David Pope

Do Migrants Rob Jobs? Lessons of Australian History, 1861–1991

Historically, lands of recent settlement have had a thirst for immigrants, but one that has been procyclical (negatively related to unemployment rates). For a period in the early 1980s, Australias major political parties supported high immigration in spite of rising unemployment. This article explores the long-run relationship between immigration and local unemployment, posing the question, “Do migrants rob jobs?†It also seeks to apply long-run historical analysis to recent economic debate: would Australias unemployment rate have been lower in very recent times without so many immigrants?

Immigration, Wages and Price Stability

Once again immigration is on the political agenda. People are questioning the wisdom, on economic, political, cultural and environmental grounds, of having a large-scale immigration program. This report investigates only one aspect of the economic dimension of this issue. Our study considers the issue of immigration and wage and price inflation. This is a daunting task as economists have struggled with explaining the determinants of inflation over (especially) the last two decades. Numerous theories have been propounded; several have been confronted with data from Australia to Zambia, however no clear consensus has emerged. We still have at least two strong contenders for the centre stage: firstly, some version of an augmented Phillips curve, and secondly, some version of a cost-push theory, e.g. real wage resistance, commodity prices (these two contenders are not necessarily mutually exclusive).

Recent Immigrants and Housing

Immigration is part of Australia’s past economic development and growth. Equally, housing an expanding population—and the style in which it is housed—has been a keystone of the ‘Australian Dream’. Nonetheless, changing circumstances in the labour and housing markets, and the recasting of views concerning Australia’s defence needs and geographic constraints—including the cost to the environment of greater numbers—has led to concern about large scale immigration. These concerns are often voiced in the form of the following questions: How do new immigrants fare in the housing market? Do they affect the housing choices of resident Australians? Do prices rise in response to an increase in immigration?

Rostow's Kondratieff Cycle in Australia

The turn of economic events in the early 1970s correlates with a revival of ideas about the existence of long swings in economic development. The subject of Kondratieff cycles has attracted the pens of social scientists of very different persuasions. This paper draws on Walt W. Rostows interpretation—with its emphasis on the role of exporters of food and raw materials in the world economy—to explore Australian long waves over the last 110 years. I conclude that the case for their existence is not confirmed and moreover that Rostows cycle-mechanics offer a doubtful explication of movements in the Australian series.

Immigration and Australia’s External Account Balances

The last decade has seen a steadily increasing awareness of the role that immigration plays in Australia’s economic, social and political development. There has been a lively debate on the causes and consequences of Australia’s growing current account deficits and foreign debt. However, it is not always realised that current account deficits are not a new phenomenon for Australia. Australia has had persistent current account deficits for over the past century and a quarter except for brief periods at the beginning of the twentieth century, immediately after the Second World War, and after the commodity price boom of the 1970s.