David M. Straus

Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

Abstract Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP) is an informally coordinated multi-institution research project to investigate the predictability of seasonal mean atmospheric circulation and rainfall. The basic idea is to test the feasibility of extending the technology of routine numerical weather prediction beyond the inherent limit of deterministic predictability of weather to produce numerical climate predictions using state-of-the-art global atmospheric models. Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) either forced by predicted sea surface temperature (SST) or as part of a coupled forecast system have shown in the past that certain regions of the extratropics, in particular, the Pacific-North America (PNA) region during Northern Hemisphere winter, can be predicted with significant skill especially during years of large tropical SST anomalies. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty about how much the details of various AGCMs impact conclusions about extratropical seasonal prediction an...

Does ENSO Force the PNA

Abstract The primary effect of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is to force distinct midlatitude patterns, and not only to modify the probability of the internal variability patterns [such as the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern of Wallace and Gutzler]. Both the spatial structure and probability distribution of the external ENSO pattern are distinct from the PNA pattern. Ensemble general circulation model (GCM) integrations for 30 winters have been analyzed in the Pacific–North America region. These winters span the recent period of 1981/82 through 1998/99, plus 12 earlier winters; the entire dataset includes six El Nino (warm) and seven La Nina (cold) events. The ensemble size is nine simulations. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is carried out for all GCMs and observed seasonal means, for the GCM ensemble means, and for the GCM deviations about the ensemble means. EOF-1 of the GCM 200-hPa height (Z) ensemble mean agrees well with EOF-1 of all GC...

Form-Drag Instability, Multiple Equilibria and Propagating Planetary Waves in Baroclinic, Orographically Forced, Planetary Wave Systems

Abstract A two-layer baroclinic model is used to study the planetary-scale motions of a thermally driven atmosphere in the presence of topography, and in doing so to extend previous results obtained with a barotropic model. Highly truncated spectral equations are used to obtain multiple wavelike stationary equilibrium states, to examine the instabilities that produce them, and to study the instabilities that feed on them and give rise to traveling planetary waves. Although the equilibria cannot exist without orography, their energy comes from the potential energy of the mean flow, not from kinetic energy transfer via the mountain torque. Low-index (blocking) equilibria as well as high-index equilibria require a large thermal driving and are associated with both orographic and baroclinic instability of the Hadley circulation. The blocking state is stable to the gravest y mode but unstable to the next highest y mode: the high-index states are unstable to both modes. The instabilities of the equilibria lead ...

The Simulated Indian Monsoon: A GCM Sensitivity Study

Abstract A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted in an attempt to understand and correct deficiencies in the simulation of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon with a global atmospheric general circulation model. The seasonal mean precipitation is less than half that observed. This poor simulation in seasonal integrations is independent of the choice of initial conditions and global sea surface temperature data used. Experiments are performed to test the sensitivity of the Indian monsoon simulation to changes in orography, vegetation, soil wetness, and cloudiness. The authors find that the deficiency of the model precipitation simulation may be attributed to the use of an enhanced orography in the integrations. Replacement of this orography with a mean orography results in a much more realistic simulation of Indian monsoon circulation and rainfall. Experiments with a linear primitive equation model on the sphere suggest that this striking improvement is due to modulations of the orographically force...

Variations of Midlatitude Transient Dynamics Associated with ENSO

Abstract The winter response of the atmosphere to El Nino events in the Pacific is studied both from a 14-year integration of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere GCM using observed SSTs from January 1979 to February 1993 and from the corresponding analyses of ECMWF. Emphasis is put on the shift in the high-frequency transients that define the Pacific storm track during warm events. Warm and normal ensembles are defined on the basis of the GCM’s diabatic heating field in the tropical Pacific, which falls in one of two states. During the winters of 1982/83, 1986/87, and 1991/92, the heating averaged between 6°S and 6°N lies in the range of 100–200 W m−2 all the way across the basin. The remaining 10 “normal” years all show no large tropical diabatic heating anomalies in the mid or eastern Pacific. The difference between warm and normal ensembles for the mean fields of zonal wind u and height z indicates an eastward and equatorward extension of the midlatitude Pacific jet, associated with a similar extensio...

