dividend firms, whose governance moves abroad.