David Roder

The epidemiology of gastric cancer

Gastric cancer mortality has declined markedly around the world. In South Australia, the reduction approximated 40% over the last 20 years. Possible reasons include: better refrigeration; reduced consumption of salted, smoked, and chemically preserved foods; increased intake of fruit and vegetables; and improved living standards and a greater use of antibiotics, which may have reduced Helicobacter pylori infection. Reductions generally have been greater for intestinal than diffuse histopathologies. Gastric cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide, probably accounting for about 10% of newly diagnosed cancers. High rates apply to Japan, China, Central and South America, Eastern Europe, and parts of the Middle East, and low rates to North America, Australia and New Zealand, Northern Europe, and India. Rates usually are higher in lower socioeconomic groups. Five-year relative survivals of around 20% or less are frequently reported. A figure of 50% or more has been cited for Japan, where there has been radiological screening, although this exceptional figure could have been affected artificially by lead-time and related effects. Male-to-female incidence ratios generally are in the 1.5–2.5 range, with higher ratios for intestinal than diffuse cancers and higher-risk populations. In South Australia, the ratio has been 1.8 to one, although higher at 4.6 to one for cardia lesions. Recent increases in cardia cancers, especially in males in populations of European extraction, often are accompanied by increases for esophageal adenocarcinoma. It is estimated that the global burden of gastric cancer could be reduced by up to 50% by dietary changes that included an increased intake of fruit and vegetables.

Factors Predictive of Corneal Graft Survival: Report from the Australian Corneal Graft Registry

Risk factors for graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty were investigated in 961 patients from records collected prospectively by the Australian Corneal Graft Registry. The most common cause of graft failure was irreversible rejection. A multivariate proportional hazards regression analysis indicated that the key predictors of graft failure were: an indication for graft other than keratoconus or corneal dystrophy; a failed previous graft (ipsilateral eye); aphakia; inflammation at the time of graft; presence of an anterior chamber or iris-clip intraocular lens; graft size outside the range of 7.0 to 7.9 mm diameter; and corneal vascularization occurring in the postoperative period.

Increased age and mortality associated with cervical carcinomas negative for human papillomavirus RNA

Attempts to relate presence and type of human papillomavirus in cervical carcinoma with prognosis have yielded conflicting results. To further investigate this relation, the association between survival of cervical cancer patients after diagnosis and the presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) RNA within the tumour was assessed retrospectively. Formalin-fixed biopsy specimens from 212 patients with cervical carcinoma who had been followed for up to 6 years were tested by in-situ hybridisation with 125I-labelled riboprobes. HPV-RNA-positive women were 11.9 years younger than HPV-negative women at diagnosis (p less than 0.001). Case-fatality rates from cervical cancer rose with absence of HPV RNA, age at diagnosis, or FIGO stage. Multivariate analysis confirmed that absence of detectable HPV RNA and advanced FIGO stage were independent risk factors. No differences in survival between HPV types 16, 18, 31, or 33 were seen. These observations suggest that cervical carcinoma patients fall into two groups--a younger, HPV-RNA-positive group, with a better prognosis, and an older, HPV-RNA-negative group with poorer prognosis. Treatment regimens for the two groups may need to differ.

Factors predictive of preferred place of death in the general population of South Australia.

In a population survey, 2652 respondents aged 15+years reported their preferred place of death, if dying of ‘a terminal illness such as cancer or emphysema’, to be home (70%), a hospital (19%), hospice (10%), or nursing home (< 1%). The majority of respondents in all socio-demographic categories reported a preference for dying at home, with the greatest majorities occurring in younger age groups. After weighting to the age-sex distribution of all South Australian cancer deaths, 58% in our survey declared a preference to die at home, which is much higher than the 14% of cancer deaths that actually occurred at home in South Australia in 2000-2002. Multivariable analyses indicate that predictors of preferred home death include younger age, male, born in the UK/Ireland or Italy/Greece, better physical health, poorer mental health, and fewer concerns about dying at home. Predictors of preference for death in a hospice rather than hospital include older age, female, single, metropolitan residence, having higher educational and income levels, paid employment, awareness of advanced directives, and interpreting ‘dying with dignity’ as death without pain or suffering. Investigating the differences between preferred and actual places of death may assist service providers to meet end-of-life wishes.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of adding a human papillomavirus vaccine to the Australian National Cervical Cancer Screening Program

BACKGROUND The cost-effectiveness of adding a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine to the Australian National Cervical Screening Program compared to screening alone was examined. METHODS A Markov model of the natural history of HPV infection that incorporates screening and vaccination was developed. A vaccine that prevents 100% of HPV 16/18-associated disease, with a lifetime duration of efficacy and 80% coverage offered through a school program to girls aged 12 years, in conjunction with current screening was compared with screening alone using cost (in Australian dollars) per life-year (LY) saved and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved. Sensitivity analyses included determining the cost-effectiveness of offering a catch-up vaccination program to 14-26-year-olds and accounting for the benefits of herd immunity. RESULTS Vaccination with screening compared with screening alone was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of

A comparison of asthma deaths and near-fatal asthma attacks in South Australia

51 103 per LY and

Medroxyprogesterone acetate therapy in advanced breast cancer: the predictive value of androgen receptor expression.

18 735 per QALY, assuming a cost per vaccine dose of

Review Paper: The Health Status of Migrants in Australia: A Review:

115. Results were sensitive to assumptions about the duration of vaccine efficacy, including the need for a booster (

Cancer survival for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians: a national study of survival rates and excess mortality

68 158 per LY and

The coverage of cancer patients by designated palliative services: a population-based study, South Australia, 1999

24 988 per QALY) to produce lifetime immunity. Accounting for herd immunity resulted in a more attractive ICER (