David M. Shahian

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 1--coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

BACKGROUND The first version of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (STS NCD) was developed nearly 2 decades ago. Since its inception, the number of participants has grown dramatically, patient acuity has increased, and overall outcomes have consistently improved. To adjust for these and other changes, all STS risk models have undergone periodic revisions. This report provides a detailed description of the 2008 STS risk model for coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). METHODS The study population consisted of 774,881 isolated CABG procedures performed on adult patients aged 20 to 100 years between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2006, at 819 STS NCD participating centers. This cohort was randomly divided into a 60% training (development) sample and a 40% test (validation) sample. The development sample was used to identify predictor variables and estimate model coefficients. The validation sample was used to assess model calibration and discrimination. Model outcomes included operative mortality, renal failure, stroke, reoperation for any cause, prolonged ventilation, deep sternal wound infection, composite major morbidity or mortality, prolonged length of stay (> 14 days), and short length of stay (< 6 days and alive). Candidate predictor variables were selected based on their availability in versions 2.35, 2.41, and 2.52.1 of the STS NCD and their presence in (or ability to be mapped to) version 2.61. Potential predictor variables were screened for overall prevalence in the study population, missing data frequency, coding concerns, bivariate relationships with outcomes, and their presence in previous STS or other CABG risk models. Supervised backwards selection was then performed with input from an expert panel of cardiac surgeons and biostatisticians. After successfully validating the fit of the models, the development and validation samples were subsequently combined, and the final regression coefficients were estimated using the overall combined (development plus validation) sample. RESULTS The c-index for the mortality model was 0.812, and the c-indices for other endpoints ranged from 0.653 for reoperation to 0.793 for renal failure in the validation sample. Plots of observed versus predicted event rates revealed acceptable calibration in the overall population and in numerous subgroups. When patients were grouped into categories of predicted risk, the absolute difference between the observed and expected event rates was less than 1.5% for each endpoint. The final model intercept and coefficients are provided. CONCLUSIONS New STS risk models have been developed for CABG mortality and eight other endpoints. Detailed descriptions of model development and testing are provided, together with the final algorithm. Overall model performance is excellent.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons 2008 cardiac surgery risk models: part 2--isolated valve surgery.

BACKGROUND Adjustment for case-mix is essential when using observational data to compare surgical techniques or providers. That is most often accomplished through the use of risk models that account for preoperative patient factors that may impact outcomes. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) uses such risk models to create risk-adjusted performance reports for participants in the STS National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (NCD). Although risk models were initially developed for coronary artery bypass surgery, similar models have now been developed for use with heart valve surgery, particularly as the proportion of such procedures has increased. The last published STS model for isolated valve surgery was based on data from 1994 to 1997 and did not include patients undergoing mitral valve repair. STS has developed new valve surgery models using contemporary data that include both valve repair as well as replacement. Expanding upon existing valve models, the new STS models include several nonfatal complications in addition to mortality. METHODS Using STS data from 2002 to 2006, isolated valve surgery risk models were developed for operative mortality, permanent stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation (> 24 hours), deep sternal wound infection, reoperation for any reason, a major morbidity or mortality composite endpoint, prolonged postoperative length of stay, and short postoperative length of stay. The study population consisted of adult patients who underwent one of three types of valve surgery: isolated aortic valve replacement (n = 67,292), isolated mitral valve replacement (n = 21,229), or isolated mitral valve repair (n = 21,238). The population was divided into a 60% development sample and a 40% validation sample. After an initial empirical investigation, the three surgery groups were combined into a single logistic regression model with numerous interactions to allow the covariate effects to differ across these groups. Variables were selected based on a combination of automated stepwise selection and expert panel review. RESULTS Unadjusted operative mortality (in-hospital regardless of timing, and 30-day regardless of venue) for all isolated valve procedures was 3.4%, and unadjusted in-hospital morbidity rates ranged from 0.3% for deep sternal wound infection to 11.8% for prolonged ventilation. The number of predictors in each model ranged from 10 covariates in the sternal infection model to 24 covariates in the composite mortality plus morbidity model. Discrimination as measured by the c-index ranged from 0.639 for reoperation to 0.799 for mortality. When patients in the validation sample were grouped into 10 categories based on deciles of predicted risk, the average absolute difference between observed versus predicted events within these groups ranged from 0.06% for deep sternal wound infection to 1.06% for prolonged postoperative stay. CONCLUSIONS The new STS risk models for valve surgery include mitral valve repair as well as multiple endpoints other than mortality. Model coefficients are provided and an online risk calculator is publicly available from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons website.

