David Pilcher

Mortality Related to Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Among Critically Ill Patients in Australia and New Zealand, 2000-2012

IMPORTANCE Severe sepsis and septic shock are major causes of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. It is unknown whether progress has been made in decreasing their mortality rate. OBJECTIVE To describe changes in mortality for severe sepsis with and without shock in ICU patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective, observational study from 2000 to 2012 including 101,064 patients with severe sepsis from 171 ICUs with various patient case mix in Australia and New Zealand. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hospital outcome (mortality and discharge to home, to other hospital, or to rehabilitation). RESULTS Absolute mortality in severe sepsis decreased from 35.0% (95% CI, 33.2%-36.8%; 949/2708) to 18.4% (95% CI, 17.8%-19.0%; 2300/12,512; P < .001), representing an overall decrease of 16.7% (95% CI, 14.8%-18.6%), an annual rate of absolute decrease of 1.3%, and a relative risk reduction of 47.5% (95% CI, 44.1%-50.8%). After adjusted analysis, mortality decreased throughout the study period with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.49 (95% CI, 0.46-0.52) in 2012, using the year 2000 as the reference (P < .001). The annual decline in mortality did not differ significantly between patients with severe sepsis and those with all other diagnoses (OR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.94-0.95] vs 0.94 [95% CI, 0.94-0.94]; P = .37). The annual increase in rates of discharge to home was significantly greater in patients with severe sepsis compared with all other diagnoses (OR, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.02-1.03] vs 1.01 [95% CI, 1.01-1.01]; P < .001). Conversely, the annual increase in the rate of patients discharged to rehabilitation facilities was significantly less in severe sepsis compared with all other diagnoses (OR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.07-1.09] vs 1.09 [95% CI, 1.09-1.10]; P < .001). In the absence of comorbidities and older age, mortality was less than 5%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In critically ill patients in Australia and New Zealand with severe sepsis with and without shock, there was a decrease in mortality from 2000 to 2012. These findings were accompanied by changes in the patterns of discharge to home, rehabilitation, and other hospitals.

Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Criteria in Defining Severe Sepsis

BACKGROUND The consensus definition of severe sepsis requires suspected or proven infection, organ failure, and signs that meet two or more criteria for the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We aimed to test the sensitivity, face validity, and construct validity of this approach. METHODS We studied data from patients from 172 intensive care units in Australia and New Zealand from 2000 through 2013. We identified patients with infection and organ failure and categorized them according to whether they had signs meeting two or more SIRS criteria (SIRS-positive severe sepsis) or less than two SIRS criteria (SIRS-negative severe sepsis). We compared their characteristics and outcomes and assessed them for the presence of a step increase in the risk of death at a threshold of two SIRS criteria. RESULTS Of 1,171,797 patients, a total of 109,663 had infection and organ failure. Among these, 96,385 patients (87.9%) had SIRS-positive severe sepsis and 13,278 (12.1%) had SIRS-negative severe sepsis. Over a period of 14 years, these groups had similar characteristics and changes in mortality (SIRS-positive group: from 36.1% [829 of 2296 patients] to 18.3% [2037 of 11,119], P<0.001; SIRS-negative group: from 27.7% [100 of 361] to 9.3% [122 of 1315], P<0.001). Moreover, this pattern remained similar after adjustment for baseline characteristics (odds ratio in the SIRS-positive group, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96 to 0.97; odds ratio in the SIRS-negative group, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.98; P=0.12 for between-group difference). In the adjusted analysis, mortality increased linearly with each additional SIRS criterion (odds ratio for each additional criterion, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.15; P<0.001) without any transitional increase in risk at a threshold of two SIRS criteria. CONCLUSIONS The need for two or more SIRS criteria to define severe sepsis excluded one in eight otherwise similar patients with infection, organ failure, and substantial mortality and failed to define a transition point in the risk of death. (Funded by the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Research Centre.).

Very old patients admitted to intensive care in Australia and New Zealand: a multi-centre cohort analysis.

