David Pascual-Ezama

Which Characteristics Predict the Survival of Insolvent Firms? An SME Reorganization Prediction Model

The negative impact of insolvency, especially in small and medium enterprises, informs the objective of this paper: to study the characteristics of bankrupt firms to achieve a preventive diagnosis for reorganization by means of artificial intelligence () methodologies such as rough set and methods. The models obtained show not only the key variables to predict insolvency, but also their relations and the critical values. Using only five firm characteristics (sector, size, number of shareholdings, return on assets, and cash ratio), our model could reduce delays and costs, since it is able to predict which firms will undergo reorganization or liquidation before the legal procedure.

WHY DO WE LIE? A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO THE DISHONESTY LITERATURE

Over the last decade, a massive body of research has been devoted to uncovering human dishonesty. In the present paper, we review more than a hundred papers from this literature and provide a comprehensive overview by first listing the existing theoretical frameworks, and then covering the common empirical approaches, synthesizing the demographic and personal characteristics of those who cheat, identifying the behavioural mechanisms found that affect dishonesty and finally we finish by discussing how the empirical evidence fit theory. Overall, the review concludes that many people behave dishonestly, but also that it is a highly malleable behavior sensitive to elements such as decision contexts, behaviour of others, state of mind and depletion. The review can be used as an overview of the dishonesty literature or as a guide or work of reference for selected topics of interest.

The types of stimuli loaded in memory can modulate its effects on visual search

The effects of memory load in visual search (VS) have shown a diversity of results from the absence through beneficial and detrimental effects of a concurrent memory load in VS performance. One of the hypotheses intended to explain the heterogeneity of results follows the idea proposed by certain models in the context of VS that the contents of working memory (WM) can modulate the attentional processes involved in VS (Desimone & Duncan, 1995; Duncan & Humphreys, 1989). In four experiments, we manipulated the similarity of information maintained in WM and those materials playing the role of target and distractors in the VS task. The results showed a beneficial effect in the first two experiments, where the materials in WM matched the target in VS. However, when they matched the distractors in the attentional task there is no effect in the slope of the search function. Present results strengthen those theories supporting that visual working memory is fractionated to allow for maintenance of items not essential to the attentional task (Downing & Dodds, 2004).

Peer Effects in Unethical Behavior: Standing or Reputation?

Recent empirical evidence shows that working in an unsupervised, isolated situation under competition, can increase dishonest behavior to achieve prestige. However, could working in a common space, in the presence of colleagues affect cheating? Here, we examine how familiar-peer influence, supervision and social incentives affect worker performance and dishonest behavior. First, we show that working in the presence of peers is an effective mechanism to constrain honest/dishonest behavior compared to an isolated work situation (experiment 1). Second, we demonstrate that the mere suspicion of dishonesty from another peer is not enough to affect individual cheating behavior (experiment 2), suggesting that reputation holds great importance in a worker’s self-image acting as a strong social incentives. Third, we show that when the suspicion of dishonesty increases with multiple peers behaving dishonestly, the desire to increase standing is sufficient to nudge individuals’ behavior back to cheating at the same levels as isolated situations (experiment 3).

Seleção dos fatores de risco nas políticas de seguro de automóveis: uma maneira de aprimorar os lucros das companhias de seguro

Objective – The objective of this paper is to test the validity of using ‘bonus-malus’ (BM) levels to classify policyholders satisfactorily. Design/methodology/approach – In order to achieve the proposed objective and to show empirical evidence, an artificial intelligence method, Rough Set theory, has been employed. Findings – The empirical evidence shows that common risk factors employed by insurance companies are good explanatory variables for classifying car policyholders’ policies. In addition, the BM level variable slightly increases the explanatory power of the a priori risks factors. Practical implications – To increase the prediction capacity of BM level, psychological questionnaires could be used to measure policyholders’ hidden characteristics. Contributions – The main contribution is that the methodology used to carry out research, the Rough Set Theory, has not been applied to this problem.

Contenido del informe de auditoría en el año previo a la declaración del concurso de acreedores. Contraste empírico para el caso español

ABSTRACT Este trabajo analiza empíricamente el contenido del informe de auditoría de empresas concursadas correspondiente al año anterior al concurso de acreedores, con un doble objetivo: proponer una clasificación de dicho contenido y estudiar la existencia de diferencias en los informes en función de características del auditor y de la firma auditada. Utilizando una muestra de deudores españoles concursados en el período 2004–2014, los resultados revelan que el 13% de los informes son limpios o no incluyen ningún comentario del auditor, y que son más frecuentes las salvedades que los párrafos de énfasis. Un 23% de las advertencias emitidas informan sobre la declaración concursal y un 45% alertan sobre dudas a la gestión continuada. Asimismo, existen diferencias en función del tamaño del auditor, del sector y la situación financiera de la concursada, del trimestre en que se dicte el auto de declaración y de la resolución, mientras que el contenido es independiente del cambio de auditor. Nuestros resultados avalan la utilidad del informe en el pronóstico del riesgo empresarial, utilidad que se verá incrementada con la nueva Ley de Auditoría de Cuentas y su requerimiento de hacer mención expresa del riesgo financiero en caso de dudas a la gestión continuada.

The role of emotions arising from instability in investment behaviour / El papel de la carga emocional de la inestabilidad en el comportamiento de inversión

Abstract Clear empirical evidence has been found on how significant changes to a person’s environment can alter their behaviour. This is important when considering investments made on the stock exchange as the variations that occur in stock market prices are frequent and continuous. This study analyses the role instability has on individual investors’ behaviour when investing in the stock market. The results suggest that instability in investment situations plays a significant role in individual investors’ behaviour, probably due to the emotional effect provoked by the possibility of suddenly losing savings. This would modify the perception investors have about investing as well as their intentions, attitudes and feelings of control in regards to investment in financial markets, thus hindering the capacity to predict their behaviour.