David Philip McArthur

The role of young users in determining long-term care expenditure in Norway

Aims: In Norway, it is the responsibility of the country’s 429 municipalities to provide long term care (LTC) services to their residents. Recent years have seen a sharp rise in the number of LTC users under the age of 65. This article aims to explore the effect of this rise on LTC expenditure. Methods: Panel data models are used on data from municipalities from 1986 to 2011. An instrumental variable approach is also utilized to account for possible endogeneity related to the number of young users. Results: The number of young users appears to have a strong effect on LTC expenditure. There is also evidence of municipalities exercising discretion in defining eligibility criteria for young users in order to limit expenditure. Conclusions: The rise in the number of young LTC users presents a long-term challenge to the sustainability of LTC financing. The current budgeting system appears to compensate municipalities for expenditure on young LTC users.

Employment, Transport Infrastructure, and Rural Depopulation: A New Spatial Equilibrium Model

In this paper we propose a new spatial equilibrium model, and use it to discuss issues related to rural depopulation. The discussion focuses on how investments in transport infrastructure and the spatial distribution of basic-sector jobs can promote a relatively balanced growth of peripheral and central areas of a region. Through interdependencies in individual migration decisions and an economic base multiplier mechanism, negative exogenous shocks may take a peripheral zone beyond a bifurcation point, into an equilibrium of dramatically lower population and employment. We study how the location of bifurcation points depend on spatial interaction behavioural parameters and variables subject to regional policy. We also discuss the issue of the timing of interventions intended to prevent a process of rural depopulation.

Exploring the Determinants of Regional Unemployment Disparities in Small Data Sets

While standard economic theory suggests that unemployment should be evenly distributed across space, casual observation of unemployment rates shows that this is not the case. This has led to the development of a substantial literature on the topic. Due to the complexity of the problem, it is not always clear what the root cause is. This is particularly true when considering a small geographic area with limited data. This article will explore what insights can be gained through the use of formal concept analysis and association rules. It is hoped that these techniques will be of use to both theoreticians and policy makers.

Enhancing data privacy with semantic trajectories: a raster-based framework for GPS stop/move management

Tracking facilities on smartphones generate enormous amounts of GPS trajectories, which provide new opportunities to study movement patterns and improve transportation planning. Converting GPS trajectories into semantically meaningful trips is attracting increasing research effort with respect to the development of algorithms, frameworks, and software tools. There are, however, few works focused on designing new semantic enrichment functionalities taking privacy into account. This article presents a raster‐based framework which not only detects significant stop locations, segments GPS records into stop/move structures, and brings semantic insights to trips, but also provides possibilities to anonymize users’ movements and sensitive stay/move locations into raster cells/regions so that a multi‐level data sharing structure is achieved for a variety of data sharing purposes.

How Does Internet Usage Influence Young Travelers’ Choices?:

New technologies have significant effects on travel behavior, attitudes, habits and potentially future travel demand. Effects may be more prominent for Millennials. Little empirical research has investigated these relationships, mainly due to data limitations. This study focuses on the potential influence of using the Internet while traveling on Millennials’ plans for car ownership. We examine two questions: Does using the Internet while traveling influence trip frequencies? and Does it affect Millennials’ intention to purchase a car? Results suggest that Internet use while traveling is positively associated with travel demand and the intention to purchase a car in the near future.

Modelling Social Welfare Effects of Relocation and Road Pricing

Road pricing is a popular congestion reduction strategy. However, there may be wider impacts associated with a road toll. We consider a factor which is sometimes overlooked, namely that workers and firms may choose to change location in response to changes in the travel costs. A spatial equilibrium model is used to analyse suboptimalities in road pricing which may occur if relocations are ignored. We show that such suboptimalities can be substantial. The advantage of the model we use over many existing approaches is that it is easy to implement, and requires very little data.

Optimum congestion pricing in a complex network

Road tolls are a well established way of dealing with problems of congestion. Over recent years, the literature has expanded to take account of how congestion charges might interact with imperfections in other markets. In this paper, we consider the case where congestion occurs within a complex road network, with congestion on multiple links. To derive a truly optimal toll, account must be taken of the entire network. As a case study, we take a stylised version of the road network in Bergen, Norway.

Rural depopulation, labour market accessibility and housing prices

Accessibility models not only help to explain spatial and transport developments in developed and developing countries but also are powerful tools to explain the equity and efficiency impacts of urban and transport policies and projects. In this book, leading researchers from around the world show the importance of accessibility in contemporary issues such as rural depopulation, investments in public services and public transport and transport infrastructure investments in Europe.

Transport networks and accessibility: complex spatial interactions

A worker might respond to an unfortunate local labour market situation by commuting or migrating to a zone with better prospects. This decision depends on the labour market accessibility of the worker’s current residential location. A spatial equilibrium model is applied to analyse the interactions between commuting, migration, firm relocation and accessibility. The analysis is based on numerical examples, experimenting with characteristics of the transportation network and the spatial distribution of jobs. We study how the effects of such shocks depend on behavioural responses to different aspects of labour market accessibility. We also study the cumulative causation aspect of accessibility, whereby highly accessible areas attract jobs and workers, further enhancing the accessibility of such zones.

The Impact of Pecuniary Costs on Commuting Flows

In western Norway, fjords cause disconnections in the road network, necessitating the use of ferries. In several cases, ferries have been replaced by roads, often part-financed by tolls. We use data on commuting from a region with a high number of ferries, tunnels and bridges. Using a doubly-constrained gravity-based model specification, we focus on how commuting responds to varying tolls and ferry prices. Focus is placed on the role played by tolls on infrastructure in inhibiting spatial interaction. We show there is considerable latent demand, and suggest that these tolls contradict the aim of greater territorial cohesion.