IntroductionOlder age is associated with higher prevalence of chronic illness and functional impairment, contributing to an increased rate of hospitalization and admission to intensive care. The primary objective was to evaluate the rate, characteristics and outcomes of very old (age ≥ 80 years) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs).MethodsRetrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the Australian New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database. Data were obtained for 120,123 adult admissions for ≥ 24 hours across 57 ICUs from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2005.ResultsA total of 15,640 very old patients (13.0%) were admitted during the study. These patients were more likely to be from a chronic care facility, had greater co-morbid illness, greater illness severity, and were less likely to receive mechanical ventilation. Crude ICU and hospital mortalities were higher (ICU: 12% vs. 8.2%, P < 0.001; hospital: 24.0% vs. 13%, P < 0.001). By multivariable analysis, age ≥ 80 years was associated with higher ICU and hospital death compared with younger age strata (ICU: odds ratio (OR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.4 to 3.0; hospital: OR = 5.4, 95% CI = 4.9 to 5.9). Factors associated with lower survival included admission from a chronic care facility, co-morbid illness, nonsurgical admission, greater illness severity, mechanical ventilation, and longer stay in the ICU. Those aged ≥ 80 years were more likely to be discharged to rehabilitation/long-term care (12.3% vs. 4.9%, OR = 2.7, 95% CI = 2.6 to 2.9). The admission rates of very old patients increased by 5.6% per year. This potentially translates to a 72.4% increase in demand for ICU bed-days by 2015.ConclusionsThe proportion of patients aged ≥ 80 years admitted to intensive care in Australia and New Zealand is rapidly increasing. Although these patients have more co-morbid illness, are less likely to be discharged home, and have a greater mortality than younger patients, approximately 80% survive to hospital discharge. These data also imply a potential major increase in demand for ICU bed-days for very old patients within a decade.

Predicting Survival after Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Severe Acute Respiratory Failure. The Respiratory Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Survival Prediction (RESP) Score

RATIONALE Increasing use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for acute respiratory failure may increase resource requirements and hospital costs. Better prediction of survival in these patients may improve resource use, allow risk-adjusted comparison of center-specific outcomes, and help clinicians to target patients most likely to benefit from ECMO. OBJECTIVES To create a model for predicting hospital survival at initiation of ECMO for respiratory failure. METHODS Adult patients with severe acute respiratory failure treated by ECMO from 2000 to 2012 were extracted from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) international registry. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create the Respiratory ECMO Survival Prediction (RESP) score using bootstrapping methodology with internal and external validation. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Of the 2,355 patients included in the study, 1,338 patients (57%) were discharged alive from hospital. The RESP score was developed using pre-ECMO variables independently associated with hospital survival on logistic regression, which included age, immunocompromised status, duration of mechanical ventilation before ECMO, diagnosis, central nervous system dysfunction, acute associated nonpulmonary infection, neuromuscular blockade agents or nitric oxide use, bicarbonate infusion, cardiac arrest, PaCO2, and peak inspiratory pressure. The receiver operating characteristics curve analysis of the RESP score was c = 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.76). External validation, performed on 140 patients, exhibited excellent discrimination (c = 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.97). CONCLUSIONS The RESP score is a relevant and validated tool to predict survival for patients receiving ECMO for respiratory failure.

Predicting survival after ECMO for refractory cardiogenic shock: the survival after veno-arterial-ECMO (SAVE)-score

RATIONALE Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) may provide mechanical pulmonary and circulatory support for patients with cardiogenic shock refractory to conventional medical therapy. Prediction of survival in these patients may assist in management of these patients and comparison of results from different centers. AIMS To identify pre-ECMO factors which predict survival from refractory cardiogenic shock requiring ECMO and create the survival after veno-arterial-ECMO (SAVE)-score. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients with refractory cardiogenic shock treated with veno-arterial ECMO between January 2003 and December 2013 were extracted from the international Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry. Multivariable logistic regression was performed using bootstrapping methodology with internal and external validation to identify factors independently associated with in-hospital survival. Of 3846 patients with cardiogenic shock treated with ECMO, 1601 (42%) patients were alive at hospital discharge. Chronic renal failure, longer duration of ventilation prior to ECMO initiation, pre-ECMO organ failures, pre-ECMO cardiac arrest, congenital heart disease, lower pulse pressure, and lower serum bicarbonate (HCO3) were risk factors associated with mortality. Younger age, lower weight, acute myocarditis, heart transplant, refractory ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation, higher diastolic blood pressure, and lower peak inspiratory pressure were protective. The SAVE-score (area under the receiver operating characteristics [ROC] curve [AUROC] 0.68 [95%CI 0.64-0.71]) was created. External validation of the SAVE-score in an Australian population of 161 patients showed excellent discrimination with AUROC = 0.90 (95%CI 0.85-0.95). CONCLUSIONS The SAVE-score may be a tool to predict survival for patients receiving ECMO for refractory cardiogenic shock (www.save-score.com).