2011 ACCF/AHA Guideline for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery A Report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines

L. David Hillis, MD, FACC, Chair†; Peter K. Smith, MD, FACC, Vice Chair*†; Jeffrey L. Anderson, MD, FACC, FAHA*‡; John A. Bittl, MD, FACC§; Charles R. Bridges, MD, SCD, FACC, FAHA*†; John G. Byrne, MD, FACC†; Joaquin E. Cigarroa, MD, FACC†; Verdi J. DiSesa, MD, FACC†; Loren F. Hiratzka, MD, FACC, FAHA†; Adolph M. Hutter, Jr, MD, MACC, FAHA†; Michael E. Jessen, MD, FACC*†; Ellen C. Keeley, MD, MS†; Stephen J. Lahey, MD†; Richard A. Lange, MD, FACC, FAHA†§; Martin J. London, MD ; Michael J. Mack, MD, FACC*¶; Manesh R. Patel, MD, FACC†; John D. Puskas, MD, FACC*†; Joseph F. Sabik, MD, FACC*#; Ola Selnes, PhD†; David M. Shahian, MD, FACC, FAHA**; Jeffrey C. Trost, MD, FACC*†; Michael D. Winniford, MD, FACC†

2011 ACCF/AHA Guideline for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Alice K. Jacobs, MD, FACC, FAHA, Chair Jeffrey L. Anderson, MD, FACC, FAHA, Chair-Elect Nancy Albert, PhD, CCNS, CCRN, FAHA Mark A. Creager, MD, FACC, FAHA Steven M. Ettinger, MD, FACC Robert A. Guyton, MD, FACC Jonathan L. Halperin, MD, FACC, FAHA Judith S. Hochman, MD, FACC, FAHA

Comparative Effectiveness of Revascularization Strategies

BACKGROUND Questions persist concerning the comparative effectiveness of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG). The American College of Cardiology Foundation (ACCF) and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) collaborated to compare the rates of long-term survival after PCI and CABG. METHODS We linked the ACCF National Cardiovascular Data Registry and the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database to claims data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for the years 2004 through 2008. Outcomes were compared with the use of propensity scores and inverse-probability-weighting adjustment to reduce treatment-selection bias. RESULTS Among patients 65 years of age or older who had two-vessel or three-vessel coronary artery disease without acute myocardial infarction, 86,244 underwent CABG and 103,549 underwent PCI. The median follow-up period was 2.67 years. At 1 year, there was no significant difference in adjusted mortality between the groups (6.24% in the CABG group as compared with 6.55% in the PCI group; risk ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90 to 1.00). At 4 years, there was lower mortality with CABG than with PCI (16.4% vs. 20.8%; risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.82). Similar results were noted in multiple subgroups and with the use of several different analytic methods. Residual confounding was assessed by means of a sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS In this observational study, we found that, among older patients with multivessel coronary disease that did not require emergency treatment, there was a long-term survival advantage among patients who underwent CABG as compared with patients who underwent PCI. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Outcomes Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement in the United States

