David S. Lyle

ESTIMATING AND INTERPRETING PEER AND ROLE MODEL EFFECTS FROM RANDOMLY ASSIGNED SOCIAL GROUPS AT WEST POINT

The random assignment of cadets to social groups at West Point provides a rare opportunity to highlight potentially misleading estimates of social group effects found in many studies. Estimates of contemporaneous group effects in human capital production are typically positive and significant; however, evidence in this study suggests that occurrences common to a group may account for much of this correlation. Models that address these biases provide little evidence of group effects in academic performance, although there is evidence of group influences in choice outcomes such as the selection of academic major and the decision to remain in the Army.

Using Military Deployments and Job Assignments to Estimate the Effect of Parental Absences and Household Relocations on Children’s Academic Achievement

Military deployments and job assignments provide an opportunity to estimate the impact of parental absences and household relocations on children’s academic achievement. Combining U.S. Army personnel data with children’s standardized test scores from Texas, I find that parental absences adversely affect children’s test scores by a tenth of a standard deviation. Likewise, household relocations have modest negative effects on children’s test scores. Both parental absences and household relocations have the greatest detrimental effect on test scores of children with single parents, children with mothers in the army, children with lower‐ability parents, and younger children.

An assessment of different scoring systems in cirrhotic patients undergoing nontransplant surgery.

BACKGROUND Determining surgical risk in cirrhotic patients is difficult and multiple scoring systems have sought to quantify this risk. The purpose of our study was to assess the impact of Childs-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-Sodium (MELD-Na) scores on postoperative morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing nontransplant surgery. METHODS We performed a single-center retrospective review of all cirrhotic patients who underwent nontransplant surgery under general anesthesia over a 6-year period of time to analyze outcomes using the 3 scoring systems. RESULTS Sixty-four cirrhotic patients (mean age, 57 y; 62 men) underwent nontransplant surgery under general anesthesia. A CTP score of ≥ 7.5 was associated with an 8.3-fold increased risk of 30-day morbidity, a MELD score of ≥ 14.5 was associated with a 5.4-fold increased risk of 3-month mortality, and a MELD-Na score ≥ 14.5 was associated with a 4.5-fold increased risk of 1-year mortality. Emergent surgery, the presence of ascites, and low serum sodium level were associated significantly with morbidity and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS The major strengths of the 3 scoring systems are for CTP in estimating 30-day morbidity, MELD for estimating 3-month mortality, and MELD-Na for estimating 1-year mortality.

The Impact of Disability Benefits on Labor Supply: Evidence from the Va's Disability Compensation Program

Combining administrative data from the U.S. Army, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and the U.S. Social Security Administration, we analyze the effect of the VA’s Disability Compensation (DC) program on veterans’ labor force participation and earnings. The largely unstudied Disability Compensation program currently provides income and health insurance to almost four million veterans of military service who suffer service-connected disabilities. We study a unique policy change, the 2001 Agent Orange decision, which expanded DC eligibility for Vietnam veterans who had served in-theatre to a broader set of conditions such as type 2 diabetes. Exploiting the fact that the Agent Orange policy excluded Vietnam era veterans who did not serve in-theatre, we assess the causal effects of DC eligibility by contrasting the outcomes of these two Vietnam-era veteran groups. The Agent Orange policy catalyzed a sharp increase in DC enrollment among veterans who served in-theatre, raising the share receiving benefits by five percentage points over five years. Disability ratings and payments rose rapidly among those newly enrolled, with average annual non-taxed federal transfer payments increasing to

The Effect of High-Performing Mentors on Junior Officer Promotion in the US Army

17K within five years. We estimate that benefits receipt reduced labor force participation by 18 percentage points among veterans enrolled due to the policy, though measured income net of transfer benefits rose on average. Consistent with the relatively advanced age and diminished health of Vietnam era veterans in this period, we estimate labor force participation elasticities that are somewhat higher than among the general population.

Shaping senior leader officer talent: using a multi-dimensional model of talent to analyze the effect of personnel management decisions and attrition on the flow of Army Officer talent throughout the officer career model

Military assignment mechanisms provide a unique opportunity to estimate the impact of high-performing mentors on job advancement of their subordinates. Combining US Army administrative data with officer evaluation reports, we find that high-performing mentors positively affect early junior officer promotion and that early promotion probabilities rise as the duration of the high-quality mentorship increases. These effects are largest for high-ability protégés. Junior officers who were exposed to multiple high-performing mentors did not experience an additional increase in promotion rates.

Shaping senior leader officer talent: how personnel management decisions and attrition impact the flow of army officer talent throughout the officer career model

Army Officer requirements for operational talent decline precipitously with increasing rank. While 80 percent of Junior Officers serve in operational billets, only 20 percent of Senior Leaders serve in operational billets. Yet despite this operational talent requirement inversion, Army development efforts tend to focus disproportionately on building operational talent. Moreover, career progression through the rank of General Officer tends to excessively favor officers who have spent most of their career in operational billets. By opening additional opportunities for officers who serve outside of operational billets to reach senior leader ranks, and by exposing more officers to opportunities that develop non-operational talents, the Army can mitigate against talent gaps at senior ranks. This analysis employs discrete event simulation to quantify the extent to which attrition, promotion, and the dynamically changing need for two types of talent (operational and non-operational) impact the distribution of talent available across the Armys officer ranks.

Military Deployments and Children's Academic Achievement: Evidence from Department of Defense Education Activity Schools.

Army Officers play a critical role in our nations security strategy. Throughout a career of service, officers develop talents through a unique and rare set of experiences, education, and formal training. The demand by corporations for these talents, coupled with a distinct feature of the Officer Career Model, limited lateral entry, create significant retention challenges for the U.S. Army. Understanding how personnel policies, resources, and organizational decisions affect the flow of officer talent through the Officer Career Model is a first step in addressing these retention challenges. This analysis employs discrete event simulation to quantify the probable impacts of attrition on the distribution of talent available for service across the Armys officer ranks.