David Shambaugh

China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional Order

pinnings of international relations in Asia are undergoing profound change, and the rise of China is a principal cause. Other causes include the relative decline of U.S. inouence and authority in Asia, the expanding normative inouence of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the growth of regional multilateral institutions, increased technological and economic interdependence throughout the region, and the amelioration of several formerly antagonistic bilateral relationships. As a result of these processes, the structure of power and the nature of the regional system are being fundamentally altered. China’s growing economic and military power, expanding political inouence, distinctive diplomatic voice, and increasing involvement in regional multilateral institutions are key developments in Asian affairs. China’s new proactive regional posture is reoected in virtually all policy spheres— economic, diplomatic, and military—and this parallels China’s increased activism on the global stage.1 Bilaterally and multilaterally, Beijing’s diplomacy has been remarkably adept and nuanced, earning praise around the region. As a result, most nations in the region now see China as a good neighbor, a constructive partner, a careful listener, and a nonthreatening regional power. This regional perspective is striking, given that just a few years ago, many of China’s neighbors voiced growing concerns about the possibility of China becoming a domineering regional hegemon and powerful military threat. Today these views are muted. China’s new conadence is also reoected in how it perceives itself, as it gradually sheds its dual identity of historical victim and object of great power manipulation. These phenomena have begun to attract

Power shift : China and Asia's new dynamics

Acknowledgments Contributors Introduction: The Rise of China and Asias New Dynamics David Shambaugh PART ONE: CHINA AND THE CHANGING ASIAN LANDSCAPE 1. Return to the Middle Kingdom? China and Asia in the Early Twenty-first Century David Shambaugh 2. Chinas Regional Strategy Zhang Yunling and Tang Shiping PART TWO: THE ECONOMIC DIMENSION 3. Chinas Regional Trade and Investment Profile Hideo Ohashi 4. Chinas Regional Economies and the Asian Region: Building Interdependent Linkages Robert F. Ash PART THREE: POLITICS AND DIPLOMACY 5. China-Japan Relations: Downward Spiral or a New Equilibrium? Mike M. Mochizuki 6. Chinas Ascendancy and the Korean Peninsula: From Interest Reevaluation to Strategic Realignment? Jae Ho Chung 7. Taiwan Faces China: Attraction and Repulsion Richard Bush 8. China and Southeast Asia: The Context of a New Beginning Wang Gungwu 9. Chinas Influence in Central and South Asia: Is It Increasing? John W. Garver 10. China and Russia: Normalizing Their Strategic Partnership Yu Bin PART FOUR: SECURITY 11. Chinas Evolving Regional Security Strategy Bates Gill 12. Chinas Regional Military Posture Michael D. Swaine PART FIVE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES 13. Chinas Regional Strategy and Why It May Not Be Good for America Robert Sutter 14. Chinas Rise in Asia Need Not Be at Americas Expense David M. Lampton PART SIX: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASIAN REGION 15. The Transformation of the Asian Security Order: Assessing Chinas Impact Jonathan D. Pollack 16. The Evolving Asian Order: The Accommodation of Rising Chinese Power Michael Yahuda

Containment or Engagement of China?: Calculating Beijing's Responses

that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is becoming a defining element in post-Cold War international politics, but there is much debate about what this entails and how the world should deal with an ascendant China. China’s rise and behavior are particularly bedeviling to the United States, but Beijing also poses substantial challenges to Asian and European nations as well as international regimes. Whether China will become a military threat to its neighbors, an adversary of the United States, a systemic challenge to the global order, or an cultural-ideological challenge to the West remain open questions.’ But China’s sheer size and growing power are already altering the contours of Asian security, international commerce, and the global balance of power. A robust debate is under way in Western and Asian nations about how best to deal with the awakened dragon. The uncertainties about China’s future capabilities and intentions, and the debate about alternative policy options, have spawned a lucrative cottage industry among analysts and pundits in academia, corporations, banks, governments, and the media worldwide. Analysts can reasonably estimate China’s economic and military power a decade or more hence based on its present and projected financial, technological and material resources. Far more difficult to predict is China’s internal political and social cohesion, and how Beijing will wield its new strength. Will China be a satisfied mature power or an insecure nounem riche power? Will it become a power at all? Will it flex its muscles or will they atrophy? Will China hold together or fall apart? Will its polity evolve liberally or revert to a dictatorial tyranny? Does Beijing seek regional hegemony or peaceful coexistence with its neighbors? Will the PRC play by the established rules of the international organizations and regimes, or does Beijing seek to undermine and change the rules and institutions? Do China’s leaders understand the rules and

