David Obor

Profile: The KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System—Western Kenya

The KEMRI/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) is located in Rarieda, Siaya and Gem Districts (Siaya County), lying northeast of Lake Victoria in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. The KEMRI/CDC HDSS, with approximately 220 000 inhabitants, has been the foundation for a variety of studies, including evaluations of insecticide-treated bed nets, burden of diarrhoeal disease and tuberculosis, malaria parasitaemia and anaemia, treatment strategies and immunological correlates of malaria infection, and numerous HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and diarrhoeal disease treatment and vaccine efficacy and effectiveness trials for more than a decade. Current studies include operations research to measure the uptake and effectiveness of the programmatic implementation of integrated malaria control strategies, HIV services, newly introduced vaccines and clinical trials. The HDSS provides general demographic and health information (such as population age structure and density, fertility rates, birth and death rates, in- and out-migrations, patterns of health care access and utilization and the local economics of health care) as well as disease- or intervention-specific information. The HDSS also collects verbal autopsy information on all deaths. Studies take advantage of the sampling frame inherent in the HDSS, whether at individual, household/compound or neighbourhood level.

A reversal in reductions of child mortality in Western Kenya, 2003-2009

We report and explore changes in child mortality in a rural area of Kenya during 2003-2009, when major public health interventions were scaled-up. Mortality ratios and rates were calculated by using the Kenya Medical Research Institute/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Demographic Surveillance System. Inpatient and outpatient morbidity and mortality, and verbal autopsy data were analyzed. Mortality ratios for children less than five years of age decreased from 241 to 137 deaths/1,000 live-births in 2003 and 2007 respectively. In 2008, they increased to 212 deaths/1,000 live-births. Mortality remained elevated during the first 8 months of 2009 compared with 2006 and 2007. Malaria and/or anemia accounted for the greatest increases in child mortality. Stock-outs of essential antimalarial drugs during a time of increased malaria transmission and disruption of services during civil unrest may have contributed to increased mortality in 2008-2009. To maintain gains in child survival, implementation of good policies and effective interventions must be complemented by reliable supply and access to clinical services and essential drugs.

The feasibility of using mobile-phone based SMS reminders and conditional cash transfers to improve timely immunization in rural Kenya ☆

BACKGROUND Demand-side strategies could contribute to achieving high and timely vaccine coverage in rural Africa, but require platforms to deliver either messages or conditional cash transfers (CCTs). We studied the feasibility of using short message services (SMS) reminders and mobile phone-based conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to reach parents in rural Western Kenya. METHODS In a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), mothers with children aged 0-3 weeks old were approached to determine who had access to a mobile phone. SMS reminders were sent three days prior to and on the scheduled day of immunization for 1st (age 6 weeks) and 2nd doses (age 10 weeks) of DTP-HepB-Hib (Pentavalent) vaccine, using open-source Rapid SMS software. Approximately

Mortality and health among internally displaced persons in western Kenya following post-election violence, 2008: novel use of demographic surveillance

2.00 USD was sent as cash using mPESA, a mobile money transfer platform (2/3 of mothers), or airtime (1/3 of mothers) via phone if the child was vaccinated within 4 weeks of the scheduled date. Follow-up surveys were done when children reached 14 weeks of age. RESULTS We approached 77 mothers; 72 were enrolled into the study (26% owned a phone and 74% used someone elses). Of the 63 children with known vaccination status at 14 weeks of age, 57 (90%) received pentavalent1 and 54 (86%) received pentavalent2 within 4 weeks of their scheduled date. Of the 61 mothers with follow-up surveys administered at 14 weeks of age, 55 (90%) reported having received SMS reminders. Of the 54 women who reported having received SMS reminders and answered the CCT questions on the survey, 45 (83%) reported receiving their CCT. Most (89%) of mothers in the mPESA group obtained their cash within 3 days of being sent their credit via mobile phone. All mothers stated they preferred CCTs as cash via mobile phone rather than airtime. Of the 9 participants who did not vaccinate their children at the designated clinic 2(22%) cited refusals by husbands to participate in the study. CONCLUSION The data show that in rural Western Kenya mobile phone-based strategies are a potentially useful platform to deliver reminders and cash transfers. Follow-up studies are needed that provide evidence for the effectiveness of these strategies in improving vaccine coverage and timeliness.

Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate mortality and morbidity among internally displaced persons (IDPs) who relocated in a demographic surveillance system (DSS) area in western Kenya following post-election violence. METHODS In 2007, 204 000 individuals lived in the DSS area, where field workers visit households every 4 months to record migrations, births and deaths. We collected data on admissions among children < 5 years of age in the district hospital and developed special questionnaires to record information on IDPs. Mortality, migration and hospitalization rates among IDPs and regular DSS residents were compared, and verbal autopsies were performed for deaths. FINDINGS Between December 2007 and May 2008, 16 428 IDPs migrated into the DSS, and over half of them stayed 6 months or longer. In 2008, IDPs aged 15-49 years died at higher rates than regular residents of the DSS (relative risk, RR: 1.34; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.004-1.80). A greater percentage of deaths from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection occurred among IDPs aged > or = 5 years (53%) than among regular DSS residents (25-29%) (P < 0.001). Internally displaced children < 5 years of age did not die at higher rates than resident children but were hospitalized at higher rates (RR: 2.95; 95% CI: 2.44-3.58). CONCLUSION HIV-infected internally displaced adults in conflict-ridden parts of Africa are at increased risk of HIV-related death. Relief efforts should extend to IDPs who have relocated outside IDP camps, particularly if afflicted with HIV infection or other chronic conditions.

Individual level determinants for not receiving immunization, receiving immunization with delay, and being severely underimmunized among rural western Kenyan children

Background Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings. Objective To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories. Design All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex. Conclusions The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.Background Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings. Objective To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories. Design All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates. Results A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex. Conclusions The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.

HIV incidence in western Kenya during scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision: a population-based cohort analysis

BACKGROUND Estimating vaccination coverage and delays are important because these measures can identify at risk sub-populations who can be targeted with interventions and public health policies. This paper sought to determine estimates and risk factors for children in rural western Kenya who did not receive immunization, received immunization with delay, or were severely underimmunized. METHODS Caregivers of children aged 12-23 months old were surveyed for immunization history using written records from the immunization booklet. Risk factors for not receiving immunization, delayed immunization, and severe underimmunization were calculated using log-binomial regression. Children were categorized as delayed if a given immunization was received greater than four weeks from the age-appropriate scheduled date. Severely underimmunized children were those who were fully unvaccinated for more than 90 days and had three or more vaccines delayed or not given. RESULTS Immunization coverage for pentavalent1, pentavalent3, measles, and fully immunized child (FIC; BCG, three doses of polio, three doses of pentavalent, and measles vaccines) were 99%, 94%, 83%, and 80%, respectively. Approximately, 10%, 24%, and 29%, of children were delayed for pentavalent1, pentavalent3, and measles, respectively. Each model produced a unique combination of risk factors with only advanced maternal age as a risk factor common to all models. Children with delayed receipt of pentavalent1 were at risk for not receiving pentavalent3 (RR: 5.20; 95%CI 3.48, 7.77), measles vaccine (RR: 1.48; 95%CI 1.12, 1.95), and not achieving FIC (RR: 1.88; 95%CI 1.51, 2.34) compared with children who received pentavalent1 on time. CONCLUSIONS Immunization coverage among 12-23 month old children was high, yet a substantial proportion of children were vaccinated with delay. Although vaccine coverage and timeliness are often conceptualized as separate measures, the finding that delayed pentavalent1 receipt was a strong risk factor for not receiving future immunizations indicates the two measures are intertwined.

Maternal influenza vaccine strategies in Kenya: Which approach would have the greatest impact on disease burden in pregnant women and young infants?

