David Kowalewski

Dynamic Models of Dissent and Repression

The connection between dissent and repression has been the topic of much theory and empirical research, but little agreement on the relationship can be found. We reconceptualize the linkage in terms of an interactive process model of changes in the grievances and resourcemobilizations of dissident movement and regime countermovement. Diachronic modeling is proposed as superior to the cross-sectional approach for unraveling dissent-repression interactions. Dynamic modeling techniques are employed to experiment with three linear “mutuality models” using the scope and intensity dimensions of dissent and repression. Our findings reveal significant similarities and differences among the models studied that would be difficult to intuit from conventional methods. Dynamic modeling of complex rivalry relationships emerges as a potentially useful methodology for constructing effective policies of conflict resolution.

Environmental attitudes in town and country: A community survey

Considerable debate surrounds the question of differences between non‐rural/non‐farm and rural/farm citizens on environmental issues. A survey of a western New York county reveals significant differences between non‐farmers and farmers, but none between non‐ruralites and ruralites. Farmers were more environmentally protective and desirous of limits to technology, but less deeply‐ecological, than non‐farmers. Specifications for education and political ideology, however, suggested some qualifications to the findings. The implications for research on environmental attitudes in town and country are then discussed.

Periphery Revolutions in World-System Perspective, 1821-1985

Periphery revolutions from 1821 to 1985 are surveyed in light of the world-system perspective. Theoretical propositions regarding secular trends and cycles are tested for revolutionary activity and success. Revolution is shown to vary with the trends as well as the rhythms—world-leadership cycle and Kondratieff longwaves—of the world system. Although an upward trend in revolutionary activity is observable, no such growth of revolutionary success is evidenced. Revolutionary activity increases during Kondratieff upswings; revolutionary success is more common during the deconcentration phase of the world-leadership cycle. The implications of the findings for world-system stability are discussed.

The Validity of Selected Correlates of Unexcused Absences in a Four-Year Private College

The correlates of unexcused class absences were examined through interview of students at a small liberal arts college. Possible predictors included the students sex, residence, personal payment of college expenses, major, year in college, bar attendance, marijuana use, and interest in courses. The most valid indicators of absences were bar attendance and marijuana use. In addition, attendance proved positively and significantly correlated with grade point average. The implications of the findings for parents, administrators, teachers, and students were discussed.

Sexism, Racism, and Establishmentism:

Both racism and sexism have proven to be intractable problems in modem industrial society. Two types of explanation, the cultural/psychological and the structural, have vied for attention in the voluminous discussion surrounding these twin issues. The present article briefly reviews the arguments of these two competing theories. It then presents some evidence that the structural or political/economic perspective may have somewhat greater utility.

Cultism, Insurgency, and Vigilantism in the Philippines

Early studies of church, state, and cult assumed that the church usually supports the state and, together with the state, opposes the cult. The cult, in turn, is alienated from both. The case of the present-day Philippines indicates that, in the context of Third World revolutionary turmoil, the roles are far more complex. This article examines the use of cultist vigilantes against communist insurgents. Media data suggest that cultist counterinsurgents have a destabilizing effect, furthering the alienation of cults from society and of church members from religious and political establishments.

Counterinsurgent Vigilantism and Public Response: A Philippine Case Study

Vigilantism against political dissent is a common phenomenon which provokes intense reactions from a number of social sectors. But what shape do these reactions take? Two competing models, crystallized simplicity and fluid complexity, make differing predictions about the dimensionality of issues, social grouping, and temporal dynamics of public concern. Issue dimensions, sectoral clustering, and change of opinion over time are examined with data on counterinsurgent vigilantes in the Philippines. Seven dimensions of opinion were observable: displacement, unrepresentativeness, terror, elite mobilization, extralegality, grievance nonredress, and destabilization. With respect to these seven issue dimensions, social sectors fell into five coalitional clusters: counterinsurgent functionaries, lumpen class, peace and justice coalition, legal lobby, and populist organizations. Most sectors became alienated from the vigilantes over time and polarization occurred on the issues of displacement, unrepresentativeness, and grievance nonredress. The superiority of the fluid complexity model is suggested.

The Great Disaster

To understand the Global Establishment in the North and Asia, one must first examine the historical context from which it emerged, for its current form is rooted in the recent past. The previous chapter suggested that, when national establishments develop, they begin to merge with national establishments abroad, creating transnationalized networks of elites. This chapter suggests that transnational cooperation developed also as a response of Northern elites to a struggle for survival. The merging of Northern and Asian establishments was overdetermined.

Countermovement vigilantism and human rights

Vigilante groups designed to counter dissident movements are common across the world. Although these groups systematically violate the rights of citizens, little theoretical work has examined the phenomenon. The paper develops a theory and set of corresponding propositions on the origins, behaviors, and consequences of counter-dissident vigilantism. The implications for promoting international human rights are then discussed.Groups of private citizens designed to counter dissident movements have become a major concern of human rights organizations. Not only are counter-dissident vigilantes responsible for violations of rights in a wide variety of settings, but rights workers are often themselves the victims of their attacks. The paper develops a theory and set of propositions about counterdissident vigilantism and concludes with strategic implications for rights organizations.

The future World‐system? A dynamic model

The growing complexity of global political economy renders difficult our understanding of important phenomena and the forecasting of their trajectories. Global‐historical theory, modeled dynamically, offers a useful approach for integrating a large array of variables and plotting their changes over time. We construct a global dynamic model, based on a modified version of world‐systems theory, to plot the trajectories of key phenomena. Although the findings suggest the longterm stability of the system, considerable dynamism is observable for population, janissarization, capital concentration and intensity, core‐core conflict, and the power of international governmental organizations. Disturbing changes are also evident for nonelite incomes, inequality, government resources, and anti‐systemic movements. The implications of the findings are then discussed.