Coping with a Conflicted China

2009—2010 will be remembered as the years in which China became difficult for the world to deal with, as Beijing exhibited increasingly tough and truculent behavior toward many of its neighbors in Asia, as well as the United States and the European Union. Even its ties in Africa and Latin America became somewhat strained, adding to its declining global image since 2007. Beijing’s disturbing behavior has many observers wondering how long its new toughness will last. Is it a temporary or secular trend? If it is a longer-term and qualitative shift toward greater assertiveness and arrogance, how should other nations respond? What the world is witnessing in China’s new posture is in part the product of an ongoing intensive internal debate, and represents a current consensus among the more conservative and nationalist elements to toughen its policies and selectively throw China’s weight around. Although there seems to be domestic agreement at present, China remains a deeply conflicted rising power with a series of competing international identities. Many new voices and actors are now part of an unprecedentedly complex foreign-policymaking process. Consequently, China’s foreign policy often exhibits diverse and contradictory emphases. Understanding these competing identities is crucial to anticipating how Beijing’s increasingly contradictory and multidimensional behavior will play out on the world stage. Each orientation carries different policy implications for the United States and other nations.

Modernizing China's military : progress, problems, and prospects

List of Illustrations List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Preface and Acknowledgments A Note on Sources 1. Introduction 2. Civil-Military Relations 3. Doctrine and Training 4. Command, Control, and Force Structure 5. Budget and Finance 6. Defense Industries and Weapons Procurement 7. Threat Perceptions 8. Policy Implications for the United States Name Index Subject Index

China and the Korean peninsula: Playing for the long term

Halting North Koreas nuclear program is not the ultimate end that China hopes to achieve. Chinas calculations, interests, and goals are more long term and complicated, comprising a hierarchy of these six objectives.

China's Military Views the World: Ambivalent Security

International Security, Vol. 24, No. 3 (Winter 1999/2000), pp. 52–79

The modern Chinese state

Introduction: The evolving modern Chinese state David Shambaugh 1. The late imperial Chinese state H. Lyman Miller 2. The Chinese state during the Republican era Ramon H. Myers 3. The post-1949 state in the republic of China on Taiwan Bruce J. Dickson 4. The Maoist Chinese state Frederick Teiwes 5. The post-Mao Chinese state David Shambaugh 6. The Chinese Communist Economic State in Comparative Perspective Jan Pryblya 7. The Future of the Chinese State Harvey Nelsen.

The new strategic triangle: U.S. and European reactions to China's rise

Although they share similar views on many aspects of Chinas place in the international community, the U.S. and Europe differ over their perceptions of global order, Chinas rise, and the resources devoted to analyzing China. Greater dialogue and coordination among all three are overdue.

China's International Relations Think Tanks: Evolving Structure and Process

Over the past two decades Chinas international relations (IR) think tanks have come to play increasingly important roles in Chinas foreign policy making and intelligence analysis, as well as serving as an increasingly important liaison to officials and specialists in foreign countries. During this period Chinas IR think tanks have expanded in quantity as well as improving the quality of personnel and analytical product. Publications by, and discussions with, these think tanks often offer important indications of broader policy debates and competition among institutes and their staff. This article surveys the current organization and state of research in Chinas IR think tanks, offers historical perspectives on the evolution of this community, and provides current information of relevance to those who interact with these institutions and read their publications.