Circulation Regimes: Chaotic Variability versus SST-Forced Predictability

Abstract The circulation regimes in the Pacific–North American region are studied using the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses for the 18-winter period (1981/82–1998/99; NCEP18) and for the 54-winter period (1948/49–2001/02; NCEP54). The sampling properties of the regimes are estimated using very large ensembles (of size 55) of winter simulations made for the NCEP18 period with the atmospheric general circulation model of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies, forced by observed SST and sea ice. The regimes are identified using a modified version of the k-means method. From the NCEP54 dataset a set of four clusters was found [i.e., the Alaskan ridge (AR), Arctic low (AL), Pacific trough (PT), and the Arctic high (AH)], which are significant (vis-a-vis a multinormal background), and more reproducible (within randomly chosen half-length samples) than would be expected from a multinormal process. The frequency of occurrence of the PT (AH) has increased (decreased) significantly during the past two decades. The PT c...

AO, COWL, and Observed Climate Trends

Abstract The linear trends for a number of fields obtained from the reanalyses of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) are calculated for the Northern Hemisphere winter months (January–March) from the 55-yr period of 1948–2002. The fields include sea level pressure (SLP); geopotential height at 500 and 50 hPa; temperature at 500 and 50 hPa; zonally averaged height; temperature; zonal, meridional, and vertical velocities from 1000 to 50 hPa; and surface air temperature (SAT). The trend fields are expressed in terms of two alternate expansions: (i) contributions from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold ocean–warm land (COWL) patterns, as defined from the leading modes of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea level pressure; or (ii) contributions from the modified AO (AO*) and modified COWL (COWL*) patterns, defined from the leading EOFs of 500-hPa height. The residuals in each expansion are considered, and the completeness p...

Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Analysis of NCEP-NCAR I reanalysis data of 1948–2009 and ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data of 1958–2001 reveals several significant interdecadal changes in the storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction in the extratropics of Northern Hemisphere. First, the most remarkable transition in the North Pacific storm track (PST) and the North Atlantic storm track (AST) activities during the boreal cold season (from November to March) occurred around early-to-mid 1970s with the characteristics of global intensification that has been noticed in previous studies. Second, the PST activity in midwinter underwent decadal change from a weak regime in the early 1980s to a strong regime in the late 1980s. Third, during recent decade, the PST intensity has been enhanced in early spring whereas the AST intensity has been weakened in midwinter. Finally, interdecadal change has been also noted in the relationship between the PST and AST activities and between the storm track activity and climate indices. The variability of storm track activity is well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation prior to the early 1980s, but this relationship has disappeared afterward and a significant linkage between the PST and AST activity has also been decoupled. For a better understanding of the mid-1970s’ shift in storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction, further investigation is made by analyzing local barotropic and baroclinic energetics. The intensification of global storm track activity after the mid-1970s is mainly associated with the enhancement of mean meridional temperature gradient resulting in favorable condition for baroclinic eddy growth. Consistent with the change in storm track activity, the baroclinic energy conversion is significantly increased in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The intensification of the PST and AST activity, in turn, helps to reinforce the changes in the middle-to-upper tropospheric circulation but acts to interfere with the changes in the low-tropospheric temperature field.

Circulation Regimes and SST Forcing: Results from Large GCM Ensembles

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) on the midlatitude circulation regime behavior in the Pacific–North American region. Toward this end, a cluster analysis has been applied to 55-member ensembles of winter seasonal simulations of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies general circulation model for 18 winters. The ensemble members for each winter utilize the same prescribed, observed weekly varying SST for that winter. The cluster analysis includes all fluctuations with time scales longer than 10 days except for the ensemble mean seasonal cycle. Using a partitioning algorithm separately applied to each winters ensemble, clusters are found in the 200-hPa height field that are signicant (vis-a-vis a suitable Gaussian background), reproducible (in half-length datasets), and consistent (with clusters obtained from the 200-hPa u wind) for all winters except the strong El Nino events of 1982/83, 1986/87, and 1997/98. One cluster found con...

An Observational Study of Large-Scale Atmospheric Rossby Waves during FGGE

Abstract Analyzed global data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts for the FGGE year are projected onto Hough functions at each synoptic time and the time series filtered to retain all westward propagating components on time scales less than seasonal. The evolution of Hough mode phase agrees closely with Rossby wave theory whenever the amplitudes are not small. The evolution of the wave amplitude is described as irregular vacillation. The first three zonal and meridional wavenumbers are studied. The total Rossby wave field can be as large as 130 m and can potentially explain a significant part of observed, persistent anomalies.