David Marques-Ibanez

Large Debt Financing: Syndicated Loans versus Corporate Bonds

Following the introduction of the euro, the markets for large debt financing experienced a historical expansion. We investigate the financial factors behind the issuance of syndicated loans for an extensive sample of euro area non-financial corporations. For the first time, we compare these factors to those of its major competitor: the corporate bond market. We find that large firms, with greater financial leverage, more (verifiable) profits and higher liquidation values tend to choose syndicated loans. In contrast, firms with more short-term debt and those perceived by markets as having more growth opportunities favour financing through corporate bonds. Syndicated loans are the preferred instrument at the extreme where firms are very large, profitable but have less growth opportunities.

Bank Ratings: What Determines Their Quality?

This paper examines the quality of credit ratings assigned to banks in Europe and the United States by the three largest rating agencies over the past two decades. We interpret credit ratings as relative assessments of creditworthiness, and define a new ordinal metric of rating error based on banks’ expected default frequencies. Our results suggest that rating agencies assign more positive ratings to large banks and to those institutions more likely to provide the rating agency with additional securities rating business (as indicated by private structured credit origination activity). These competitive distortions are economically significant and help perpetuate the existence of ‘too-big-to-fail’ banks. We also show that, overall, differential risk weights recommended by the Basel accords for investment grade banks bear no significant relationship to empirical default probabilities.

Modelling Loans to Non-Financial Corporations in the Euro Area

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics of loan demand for the euro area are subsequently modelled using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We perform a number of specification tests, which suggest that developments in loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area can be reasonably explained by the model. We then use the estimated model to analyse the impact of permanent and temporary shocks to the policy rate on bank lending to non-financial corporations.

Efficiency and Risk Taking in European Banking

The recent period of crisis in credit markets has highlighted the crucial role of bank risk taking. Our paper assesses the inter-temporal relationships among bank efficiency, capital and bank risk-taking in the EU-26 commercial banking industry between 1995 and 2007. Our results support the bad management-, luck-, cost and revenue skimping hypotheses. Overall, our paper provides evidence that higher performance (enhanced efficiency) has been not related to higher managerial skills, rather to cost and revenue skimping and bad management.

Financial Restructuring in European Banking & Foreign Expansion

ABSTRACT This paper examines the main structural and performance features of European banking. It demonstrates that while banking markets have become increasingly concentrated and bank numbers have fallen, competition appears to have intensified. Given the large number of banks and branches in many countries, there still remain indicators of possible excess capacity in the system and that the consolidation trend, especially with the advent of the EMU, will continue. The paper considers ways in which banks have diversified to add to their revenues, and also discusses market power and competition issues relating to increased market concentration. Finally, we briefly discuss the foreign expansion strategies of European banks, particularly the Spanish banks in South America. The strategic emphasis of the top Spanish banks has primarily been based on building market power and a name presence in a region that has massive market potential. RESUMEN. Este documento examina las principales características estructurales y de desempeño de la banca europea. Demuestra que, mientras que los mercados bancarios se han ido concentrando cada vez más determinando la disminución del número de bancos existentes, la competencia parece haberse intensificado. De acuerdo al gran número de bancos y sucursales que existen en muchos países, esto parece mostrar que todavía existen indicadores de posible exceso de capacidad en el sistema, y que la tendencia hacia la consolidación, especialmente con la llegada del EMU, continuará. El documento considera las formas en que los bancos se han diversificado para aumentar sus ingresos, así como el poder del mercado y temas relacionados a la competencia para aumentar su concentración. Por último, traza rápidamente las estrategias de expansión extranjera de los bancos europeos, especialmente los bancos españoles en Sudamérica. El hincapié estratégico de los principales bancos españoles se basó, primordialmente, en aumentar su poder de mercado y la presencia de la marca en la región que tiene un potencial de mercado masivo. RESUMO. Este estudo analisa as características estruturais e o desempenho do sistema bancário europeu. Ele demonstra que, enquanto o mercado bancário tornou-se cada vez mais concentrado e o número de bancos diminuiu, a competição parece ter se intensificado. Apesar do grande número de bancos e de filiais em muitos países, ainda permanecem indicadores de excesso de capacidade do sistema, e que a tendência de consolidação continuará, especialmente com o advento da Unidade Monetária Européia. Este trabalho considera as diversas estratégias utilizadas pelos bancos para aumentar a sua receita e, também, discute o poder de mercado e os aspectos competitivos relacionados à maior concentração do mercado. Finalmente, discutem-se, sucintamente, as estratégias de expansão estrangeira dos bancos europeus, particularmente dos bancos espanhóis, na América do Sul. A ênfase estratégica dos maiores bancos espanhóis baseia-se, principalmente, na construção do poder de mercado e da presença da sua marca em uma região com grande potencial de mercado.

Competition and Bank Risk The Effect of Securitization and Bank Capital

We find that the increased use of securitization activity in the banking sector augmented the effect of competition on realized bank risk during the 2007-2009 crisis. Our results suggest that securitization by itself does not lead to augmented risk while higher levels of capital do not buffer the impact of competition on realized risk. It follows that cooperation between supervisory and competition authorities would be beneficial when acting on the financial stability implications of financial innovation and the effects of bank capital regulation.

Securitization and Credit Quality

Banks are usually better informed on the loans they originate than other financial intermediaries. As a result, securitized loans might be of lower credit quality than otherwise similar non- securitized loans. We assess the effect of securitization activity on credit quality employing a uniquely detailed dataset from the euro-denominated syndicated loan market. We find that, at issuance, banks do not select and securitize loans of lower credit quality. Following securitization, however, the credit quality of borrowers whose loans are securitized deteriorates by more than those in the control group. We find tentative evidence suggesting that poorer performance by securitized loans might be linked to banks reduced monitoring incentives.

Securitization and Credit Quality in the European Market

We assess the effect of securitization activity on relative credit quality employing a uniquely detailed dataset from the euro-denominated syndicated loan market. We find that at issuance, based on observable characteristics, banks do not seem to select and securitize loans of lower credit quality. Following securitization, the credit quality of borrowers whose loans are securitized deteriorates more than those in the control group. We find that poorer performance by borrowers of securitized loans seems to be connected to banks’ reduced monitoring incentives. Our results are supported by two additional methodologies and robust to controlling for predetermined borrower-lender matching.

Bank Risk and Business Models During the Great Recession

We analyze the determinants of bank risk during the recent financial crisis for a large international panel of listed institutions. With a comprehensive dataset manually assembled from a variety of sources, we relate several measures of ex-post banks’ distress – including the likelihood of a bank rescue, systematic risk and the intensity of recourse to central bank liquidity – to different business models. We find that distress was mainly driven by the funding structure, size and excessive credit expansion in the years preceding the crisis. Using regression quantile techniques, we show that the impact of business models characteristics on risk is non-linear. The level of distress of the riskier banks is relatively more sensitive to market funding and customer deposits. Our results therefore suggest that the more effective measures to contain the distress of the riskiest banks during crises are those aimed at regulating their funding structure, supporting some of the recommendations of Basel III.