David N. Wiese

Improved methods for observing Earth's time variable mass distribution with GRACE using spherical cap mascons

We discuss several classes of improvements to gravity solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. These include both improvements in background geophysical models and orbital parameterization leading to the unconstrained spherical harmonic solution JPL RL05, and an alternate JPL RL05M mass concentration (mascon) solution benefitting from those same improvements but derived in surface spherical cap mascons. The mascon basis functions allow for convenient application of a priori information derived from near-global geophysical models to prevent striping in the solutions. The resulting mass flux solutions are shown to suffer less from leakage errors than harmonic solutions, and do not necessitate empirical filters to remove north-south stripes, lowering the dependence on using scale factors (the global mean scale factor decreases by 0.17) to gain accurate mass estimates. Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) time series derived from the mascon solutions are shown to have greater correlation with in situ data than do spherical harmonic solutions (increase in correlation coefficient of 0.08 globally), particularly in low-latitude regions with small signal power (increase in correlation coefficient of 0.35 regionally), in addition to reducing the error RMS with respect to the in situ data (reduction of 0.37 cm globally, and as much as 1 cm regionally). Greenland and Antarctica mass balance estimates derived from the mascon solutions agree within formal uncertainties with previously published results. Computing basin averages for hydrology applications shows general agreement between harmonic and mascon solutions for large basins; however, mascon solutions typically have greater resolution for smaller spatial regions, in particular when studying secular signals.

Quantifying and reducing leakage errors in the JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution

Recent advances in processing data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) have led to a new generation of gravity solutions constrained within a Bayesian framework to remove correlated errors rather than relying on empirical filters. The JPL RL05M mascon solution is one such solution, solving for mass variations using spherical cap mass concentration elements (mascons), while relying on external information provided by near-global geophysical models to constrain the solution. This new gravity solution is fundamentally different than the traditional spherical harmonic gravity solution, and as such, requires different care when postprocessing. Here, we discuss two classes of postprocessing considerations for the JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution: (1) reducing leakage errors across land/ocean boundaries, and (2) scaling the solutions to account for leakage errors introduced through parameterizing the gravity solution in terms of mascons. A Coastline Resolution Improvement (CRI) filter is developed to reduce leakage errors across coastlines. Synthetic simulations reveal a reduction in leakage errors of ∼50%, such that residual leakage errors are ∼1 cm equivalent water height (EWH) averaged globally. A set of gain factors is derived to reduce leakage errors for continental hydrology applications. The combined effect of the CRI filter coupled with application of the gain factors, is shown to reduce leakage errors when determining the mass balance of large (>160,000 km2) hydrological basins from 11% - 30% (0.6-1.5 mm EWH) averaged globally, with local improvements up to 8% - 81% (9-19 mm EWH). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Global evaluation of new GRACE mascon products for hydrologic applications

Recent developments in mascon (mass concentration) solutions for GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data have significantly increased the spatial localization and amplitude of recovered terrestrial Total Water Storage anomalies (TWSA); however, land hydrology applications have been limited. Here we compare TWSA from April 2002 through March 2015 from (1) newly released GRACE mascons from the Center for Space Research (CSR-M) with (2) NASA JPL mascons (JPL-M), and with (3) CSR Tellus gridded spherical harmonics rescaled (sf) (CSRT-GSH.sf) in 176 river basins, ∼60% of the global land area. Time series in TWSA mascons (CSR-M and JPL-M) and spherical harmonics are highly correlated (rank correlation coefficients mostly >0.9). The signal from long-term trends (up to ±20 mm/yr) is much less than that from seasonal amplitudes (up to 250 mm). Net long-term trends, summed over all 176 basins, are similar for CSR and JPL mascons (66–69 km3/yr) but are lower for spherical harmonics (∼14 km3/yr). Long-term TWSA declines are found mostly in irrigated basins (−41 to −69 km3/yr). Seasonal amplitudes agree among GRACE solutions, increasing confidence in GRACE-based seasonal fluctuations. Rescaling spherical harmonics significantly increases agreement with mascons for seasonal fluctuations, but less for long-term trends. Mascons provide advantages relative to spherical harmonics, including (1) reduced leakage from land to ocean increasing signal amplitude, and (2) application of geophysical data constraints during processing with little empirical postprocessing requirements, making it easier for nongeodetic users. Results of this product intercomparison should allow hydrologists to better select suitable GRACE solutions for hydrologic applications.

North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies

Concerns about North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC) changes imply the need for a continuous, large-scale observation capability to detect changes on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we present the first measurements of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW) transport changes using only time-variable gravity observations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 until now. Improved monthly gravity field retrievals allow the detection of North Atlantic interannual bottom pressure anomalies and LNADW transport estimates that are in good agreement with those from the Rapid Climate Change-Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID/MOCHA). Concurrent with the observed AMOC transport anomalies from late 2009 through early 2010, GRACE measured ocean bottom pressures changes in the 3000–5000 m deep western North Atlantic on the order of 20 mm-H2O (200 Pa), implying a southward volume transport anomaly in that layer of approximately −5.5 sverdrup. Our results highlight the efficacy of space gravimetry for observing AMOC variations to evaluate latitudinal coherency and long-term variability.

Emerging trends in global freshwater availability

Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.Analysis of 2002–2016 GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage reveals substantial changes in freshwater resources globally, which are driven by natural and anthropogenic climate variability and human activities.

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Significance We increasingly rely on global models to project impacts of humans and climate on water resources. How reliable are these models? While past model intercomparison projects focused on water fluxes, we provide here the first comprehensive comparison of land total water storage trends from seven global models to trends from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, which have been likened to giant weighing scales in the sky. The models underestimate the large decadal (2002–2014) trends in water storage relative to GRACE satellites, both decreasing trends related to human intervention and climate and increasing trends related primarily to climate variations. The poor agreement between models and GRACE underscores the challenges remaining for global models to capture human or climate impacts on global water storage trends. Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated.

A comparison of watershed storage trends over the eastern and upper Midwestern regions of the United States, 2003–2015

Basin-scale groundwater storage trends calculated from long-term streamflow records provide insight into the evolution of watershed behaviors. Our study presents the first spatially-relevant validation of recession-based trend approaches by comparing three independent storage trend estimates using GRACE-derived groundwater storage, in-situ groundwater elevation observations and recession-based approaches for the time period of 2003-2015. Results documented consistent agreement between spatially-interpolated groundwater observation trends and recession-based storage trends, while GRACE-derived groundwater trends were found to exhibit variable, poor comparisons. A decreasing trend in watershed storage was identified in the southeastern U.S. while increasing trends were identified in the northeast and upper Midwest estimated from recession-based approaches. Our recession-based approach conducted using nested watershed streamflow records identified variable watershed storage trends at scales directly applicable for comparative hydrology studies and for assisting in watershed-based water resources management decisions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.