IMPORTANCE Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis and inoperable status (in 2011) and high-risk but operable status (starting in 2012). A national registry (the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology Transcatheter Valve Therapy [STS/ACC TVT] Registry) was initiated to meet a condition for Medicare coverage and also facilitates outcome assessment and comparison with other trials and international registries. OBJECTIVE To report the initial US commercial experience with TAVR. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We obtained results from all eligible US TAVR cases (n=7710) from 224 participating registry hospitals following the Edwards Sapien XT device commercialization (November 2011-May 2013). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary outcomes included all-cause in-hospital mortality and stroke following TAVR. Secondary analyses included procedural complications and outcomes by clinical indication and access site. Device implantation success was defined as successful vascular access, deployment of a single device in the proper anatomic position, appropriate valve function without either moderate or severe AR, and successful retrieval of the delivery system. Thirty-day outcomes are presented for a representative 3133 cases (40.6%) at 114 centers with at least 80% complete follow-up reporting. RESULTS The 7710 patients who underwent TAVR included 1559 (20%) cases that were inoperable and 6151 (80%) cases that were high-risk but operable. The median age was 84 years (interquartile range [IQR], 78-88 years); 3783 patients (49%) were women and the median STS predicted risk of mortality was 7% (IQR, 5%-11%). At baseline, 2176 patients (75%) were either not at all satisfied (1297 patients [45%]) or mostly dissatisfied (879 patients [30%]) with their symptom status; 2198 (72%) had a 5-m walk time longer than 6 seconds (slow gait speed). The most common vascular access approach was transfemoral (4972 patients [64%]), followed by transapical (2197 patients [29%]) and other alternative approaches (536 patients [7%]); successful device implantation occurred in 7069 patients (92%; 95% CI, 91%-92%). The observed incidence of in-hospital mortality was 5.5% (95% CI, 5.0%-6.1%). Other major complications included stroke (2.0%; 95% CI, 1.7%-2.4%), dialysis-dependent renal failure (1.9%; 95% CI, 1.6%-2.2%), and major vascular injury (6.4%; 95% CI, 5.8%-6.9%). Median hospital stay was 6 days (IQR, 4-10 days), with 4613 (63%) discharged home. Among patients with available follow-up at 30 days (n=3133), the incidence of mortality was 7.6% (95% CI, 6.7%-8.6%) (noncardiovascular cause, 52%); a stroke had occurred in 2.8% (95% CI, 2.3%-3.5%), new dialysis in 2.5% (95% CI, 2.0%-3.1%), and reintervention in 0.5% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.8%). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients undergoing TAVR at US centers in the STS/ACC TVT Registry, device implantation success was achieved in 92% of cases, the overall in-hospital mortality rate was 5.5%, and the stroke rate was 2.0%. Although these postmarket US approval findings are comparable with prior published trial data and international experience, long-term follow-up is essential to assess continued efficacy and safety. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01737528.

Guidelines for Reporting Mortality and Morbidity After Cardiac Valve Interventions

uidelines for Reporting Mortality and Morbidity fter Cardiac Valve Interventions ary W. Akins, MD, D. Craig Miller, MD, Marko I. Turina, MD, icholas T. Kouchoukos, MD, Eugene H. Blackstone, MD, ary L. Grunkemeier, PhD, Johanna J. M. Takkenberg, MD, PhD, irone E. David, MD, Eric G. Butchart, MD, David H. Adams, MD, avid M. Shahian, MD, Siegfried Hagl, MD, John E. Mayer, MD, and ruce W. Lytle, MD The American Association for Thoracic Surgery, Beverly, Massachusetts; The Society of Thoracic Surgeons, Chicago, Illinois; and The European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Windsor, Berks, United Kingdom

Blueprint for a New American College of Surgeons: National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

i A t c w m c “ m p m he need for hospitals and surgeons to systematically track he quality of surgical care they provide has never been tronger. Effective measurement is, of course, essential for argeting and evaluating the effects of local quality imrovement activities. They also face new external pressures. he American Board of Surgery has implemented new tandards for Maintenance of Certification (MOC) that equire surgeons to monitor their own performance. Reglators, including the Joint Commission, are demanding vidence that hospitals are assessing key indicators of surical safety and monitoring surgeon-specific performance s part of the credentialing process. Payers in both public nd private sectors are rapidly implementing centers of xcellence and pay-for-performance programs, holding ospitals and surgeons accountable to a growing number of rocessand outcomes-oriented quality indicators. The American College of Surgeons-National Surgical uality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP), the most idely recognized quality measurement system for noncardiac urgery in the United States, aims to meet these needs. Orignally developed within the Department of Veterans Affairs ealth system, NSQIP was launched in the private sector in 999 in a pilot study involving a small number of academic enters. In 2004, the program partnered with the American ollege of Surgeons, aiming to disseminate ACS-NSQIP naionwide. At this writing, more than 200 hospitals are submiting data to the program, with many more in the process of nrollment. Although general and vascular surgery remain the

