David Kim Hin Ho

Artificial Intelligence and the Mass Appraisal of Residential Apartments

Introduces the theory of artificial neural networks (ANN). Discusses its application to the valuation of residential apartments. Compares the performance of the back propagation neural network (BP) model in estimating sale prices of apartments against the traditional multiple regression analysis (MRA) model. Concludes that the neural network model is an easy‐to‐use, black‐box alternative to the MRA model.

Land value capture mechanisms in Hong Kong and Singapore

Hong Kong and Singapore are characterized by rapid economic development and a high population density of 6,250 and 6,055 per km2 land respectively. Land revenue is their major source of income to finance their public infrastructure and social services. Their design and collection of taxes on land, their value‐capture instruments and their allocation of revenue for public works are examined. The article finds that there are some similarities between the two cities in capturing land value, such as the collection of annual rates and stamp duty on property. The differences include the adoption of property tax surcharge and the development charge. In fact, each mechanism has its pros and cons. The method and the extent of each mechanism depend on the goals of the government in respect of the social and economic conditions.

Crisis management: a survey of property development firms

A study of property developers in Singapore showed that their crisis management capabilities are influenced by their size and opinion. Developers generally concentrate on preparing formal procedures to deal with crises pertaining to breakdowns. Explicit procedures to deal with crises in the areas of psychopathology and human resource factors were often found lacking. Few developers implement damage containment mechanisms for external information attack and human resource factors, much less effect the same for psychopathic attacks. Developers have identified the key personnel, tasks, services and products necessary to conduct business operations. However, the ability of developers to recover from crisis situations is hampered by the lack of alternative sites for their critical operations and backups to crucial business function. Although it is the requirement of the developers to discuss the lessons learned for those involved in accidents and crisis, the ability to learn from past mistakes is often impeded by the assignment of blame.

Asset allocation: International real estate investment strategy under a workable analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise a workable strategic asset allocation (SAA) model, given the data paucity problem, and involve an ex ante framework that is distributional free. Design/methodology/approach – The SAA model is developed within a semi‐quantitative and expert‐based framework – the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) – and not a purely time‐series one. It is developed on the basis of consensus by a group of real estate investment experts, who agree on a fixed investment time horizon so that the time factor is disregarded as a variant. The SAA becomes the interface around which a set of tactical bands is imposed, subject to the Markowitz mean‐variance optimisation, and utilizing the total‐return data set of the Jones Lang LaSalle Real Estate Intelligence Service‐Asia. The lower and upper limits of the tactical bands represent the cyclical attractiveness of the various Asian office markets as growth and value‐added markets Findings – The SAA‐AHP model robustly reflects expert judgement among a cohesive group of real estate investment experts, with regard to a Pan‐Asia office market portfolio of eight major Asian cities. Through pair‐wise comparisons and subject to consistency checks in terms of the consistency ratio of <0.10, then the comparative expert assessment of the macro‐economic and the real estate specific factors driving individual Asian real estate markets, would be consistent (i.e. non conflicting). Then the total weighted evaluations of individual markets are derived and deployed as the SAA portfolio mix. This portfolio mix thus becomes the appropriate interface, around which the tactical asset allocation (TAA) is developed within defined tactical bands. These bands must be in line with the underlying Asian real estate market analysis and their cyclical positions. The TAA is obtained through the Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio optimisation, with the objective of locating the optimally efficient TAA on the Markowitz efficient frontier, under a maximising risk‐adjusted‐return Sharpe ratio. Originality/value – The SAA‐AHP model is reliant on an ex ante assessment of alternative asset allocation strategies on the basis of expert judgement of the macroeconomic environment and the Asian office markets. It is an appropriate SAA alternative to one based on the typical economic‐sized indicators, for example, the urban GDP.

International Real Estate

International Real Estate: Asias Potential from a Research Perspective considers real estate market analysis in the context of economic theory pertaining to market disequilibria, utilizing data from major cities in Asia as case studies. This framework makes it possible to determine what really defines an Asian real estate sector: What is being measured? How does it behave (in terms of price and non-price factors)? How it is structured? How effectively does it achieve sustainable total returns? And how does it manage real estate market uncertainty? Real estate market uncertainty originates from both the demand- and supply-side of the market. The market responds to structural macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that in turn are affected by related public policies. These elements interact to affect Asian real estate in unique ways since the Asian currency crisis in 1997. David Hos analysis shows that while the details of real estate market analysis are different for the various Asian cities (and their real estate sectors) owing to their different stages of maturity, underlying principles nevertheless apply. He also looks at managing real estate market uncertainty at the portfolio level through the analytical techniques of real estate asset allocation, real estate value-at-risk(VaR), real option analysis and pricing.

Asset Value Enhancement of Singapore’s Public Housing Main Upgrading Programme (MUP) Policy: A Real Option Analysis Approach

The main upgrading programme (MUP) is a major policy implemented by the Singapore Housing Development Board (HDB) since the 1990s. This heavily subsidised policy is highly targeted in order to enhance the social and economic value of public housing in Singapore. It benefits HDB households residing in the older HDB housing estates in terms of both an enhanced asset value of the household’s flat and a quality living environment. An HDB flat owner whose precinct is selected for upgrading under the MUP policy is envisaged to be holding a call option to upgrade his flat, as this option to upgrade is valuable and it has an opportunity to command a higher price in the HDB resale market. This paper estimates the option premiums for upgrading by utilising the intuitive and explicit numerical method solution of the binomial real option pricing model and the Samuelson—McKean closed-form solution. The embedded real option premiums under the MUP policy are estimated at S

Real Estate Market Cyclical Dynamics: The prime office sectors of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong

10 300 and S

Examining structural changes in Asian offices market

2 000 for the popular three-room HDB flat and four-room HDB flat respectively. It is also found that government subsidies have a significant impact on the option premiums.

Office price index lagging in Singapore and Hong Kong

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks? Design/methodology/approach - – Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers. Findings - – The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant. Practical implications - – The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing. Originality/value - – The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.

DYNAMICS OF ASSISTED HOMEOWNERSHIP IN SINGAPORE

Abstract It is complicated to measure the effects of various economic events on office markets within a non-parameter modeling framework. In response to this issue, a non-parametric statistical method-wavelet analysis is introduced in this study. Based on this innovative technique, we not only could detect the abrupt change points with a comparatively small data sample, but also could evaluate the impact from the abrupt change points by reconstructing the wavelet coefficient/de-noising the raw data, which had never been considered in previous studies of office markets. Our empirical results suggest that the wavelet reconstruction method, to some extent, makes it easier for the detection of the existence of structural change points. More interestingly, our findings also indicate that free market economies (i.e. Hong Kong and Singapore) are mainly influenced by the effects of global events, whereas the actual (net) impact on socialist economies (i.e. Beijing and Shanghai), depends on both the openness of the economies, and the magnitude of counter domestic forces put in place.