BACKGROUND In Kenya, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV infection has increased from 7% in 2006, to 57% in 2016; and, in western Kenya, coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) increased from 45% in 2008, to 72% in 2014. We investigated trends in HIV prevalence and incidence in a high burden area in western Kenya in 2011-16. METHODS In 2011, 2012, and 2016, population-based surveys were done via a health and demographic surveillance system and home-based counselling and testing in Gem, Siaya County, Kenya, including 28 688, 17 021, and 16 772 individuals aged 15-64 years. Data on demographic variables, self-reported HIV status, and risk factors were collected. Rapid HIV testing was offered to survey participants. Participants were tracked between surveys by use of health and demographic surveillance system identification numbers. HIV prevalence was calculated as a proportion, and HIV incidence was expressed as number of new infections per 1000 person-years of follow-up. FINDINGS HIV prevalence was stable in participants aged 15-64 years: 15% (4300/28 532) in 2011, 12% (2051/16 875) in 2012, and 15% (2312/15 626) in 2016. Crude prevalences in participants aged 15-34 years were 11% (1893/17 197) in 2011, 10% (1015/10 118) in 2012, and 9% (848/9125) in 2016; adjusted for age and sex these prevalences were 11%, 9%, and 8%. 12 606 (41%) of the 30 520 non-HIV-infected individuals enrolled were seen again in at least one more survey round, and were included in the analysis of HIV incidence. HIV incidence was 11·1 (95% CI 9·1-13·1) per 1000 person-years from 2011 to 2012, and 5·7 (4·6-6·9) per 1000 person-years from 2012 to 2016. INTERPRETATION With increasing coverage of ART and VMMC, HIV incidence declined substantially in Siaya County between 2011 and 2016. VMMC, but not ART, was suggested to have a direct protective effect, presumably because ART tended to be given to individuals with advanced HIV infection. HIV incidence is still high and not close to the elimination target of one per 1000 person-years. The effect of further scale-up of ART and VMMC needs to be monitored. FUNDING Data were collected under Cooperative Agreements with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with funding from the Presidents Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief.

Health care utilization and access to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and care and treatment services in a rural area with high HIV prevalence Nyanza Province Kenya 2007.

Background Recent influenza surveillance data from Africa suggest an important burden of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality. In tropical countries where influenza virus transmission may not be confined to a single season alternative strategies for vaccine distribution via antenatal care (ANC) or semiannual campaigns should be considered. Methods Using data on monthly influenza disease burden in women of child-bearing age and infants aged 0–5 months in Kenya from 2010–2014, we estimated the number of outcomes (illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths) that occurred and that may have been averted through influenza vaccination of pregnant women using: 1) a year-round immunization strategy through ANC, 2) annual vaccination campaigns, and 3) semiannual vaccination campaigns. Results During 2010–2014, influenza resulted in an estimated 279,047 illnesses, 36,276 medical visits, 1612 hospitalizations and 243 deaths in pregnant women and 157,053 illnesses, 65,177 medical visits, 4197 hospitalizations, and 755 deaths in infants aged 0–5 months in Kenya. Depending on the mode of distribution and the vaccine coverage achieved, 12.8–31.4% of influenza-associated disease in pregnant women and 11.6–22.1% in infants aged 0–5 months might have been prevented through maternal influenza immunization. In this model, point estimates for influenza-associated disease averted through maternal vaccination delivered year-round in ANC or semiannually in campaigns were higher than vaccination delivered in a single annual campaign, but confidence intervals overlapped. Conclusions Vaccinating pregnant women against influenza can reduce the burden of influenza-associated illness, hospitalization and death in both pregnant women and their young infants. Alternative immunization strategies may avert more influenza-associated disease in countries where influenza virus transmission occurs throughout the year.

Do Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Conditions in Primary Schools Consistently Support Schoolgirls’ Menstrual Needs? A Longitudinal Study in Rural Western Kenya

We present health and demographic surveillance system data to assess associations with health care utilization and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) service receipt in a high HIV prevalence area of western Kenya. Eighty-six percent of 15,302 residents indicated a facility/clinician for routine medical services; 60% reported active (within the past year) attendance. Only 34% reported a previous HIV test, and self-reported HIV prevalence was 6%. Active attendees lived only slightly closer to their reported service site (2.8 versus 3.1 km; P < 0.001) compared with inactive attendees. Multivariate analysis showed that younger respondents (< 30 years of age) and active and inactive attendees were more likely to report an HIV test compared with non-attendees; men were less likely to report HIV testing. Despite traveling farther for HIV services (median distance = 4.4 km), 77% of those disclosing HIV infection reported HIV care enrollment. Men and younger respondents were less likely to enroll in HIV care. Socioeconomic status was not associated with HIV service use. Distance did not appear to be the major barrier to service receipt. The health and demographic surveillance system data identified patterns of service use that are useful for future program planning.