Early Lung Transplantation Success Utilizing Controlled Donation After Cardiac Death Donors

Donation‐after cardiac death (DCD) donor organs have potential to significantly alleviate the shortage of transplantable lungs. However, only limited data so far describes DCD lung transplantation (LTx) techniques and results. This study aims to describe the Alfred Hospitals early and intermediate outcomes following DCD donor LTx. Following careful experimentation and consultation DCD guidelines were created to utilize Maastricht category III lung donors from either the ICU or operating room(OR), with a warm ischemic time(WIT) of <60 min. Between May 2006 and December 2007, 22 referred DCD donors led to 11 attempted retrievals after withdrawal, resulting in 8 actual bilateral LTx (2 donors did not arrest in prescribed period and 1 donor had nonacceptable lungs). ICU WIT = 38.4 min (range 20–54, OR WIT = 12.7 min (11–15), p < 0.05. Post‐LTx, 1 pulmonary hypertensive patient required ECMO for PGD3. The mean group pO2/FiO2 ratio at 24 hours was 307.7 (240–507) with an ICU stay of 9.5 days (2–21) and ward stay of 21.5 days (11–76). All 8 survive at a mean of 311 days (10–573) with good performance status and lung function. In conclusion, the use of Maastricht category III lungs for human LTx is associated with acceptable early clinical outcomes.

Prognostic Accuracy of the SOFA Score, SIRS Criteria, and qSOFA Score for In-Hospital Mortality Among Adults With Suspected Infection Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

Importance The Sepsis-3 Criteria emphasized the value of a change of 2 or more points in the Sequential [Sepsis-related] Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, introduced quick SOFA (qSOFA), and removed the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria from the sepsis definition. Objective Externally validate and assess the discriminatory capacities of an increase in SOFA score by 2 or more points, 2 or more SIRS criteria, or a qSOFA score of 2 or more points for outcomes among patients who are critically ill with suspected infection. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective cohort analysis of 184 875 patients with an infection-related primary admission diagnosis in 182 Australian and New Zealand intensive care units (ICUs) from 2000 through 2015. Exposures SOFA, qSOFA, and SIRS criteria applied to data collected within 24 hours of ICU admission. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. In-hospital mortality or ICU length of stay (LOS) of 3 days or more was a composite secondary outcome. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Adjusted analyses were performed using a model of baseline risk determined using variables independent of the scoring systems. Results Among 184 875 patients (mean age, 62.9 years [SD, 17.4]; women, 82 540 [44.6%]; most common diagnosis bacterial pneumonia, 32 634 [17.7%]), a total of 34 578 patients (18.7%) died in the hospital, and 102 976 patients (55.7%) died or experienced an ICU LOS of 3 days or more. SOFA score increased by 2 or more points in 90.1%; 86.7% manifested 2 or more SIRS criteria, and 54.4% had a qSOFA score of 2 or more points. SOFA demonstrated significantly greater discrimination for in-hospital mortality (crude AUROC, 0.753 [99% CI, 0.750-0.757]) than SIRS criteria (crude AUROC, 0.589 [99% CI, 0.585-0.593]) or qSOFA (crude AUROC, 0.607 [99% CI, 0.603-0.611]). Incremental improvements were 0.164 (99% CI, 0.159-0.169) for SOFA vs SIRS criteria and 0.146 (99% CI, 0.142-0.151) for SOFA vs qSOFA (P <.001). SOFA (AUROC, 0.736 [99% CI, 0.733-0.739]) outperformed the other scores for the secondary end point (SIRS criteria: AUROC, 0.609 [99% CI, 0.606-0.612]; qSOFA: AUROC, 0.606 [99% CI, 0.602-0.609]). Incremental improvements were 0.127 (99% CI, 0.123-0.131) for SOFA vs SIRS criteria and 0.131 (99% CI, 0.127-0.134) for SOFA vs qSOFA (P <.001). Findings were consistent for both outcomes in multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusions and Relevance Among adults with suspected infection admitted to an ICU, an increase in SOFA score of 2 or more had greater prognostic accuracy for in-hospital mortality than SIRS criteria or the qSOFA score. These findings suggest that SIRS criteria and qSOFA may have limited utility for predicting mortality in an ICU setting.

Outcomes, cost and long term survival of patients referred to a regional weaning centre

Background: Regional weaning centres provide cost effective care for patients who have undergone prolonged mechanical ventilation. There are few published European data on outcomes in these patients. Methods: Patients admitted for weaning to the Lane Fox Respiratory Unit (LFU) between January 1997 and December 2000 were identified. The proportion weaned from mechanical ventilation, in-hospital mortality, and subsequent survival after discharge were examined. Results: A total of 153 patients had been ventilated for a median of 26 days before transfer. The daily cost per patient stay was €1350. Fifty eight patients (38%) were fully weaned, 42 (27%) died, and 53 (35%) required ventilatory support at discharge from hospital of whom 36 (24%) required only nocturnal ventilation. Univariate analysis showed increasing age (OR 1.06, p<0.001), length of ICU stay (OR 1.02, p = 0.001), APACHE II predicted risk of death score (OR 1.02, p = 0.05), and a surgical cause for admission (OR 4.04) were associated with mortality. Neuromuscular/chest wall conditions were associated with low mortality (OR 0.36) but low likelihood of weaning from ventilation (OR 0.28). Female sex (OR 2.13, p = 0.03) and COPD (OR 2.81) were associated with successful weaning. Overall survival at 3 years from admission was 47%. Long term survival was lowest in patients with COPD. Conclusions: Most patients survived to leave hospital, the majority having been liberated from ventilatory support. Survivors were younger and spent less time ventilated in the referring ICU. The underlying diagnosis determined success of weaning, hospital survival, and long term outcome.

