David M. Benedek

Predicting suicides after outpatient mental health visits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS)

The 2013 US Veterans Administration/Department of Defense Clinical Practice Guidelines (VA/DoD CPG) require comprehensive suicide risk assessments for VA/DoD patients with mental disorders but provide minimal guidance on how to carry out these assessments. Given that clinician-based assessments are not known to be strong predictors of suicide, we investigated whether a precision medicine model using administrative data after outpatient mental health specialty visits could be developed to predict suicides among outpatients. We focused on male nondeployed Regular US Army soldiers because they account for the vast majority of such suicides. Four machine learning classifiers (naive Bayes, random forests, support vector regression and elastic net penalized regression) were explored. Of the Army suicides in 2004–2009, 41.5% occurred among 12.0% of soldiers seen as outpatient by mental health specialists, with risk especially high within 26 weeks of visits. An elastic net classifier with 10–14 predictors optimized sensitivity (45.6% of suicide deaths occurring after the 15% of visits with highest predicted risk). Good model stability was found for a model using 2004–2007 data to predict 2008–2009 suicides, although stability decreased in a model using 2008–2009 data to predict 2010–2012 suicides. The 5% of visits with highest risk included only 0.1% of soldiers (1047.1 suicides/100u2009000 person-years in the 5 weeks after the visit). This is a high enough concentration of risk to have implications for targeting preventive interventions. An even better model might be developed in the future by including the enriched information on clinician-evaluated suicide risk mandated by the VA/DoD CPG to be recorded.

Mitochondria-focused gene expression profile reveals common pathways and CPT1B dysregulation in both rodent stress model and human subjects with PTSD

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a trauma-related mental disorder, is associated with mitochondrial dysfunction in the brain. However, the biologic approach to identifying the mitochondria-focused genes underlying the pathogenesis of PTSD is still in its infancy. Previous research, using a human mitochondria-focused cDNA microarray (hMitChip3) found dysregulated mitochondria-focused genes present in postmortem brains of PTSD patients, indicating that those genes might be PTSD-related biomarkers. To further test this idea, this research examines profiles of mitochondria-focused gene expression in the stressed-rodent model (inescapable tail shock in rats), which shows characteristics of PTSD-like behaviors and also in the blood of subjects with PTSD. This study found that 34 mitochondria-focused genes being upregulated in stressed-rat amygdala. Ten common pathways, including fatty acid metabolism and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPAR) pathways were dysregulated in the amygdala of the stressed rats. Carnitine palmitoyltransferase 1B (CPT1B), an enzyme in the fatty acid metabolism and PPAR pathways, was significantly over-expressed in the amygdala (P<0.007) and in the blood (P<0.01) of stressed rats compared with non-stressed controls. In human subjects with (n=28) or without PTSD (n=31), significant over-expression of CPT1B in PTSD was also observed in the two common dysregulated pathways: fatty acid metabolism (P=0.0027, false discovery rate (FDR)=0.043) and PPAR (P=0.006, FDR=0.08). Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction validated the microarray findings and the CPT1B result. These findings indicate that blood can be used as a specimen in the search for PTSD biomarkers in fatty acid metabolism and PPAR pathways, and, in addition, that CPT1B may contribute to the pathology of PTSD.

Corticosterone mitigates the stress response in an animal model of PTSD

Activation of glucocorticoid receptor signaling in the stress response to traumatic events has been implicated in the pathogenesis of stress-associated psychiatric disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Elevated startle response and hyperarousal are hallmarks of PTSD, and are generally considered to evince fear (DSM V). To further examine the efficacy of corticosterone in treating hyperarousal and elevated fear, the present study utilized a learned helplessness stress model in which rats are restrained and subjected to tail shock for three days. These stressed rats develop a delayed long-lasting exaggeration of the acoustic startle response (ASR) and retarded body weight growth, similar to symptoms of PTSD patients (Myers et al., 2005; Speed et al., 1989). We demonstrate that both pre-stress and post-stress administration of corticosterone (3 mg/kg/day) mitigates a subsequent exaggeration of the ASR measured 14 days after cessation of the stress protocol. Furthermore, the mitigating efficacy of pre-stress administration of corticosterone (3 mg/kg/day for three days) appeared to last significantly longer, up to 21 days after the cessation of the stress protocol, in comparison to that of post-stress administration of corticosterone. However, pre-stress administration of corticosterone at 0.3 mg/kg/day for three days did not mitigate stress-induced exaggeration of the ASR measured at both 14 and 21 days after the cessation of the stress protocol. In addition, pre-stress administration of corticosterone (3 mg/kg/day for three days) mitigates the retardation of body weight growth otherwise resulting from the stress protocol. Congruently, co-administration of the corticosterone antagonist RU486 (40 mg/kg/day for three days) with corticosterone (3 mg/kg/day) prior to stress diminished the mitigating efficacy of the exogenous corticosterone on exaggerated ASR and stress-retarded body weight. The relative efficacy of pre versus post administration of corticosterone and high versus low dose of corticosterone on stress-induced exaggeration of innate fear response and stress-retarded body weight growth indicate that exogenous corticosterone administration within an appropriate time window and dosage are efficacious in diminishing traumatic stress induced pathophysiological processes. Clinical implications associated with the efficacy of prophylactic and therapeutic corticosterone therapy for mitigating symptoms of PTSD are discussed, particularly in relation to diminishing hyperarousal and exaggerated innate fear response.

Using self-report surveys at the beginning of service to develop multi-outcome risk models for new soldiers in the U.S. Army

BACKGROUNDnThe U.S. Army uses universal preventives interventions for several negative outcomes (e.g. suicide, violence, sexual assault) with especially high risks in the early years of service. More intensive interventions exist, but would be cost-effective only if targeted at high-risk soldiers. We report results of efforts to develop models for such targeting from self-report surveys administered at the beginning of Army service.nnnMETHODSn21 832 new soldiers completed a self-administered questionnaire (SAQ) in 2011-2012 and consented to link administrative data to SAQ responses. Penalized regression models were developed for 12 administratively-recorded outcomes occurring by December 2013: suicide attempt, mental hospitalization, positive drug test, traumatic brain injury (TBI), other severe injury, several types of violence perpetration and victimization, demotion, and attrition.nnnRESULTSnThe best-performing models were for TBI (AUC = 0.80), major physical violence perpetration (AUC = 0.78), sexual assault perpetration (AUC = 0.78), and suicide attempt (AUC = 0.74). Although predicted risk scores were significantly correlated across outcomes, prediction was not improved by including risk scores for other outcomes in models. Of particular note: 40.5% of suicide attempts occurred among the 10% of new soldiers with highest predicted risk, 57.2% of male sexual assault perpetrations among the 15% with highest predicted risk, and 35.5% of female sexual assault victimizations among the 10% with highest predicted risk.nnnCONCLUSIONSnData collected at the beginning of service in self-report surveys could be used to develop risk models that define small proportions of new soldiers accounting for high proportions of negative outcomes over the first few years of service.