David Merriman

Public capital and regional output: Another look at some Japanese and American data

Abstract Japanese and American data are used to recover estimates of regional production functions that include government capital as an input. Estimated parameters are used to simulate allocations of government capital which would have resulted in equal per employee outputs across states and regions. Base case estimates indicate that complete equalization would have increased aggregate output by about 8 percent in 1954 but reduced it by 14 percent in 1963, in Japan, and reduced aggregate output by about 25 percent in the U.S. in 1972. Sensitivity analyses show that these results are not affected much by small changes in the parameters.

The impact of eliminating the global illicit cigarette trade on health and revenue.

AIMS The purpose of this study was to update global estimates of the illicit cigarette trade, based on recent data, and estimate how many lives could be saved by eliminating it and how much revenue governments would gain. DATA SOURCES AND METHODS Our estimates of illicit market share are based on formal and informal sources. Our method for estimating the effect of eliminating the illicit trade on tobacco related deaths is based on West et al. with some minor modifications, and involves calculating the size of the illicit cigarette trade; the effect of eliminating it on the price of cigarettes and thus on consumption; the revenue governments are losing because of it; and the number of tobacco-related premature deaths that would be avoided if this illicit trade were eliminated. RESULTS According to available estimates, the size of the illicit trade varies between countries from 1% to about 40-50% of the market, 11.6% globally, 16.8% in low-income and 9.8% in high-income countries. The total lost revenue is about

How many parking spaces does it take to create one additional transit passenger

40.5 billion a year. If this illicit trade were eliminated governments would gain at least

Using Littered Pack Data to Estimate Cigarette Tax Avoidance in NYC

31.3 billion a year, and from 2030 onwards more than 164,000 premature deaths a year would be avoided, the vast majority in middle- and low-income countries. CONCLUSIONS The burden of deaths and lost revenue caused by the illicit cigarette trade falls disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries. Eliminating this trade would avoid millions of premature deaths, and recover billions of dollars for governments.

Cigarette trafficking in five northeastern US cities

Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence that increases in parking capacity at parking-constrained commuter rail stations in the Chicago area increases boarding. Depending upon the time period, definition of constraint and other independent variables used, between six-tenths and 2.2 additional boarders are associated with each additional parking space. Although there is some empirical evidence that increases in parking capacity slightly reduce boardings at adjacent stations, the net impact of additional parking on system-wide boarding is positive. A rudimentary benefit-cost analysis using very conservative estimates of benefits indicates that expansions of parking capacity at constrained stations have positive net social benefits.

Do Tax Increment Finance Districts Stimulate Growth in Real Estate Values

Using data on tax stamps obtained from random samples of littered packs of cigarettes, collected once before and three times after a June 2008 New York State tax increase, we find that baseline New York City tax avoidance is high relative to national estimates, and that rates of avoidance are particularly high in neighborhoods with high levels of poverty and in relatively close proximity to a Native American reservation. The share of littered packs with no tax stamp increased from 15 to 24 percent after the tax increase. We find that in addition to the large increase in avoidance, cigarette consumption declined.

An Economic Analysis of the Post World War II Decline in the Japanese Crime Rate

Background Cigarette taxation is effective in reducing tobacco use in the USA. However, these benefits are reduced when taxes are unpaid. Cigarette trafficking (ie, the illegal importation of cigarettes into a high-tax jurisdiction from a lower-tax jurisdiction) is well documented in high-tax places like New York City (NYC), but the extent of trafficking in other northeastern cities is relatively unknown. Objective To estimate the extent of cigarette trafficking in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, Providence and Washington, DC, and project the benefits of reducing cigarette trafficking for recouping lost taxes and reducing smoking in these cities. Methods Littered cigarette packs were collected from a random sample of Census tracts in five US cities. Data collection yielded 1439 total littered packs. The share of cigarette packs bearing proper local, known non-local, foreign or unknown, or no tax stamp was calculated for each city. These data were used to estimate tax revenue recovery if cigarette trafficking could be eliminated. We also estimated the extent to which eliminating cigarette trafficking would reduce cigarette consumption. Results Overall, 58.7% of packs did not have a proper local tax stamp, and 30.5–42.1% were attributed to trafficking. We estimate that eliminating cigarette trafficking would result in declines in youth smoking prevalence ranging from negligible in low-tax cities like Philadelphia to up to 9.3% in higher-tax NYC. We estimate that these five cities could recoup

The Impact of an Urban WalMart Store on Area Businesses: The Chicago Case

680–729 million annually in cigarette tax revenue if cigarette trafficking was eliminated. Conclusions Reducing cigarette trafficking would increase the effectiveness of tobacco taxes in reducing smoking and generate additional tax revenue, particularly in higher-taxed cities. Federal action to reduce cigarette trafficking, such as a track-and-trace system, is needed.

The effect of tax increment financing on land use

We use data on all Wisconsin municipalities during the period 1990–2003 to study the effect of tax increment finance (TIF) on economic development. We use appropriate statistical techniques to measure the impact of TIF and control variables on aggregate property values. We also examine the possibility communities that use TIF are self‐selected. We find little evidence that TIF has led to significant increases in aggregate property values or that TIF increases the total value of residential and manufacturing property within a community. Surprisingly, we find positive impacts for commercial TIF districts.

Homicide and Deterrence: The Japanese Case

Since the end of World War II there has been a dramatic decrease in reported Japanese crime. Adult arrest rates have fallen steadily since the early 1950s and juvenile arrest rates have fallen since the early 1960s. An economic analysis of crime predicts that crime rates depend upon returns to crime relative to returns in legal pursuits and the certainty and severity of punishment. Regression analysis is used to test this theory using Japanese data. The empirical results indicate that the economic model does not outperform alternative naive models. However, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in returns to legitimate work diminish both adult and juvenile crime. Unemployment affects some adult crimes but has little impact on juvenile crime. The share of the population in poverty has no significant impact on either type of crime. Increases in the certainty of punishment deters adult crime but there is little evidence that increases in either the certainty or the severity of punishment deter juvenile crime. There is weak evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the severity of adult punishments deter crime.