Arterial carbon dioxide tension and outcome in patients admitted to the intensive care unit after cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND Arterial carbon dioxide tension (PaCO2) affects neuronal function and cerebral blood flow. However, its association with outcome in patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac arrest (CA) has not been evaluated. METHODS AND RESULTS Observational cohort study using data from the Australian New Zealand (ANZ) Intensive Care Society Adult-Patient-Database (ANZICS-APD). Outcomes analyses were adjusted for illness severity, co-morbidities, hypothermia, treatment limitations, age, year of admission, glucose, source of admission, PaO2 and propensity score. We studied 16,542 consecutive patients admitted to 125 ANZ ICUs after CA between 2000 and 2011. Using the APD-PaCO2 (obtained within 24 h of ICU admission), 3010 (18.2%) were classified into the hypo- (PaCO2<35 mmHg), 6705 (40.5%) into the normo- (35-45 mmHg) and 6827 (41.3%) into the hypercapnia (>45 mmHg) group. The hypocapnia group, compared with the normocapnia group, had a trend toward higher in-hospital mortality (OR 1.12 [95% CI 1.00-1.24, p=0.04]), lower rate of discharge home (OR 0.81 [0.70-0.94, p<0.01]) and higher likelihood of fulfilling composite adverse outcome of death and no discharge home (OR 1.23 [1.10-1.37, p<0.001]). In contrast, the hypercapnia group had similar in-hospital mortality (OR 1.06 [0.97-1.15, p=0.19]) but higher rate of discharge home among survivors (OR 1.16 [1.03-1.32, p=0.01]) and similar likelihood of fulfilling the composite outcome (OR 0.97 [0.89-1.06, p=0.52]). Cox-proportional hazards modelling supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS Hypo- and hypercapnia are common after ICU admission post-CA. Compared with normocapnia, hypocapnia was independently associated with worse clinical outcomes and hypercapnia a greater likelihood of discharge home among survivors.

A randomised controlled trial of an open lung strategy with staircase recruitment, titrated PEEP and targeted low airway pressures in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

IntroductionTidal volume and plateau pressure minimisation are the standard components of a protective lung ventilation strategy for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Open lung strategies, including higher positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and recruitment manoeuvres to date have not proven efficacious. This study examines the effectiveness and safety of a novel open lung strategy, which includes permissive hypercapnia, staircase recruitment manoeuvres (SRM) and low airway pressure with PEEP titration.MethodTwenty ARDS patients were randomised to treatment or ARDSnet control ventilation strategies. The treatment group received SRM with decremental PEEP titration and targeted plateau pressure < 30 cm H2O. Gas exchange and lung compliance were measured daily for 7 days and plasma cytokines in the first 24 hours and on days 1, 3, 5 and 7 (mean ± SE). Duration of ventilation, ICU stay and hospital stay (median and interquartile range) and hospital survival were determined.ResultsThere were significant overall differences between groups when considering plasma IL-8 and TNF-α. For plasma IL-8, the control group was 41% higher than the treatment group over the seven-day period (ratio 1.41 (1.11 to 1.79), P = 0.01), while for TNF-α the control group was 20% higher over the seven-day period (ratio 1.20 (1.01 to 1.42) P = 0.05). PaO2/FIO2 (204 ± 9 versus 165 ± 9 mmHg, P = 0.005) and static lung compliance (49.1 ± 2.9 versus 33.7 ± 2.7 mls/cm H2O, P < 0.001) were higher in the treatment group than the control group over seven days. There was no difference in duration of ventilation (180 (87 to 298) versus 341 (131 to 351) hrs, P = 0.13), duration of ICU stay (9.9 (5.6 to 14.8) versus 16.0 (8.1 to 19.3) days, P = 0.19) and duration of hospital stay (17.9 (13.7 to 34.5) versus 24.7 (20.5 to 39.8) days, P = 0.16) between the treatment and control groups.ConclusionsThis open lung strategy was associated with greater amelioration in some systemic cytokines, improved oxygenation and lung compliance over seven days. A larger trial powered to examine clinically-meaningful outcomes is warranted.Trial registrationACTRN12607000465459