Clinical Outcomes at 1 Year Following Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

IMPORTANCE Introducing new medical devices into routine practice raises concerns because patients and outcomes may differ from those in randomized trials. OBJECTIVE To update the previous report of 30-day outcomes and present 1-year outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeons/American College of Cardiology (STS/ACC) Transcatheter Valve Therapies Registry were linked with patient-specific Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) administrative claims data. At 299 US hospitals, 12 182 patients linked with CMS data underwent TAVR procedures performed from November 2011 through June 30, 2013, and the end of the follow-up period was June 30, 2014. EXPOSURE Transcatheter aortic valve replacement. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES One-year outcomes including mortality, stroke, and rehospitalization were evaluated using multivariate modeling. RESULTS The median age of patients was 84 years and 52% were women, with a median STS Predicted Risk of Operative Mortality (STS PROM) score of 7.1%. Following the TAVR procedure, 59.8% were discharged to home and the 30-day mortality was 7.0% (95% CI, 6.5%-7.4%) (n = 847 deaths). In the first year after TAVR, patients were alive and out of the hospital for a median of 353 days (interquartile range, 312-359 days); 24.4% (n = 2074) of survivors were rehospitalized once and 12.5% (n = 1525) were rehospitalized twice. By 1 year, the overall mortality rate was 23.7% (95% CI, 22.8%-24.5%) (n = 2450 deaths), the stroke rate was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.7%-4.5%) (n = 455 stroke events), and the rate of the composite outcome of mortality and stroke was 26.0% (25.1%-26.8%) (n = 2719 events). Characteristics significantly associated with 1-year mortality included advanced age (hazard ratio [HR] for ≥95 vs <75 years, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.09]; HR for 85-94 years vs <75 years, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.18-1.55]; and HR for 75-84 years vs <75 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.08-1.41]), male sex (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12-1.31), end-stage renal disease (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.41-1.95), severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.25-1.55), nontransfemoral access (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48), STS PROM score greater than 15% vs less than 8% (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.60-2.06), and preoperative atrial fibrillation/flutter (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.27-1.48). Compared with men, women had a higher risk of stroke (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.15-1.71). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients undergoing TAVR in US clinical practice, at 1-year follow-up, overall mortality was 23.7%, the stroke rate was 4.1%, and the rate of the composite outcome of death and stroke was 26.0%. These findings should be helpful in discussions with patients undergoing TAVR.

Addition of Frailty and Disability to Cardiac Surgery Risk Scores Identifies Elderly Patients at High Risk of Mortality or Major Morbidity

Background— Cardiac surgery risk scores perform poorly in elderly patients, in part because they do not take into account frailty and disability which are critical determinants of health status with advanced age. There is an unmet need to combine established cardiac surgery risk scores with measures of frailty and disability to provide a more complete model for risk prediction in elderly patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Methods and Results— This was a prospective, multicenter cohort study of elderly patients (≥70 years) undergoing coronary artery bypass and/or valve surgery in the United States and Canada. Four different frailty scales, 3 disability scales, and 5 cardiac surgery risk scores were measured in all patients. The primary outcome was the STS composite end point of in-hospital postoperative mortality or major morbidity. A total of 152 patients were enrolled, with a mean age of 75.9±4.4 years and 34% women. Depending on the scale used, 20–46% of patients were found to be frail, and 5–76% were found to have at least 1 disability. The most predictive scale in each domain was: 5-meter gait speed ≥6 seconds as a measure of frailty (odds ratio [OR], 2.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17–5.90), ≥3 impairments in the Nagi scale as a measure of disability (OR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.35–6.56) and either the Parsonnet score (OR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.04–1.13) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality or Major Morbidity (STS-PROMM) (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01–1.09) as a cardiac surgery risk score. Compared with the Parsonnet score or STS-PROMM alone, (area under the curve, 0.68–0.72), addition of frailty and disability provided incremental value and improved model discrimination (area under the curve, 0.73–0.76). Conclusions— Clinicians should use an integrative approach combining frailty, disability, and risk scores to better characterize elderly patients referred for cardiac surgery and identify those that are at increased risk.