David Mazursky

The Idea Itself and the Circumstances of Its Emergence as Predictors of New Product Success

In view of the distressingly low rate of success in new product introduction, it is important to identify predictive guidelines early in the new product development process so that better choices can be made and unnecessary costs avoided. In this paper, we propose a framework for early analysis based on the success potential embodied in the product-idea itself and the circumstances of its emergence. Based on two studies reporting actual introductions, we identified several determinants such as how the ideas originated, their specific configurations, and the level of technology required for their implementation that significantly distinguish successful from unsuccessful new products in the marketplace. We suggest that these factors, together with already known factors of success/failure, may aid in the estimation of the potential of a concept early in its development.

When Feedback is Ignored: Disutility of Outcome Feedback

Institute for Marketing and Consumer Research,The Free University, West Berlin, West GermanyFollowing Hammond, McClelland, and Mumpower (1980), two types of feedbackare conceptualized—outcome feedback and cognitive feedback The latter is herehypothesized as having either predictive or explanatory value Using security analystsparticipating in a security analysis decision simulation, the hypothesis that, incontrast to poorer performing decision makers, better performing decision makersare more likely to ignore outcome-only feedback was confirmed (r = —.48, p =02). Implications for theory revision and future research are discussed

New directions in behavioral process research: Implications for social psychology

Abstract Current theories of social judgment and social decision making emphasize dynamic process perspectives, but the methods used to investigate these processes have been relatively static and limited in scope. This paper describes a set of evolving procedures designed to capture process data and discusses how this approach may be used to study various psychological phenomena, including control schemata, attribution theory, attitude formation, impression formation, implicit personality theory, verbal report accuracy, postdecision dissonance reduction, attraction, choice behavior, time constraints, gender stereotypes, agenda effects, and task feedback effects.

I could never have expected it to happen: The reversal of the hindsight bias

Abstract It has been hypothesized and demonstrated in previous research that individuals′ recall of predictive judgments is typically distorted by knowledge of the outcomes of the events predicted. This is attributed to the tendency to downgrade the surprise element associated with the outcomes and the adoption of an “I knew it all along” attitude. The present study identifies the limits of this hypothesis by showing that following the exposure to unexpected events, individuals may react by expressing an “I did not expect this to happen” response and recall predictions opposite to their judgment of the event after its occurrence. In other words, the recall of past judgments may be biased in a direction contrary to rather than consistent with subsequent judgments. Three experiments were conducted in different contexts to test the boundary conditions of the “I knew it all along” hypothesis. The findings in all three experiments suggest that following unexpected and surprising events, recall judgments are biased in a direction opposite to that predicted by the hindsight bias.

Templates of Original Innovation: Projecting Original Incremental Innovations from Intrinsic Information

A systematic framework for the enhancement of inventiveness is introduced. According to the proposed approach, the starting point is an existing system rather than external pressures. By a sequence of formal operations (defined as templates) on the initial structure of a system, an innovative structure involving a new system is obtained. The sequence of operations is prescribed by well-defined procedures. The replacement template is illustrated in this work by two field cases and its potential value is tested empirically. Given the abundance of innovations in which the templates are manifested, the replacement template can be considered an exemplar for utilizing intrinsic information about a system in the development of innovations.

World-size global markets lead to economic instability

Economic and cultural globalization is one of the most important processes humankind has been undergoing lately. This process is assumed to be leading the world into a wealthy society with a better life. However, the current trend of globalization is not unprecedented in human history, and has had some severe consequences in the past. By applying a quantitative analysis through a microscopic representation we show that globalization, besides being unfair (with respect to wealth distribution), is also unstable and potentially dangerous as one event may lead to a collapse of the system. It is proposed that the optimal solution in controlling the unwanted aspects and enhancing the advantageous ones lies in limiting competition to large subregions, rather than making it worldwide.

Training Novice Investors to Become More Expert: The Role of Information Accessing Strategy

Considerable research has examined how securities information, once accessed, is cognitively processed to arrive at buy, sell or hold decisions. In contrast, this paper examines whether training novice investors to simply apply the information accessing strategies used by better-performing security analysts, prior to actual cognitive processing of the information, would improve their performance. We obtain performance differences by comparing trained subjects who used the recommended strategies with untrained subjects. Notably, these differences emerged even during a significant market downturn during the simulation. Implications of the findings and directions for future research are discussed.

Learning from the ad or relying on related attitudes: The moderating role of involvement

The study examines how 1) the level of mvolvement and 2) the strength of productrelated attitudes consumers hold determine lomtly the effectiveness of message claims and source credlblhty It 1s shown that these factors interact m determining the effectiveness of message quality When mdlvlduals hold weak related attitudes high mvolvement enhances message effectiveness However, when they hold strong related attitudes high mvolvement detracts from message effectiveness Involvement also moderates the Joint effectiveness of source credlblhty and message quality Under low mvolvement consumers use the source as a simple acceptance or reJection rule and it 1s considered independently of the message When mvolvement 1s high, the source provides the context for the Interpretation of the message and thus an interactive effect was expected

The Effects of Advertisement Encoding on the Failure to Discount Information: Implications for the Sleeper Effect

The study examines the impact of encoding of product information on temporal changes in product attitudes following exposure to discounting appeals. The sleeper effect, which is manifested by increased message effectiveness over time, was observed in two replications when participants were induced to encode the message elaboratively. Under this condition, consumers were guided to imagine themselves consuming the advertised products while viewing the ads. The sleeper effect was not observed, however, when consumers were not induced to elaborate on and integrate message information (Experiment 1 ) or when the request to imagine themselves using the products was delivered after the discounting cue was conveyed (Experiment 2). These findings support a model that postulates that the magnitude of the sleeper effect is influenced by the relative availability of the product information and the discounting cue appeal. Additional mediating mechanisms are explored and discussed.

Effectiveness of security analyst information accessing strategies: A computer interactive assessment

Abstract The present study illustrates how computers can substantially extend the range and ease of application of the behavioral process information monitoring procedures that are increasingly being used to capture and preserve traces of pre-decision information accessing behavior. Employing such an extension, the study examined whether better and poorer decision marker performance was related to differences in the extent and content of information accessing behavior. The results of a computer simulation involving practicing financial security analysts engaged in a securities analysis task revealed that the better performing analysts generally considered slightly greater amounts of information and different types of information than did the poorer performing analysts. These findings are interpreted in terms of the concept of “control schemas” postulated by Kozminsky, Kintsch, and Bourne (1981). A concluding section describes numerous ways in which computers improve upon both the flexibility and validity of traditional research paradigms.