David Sedik

Agricultural Development and Household Incomes in Central Asia: A Survey of Tajikistan, 2003-2008

Two noted specialists on the agricultural economies of the former Soviet Union examine the effects of land reform on agricultural production and the income of rural house-holds in Tajikistan. The authors utilize official government statistics to discern trends of agricultural output at the national level, and the results of three extensive surveys conducted in 2007-2008 (N > 2,000) and one in 2003 (N = 4,000 respondents) by international organizations (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Asian Development Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development, World Bank) to identify household-level changes. They also review the legislative framework for agrarian reform in the country; examine national-level trends in farm structure and organization, livestock production, farm productivity, and cropping patterns; and analyze shifts in size of land holdings and rural family incomes at the household level. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D130, O130, P320, Q150. 11 figures, 10 tables, 42 references.

Agricultural policy in Russia and WTO accession

This article analyzes the implications of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession for Russian agricultural policy. Using Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data on producer support from 2010, we identify two major characteristics of Russian agricultural and trade policy (a) reliance on sizeable differences between world and domestic prices to generate two-thirds of agricultural producer support and (b) highly distortionary budget support. We then consider whether the disciplines introduced by WTO accession will constrain or even roll back these distortionary policies, thereby substantially changing the nature of agricultural policies in Russia. Using data from OECD-FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and Russian Ministry of Agriculture projections, we conclude that the structure of OECD-type producer support in 2020 will be very similar to its current state. Market price support will continue to dominate the Producer Support Estimate, and the projected Current Total Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) will approach the WTO Bound Total AMS (the ceiling on production-distorting support) only in 2018. For the reasons above, we conclude that although WTO accession provides opportunities for important changes in Russian sanitary, phytosanitary, food safety, trade, and tariff policies, membership is not a guarantee of systemic change. In fact, a serious look at Russian WTO commitments makes a minimum-change scenario quite possible and even likely.

Agricultural Cooperative Development in Kazakhstan and Ukraine

This article reviews the evidence on agricultural service cooperatives in two countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)—Ukraine and Kazakhstan—and considers the reasons for their lack of development compared to the countries of North America and Western Europe. Only one farm in 246 in Ukraine and one in 31 in Hungary are members of a service cooperative, while in the US and France each farmer is a member of a service cooperative and in Italy every other farmer is a member (Table 1). There are also far more farms per cooperative in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Hungary, than in the countries of Western Europe and the US. Whereas there is only one cooperative for every 6,000 farms in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and for every 10,000 farms in Hungary, in France there exists one service cooperative for every 178 farms. This statistic also indicates that the development of service cooperatives in Eastern Europe and the CIS is far behind that in the US and Western Europe.

The New Wheat Exporters of Eurasia and Volatility

The rise of the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan and Ukraine as world wheat exporters has been accompanied by uncommonly volatile international commodity prices. This chapter will explore the role of the wheat-producing Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries in the volatility of international wheat prices. Studies of the connection between CIS wheat trade and international price volatility have predominantly focused on export restraints imposed by these countries between 2006 and 2011. We explore the literature on export restraints and price volatility, noting the short- and long-run effects of restraints. We also go beyond export restraints as a source of international price instability, pointing to two further potential sources of price volatility: production volatility and growing state intervention in grain markets in the wheat-producing CIS countries. Production volatility is caused mostly by weather variation and other agronomic factors. Such volatility has an understandable scientific basis, and can be controlled by the use of more inputs and better agronomic practices. Political border interventions aimed at limiting grain exports are of a different nature, since they are highly unpredictable. In this respect they are akin to the increased state measures, aimed at ‘stabilising’ and exerting state control over grain markets observed in the CIS wheat sector since 2001. Taken together, these policies do not bode well for the stability of grain prices in the future.

Cooperatives in Kyrgyzstan: Findings from a Survey of Cooperatives and Users

Most cooperatives in Kyrgyzstan are production cooperatives – successors of former collective farms. • There are hardly any “pure” service cooperatives, although production cooperatives partially fulfill the function of service cooperatives by providing farm services also to non-members.Cooperatives play a positive role in rural life: o sufficiency of services in any given area improves when cooperatives step in to provide the services; o farmers’ perceived wellbeing is higher for cooperative members than for outsiders. • Taxes are not perceived as a major issue by either cooperative managers or farmers. Tax code provisions exempting cooperatives from profit tax and VAT are generally respected. • Government support plays a minor role in agriculture: most cooperative managers and farmers surveyed report that they do not receive any support. This, however, has not led to a major outcry with demands for more government support in the survey. • Formal cooperation manifested in membership in cooperatives is very limited among the farmers surveyed. Informal cooperation is much more widespread, and the substantial gap between the frequency of formal and informal cooperation (8% and 22% of farmers surveyed, respectively) clearly suggests that there is a large potential for development and adoption of service cooperatives in Kyrgyzstan.Cooperatives play a positive role in rural life: o sufficiency of services in any given area improves when cooperatives step in to provide the services; o farmers’ perceived wellbeing is higher for cooperative members than for outsiders. • Taxes are not perceived as a major issue by either cooperative managers or farmers. Tax code provisions exempting cooperatives from profit tax and VAT are generally respected. • Government support plays a minor role in agriculture: most cooperative managers and farmers surveyed report that they do not receive any support. This, however, has not led to a major outcry with demands for more government support in the survey. • Formal cooperation manifested in membership in cooperatives is very limited among the farmers surveyed. Informal cooperation is much more widespread, and the substantial gap between the frequency of formal and informal cooperation (8% and 22% of farmers surveyed, respectively) clearly suggests that there is a large potential for development and adoption of service cooperatives in Kyrgyzstan.

The Feed-Livestock Nexus: Livestock Development Policy in Tajikistan

This chapter discusses livestock development policy in Tajikistan in the context of the transition from intensive to extensive livestock husbandry since the late 1980s. The structure of feed demand and supply in Tajikistan in the postindependence period is discussed in order to understand the driving factors behind feed imbalances. Measures to address feed shortages with projections to indicate anticipated effects are analyzed. A comprehensive livestock development strategy for Tajikistan could employ these measures as cornerstones of a program for improving the feed-livestock nexus for Tajikistan.