David Shipworth

Qualitative modelling of sustainable energy scenarios: an extension of the Bon qualitative input-output model

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing economic systems at the start of the 21st century. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require both restructuring the energy supply system (production) and addressing the efficiency and sufficiency of the social uses of energy (consumption). The energy production system is a complicated supply network of interlinked sectors with ‘knock‐on’ effects throughout the economy. End use energy consumption is governed by complex sets of interdependent cultural, social, psychological and economic variables driven by shifts in consumer preference and technological development trajectories. To date, few models have been developed for exploring alternative joint energy production–consumption systems. The aim of this work is to propose one such model. This is achieved in a methodologically coherent manner through integration of qualitative input–output models of production, with Bayesian belief network models of consumption, at point of final demand. The resulting integrated framework can be applied either (relatively) quickly and qualitatively to explore alternative energy scenarios, or as a fully developed quantitative model to derive or assess specific energy policy options. The qualitative applications are explored here.

Truth in complex adaptive systems models should be based on truth by constructive verification

It is argued that the truth status of emergent properties of complex adaptive systems models should be based on an epistemology of proof by constructive verification and therefore on the ontological axioms of a non-realist logical system such as constructivism or intuitionism. ‘Emergent’ properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS) models create particular epistemological and ontological challenges. These challenges bear directly on current debates in the philosophy of mathematics and in theoretical computer science. CAS research, with its emphasis on computer simulation, is heavily reliant on models which explore the entailments of Formal Axiomatic Systems (FAS). The incompleteness results of G¨odel, the incomputability results of Turing, and the Algorithmic Information Theory results of Chaitin, undermine a realist (platonic) truth model of emergent properties. These same findings support the hegemony of epistemology over ontology and point to alternative truth models such as intuitionism, constructivism and quasi-empiricism.

Eco-design: reflecting a nascent field

Introduction If art is a reflection of the society that creates it, then J. Birkeland’s Design for Sustainability: A Source Book of Integrated Eco-Logical Solutions can rightly be considered a work of art. In this context, the society of which it is a reflection is the anarchic and polycentric broad field of academic ‘eco-design’. This book’s strength and its weakness arises from this reflection of the nebulous collection of contradictory concepts and approaches that currently constitutes eco-design in particular, and what, for want of a better term, can be called ‘sustainable construction’ in general. Birkeland has, to her credit, drawn contributions from a broad cross-section of the Eco-Design field. This is no easy feat, given the fundamentally different epistemological positions that the contributing authors represent. Birkeland herself acknowledges this, noting that:

Book review: Sustainable development: Understanding the green debates

Political Islam is a very large subject, encompassing an array of organizations and thinkers. The sheer variety of political movements that might be described as Islamic in orientation makes careful discussion difficult. First, they cover over a broad spectrum in everything from their attitudes regarding everything from economic policy to the appropriate role of women in society. Second, one also must take into account the context of specific countries; such movements may have quite a different focus and impact in, say, Indonesia than they do in Libya, much less in somewhere like Britain or the United States, where Muslims are a relatively small minority. Moreover, different strains of political Islamic thought compete against each other within and across state boundaries for adherents. As the editor of the Routledge Handbook of Political Islam, Sharam Akbaradeh, a professor at Australia’s University of Melbourne, notes: “Political Islam is best understood as a dynamic social phenomenon—not a static ideology.”1 The difficulty of coming to precise and uncontroversial definitions in regard to political Islam is highlighted by the various inflections on the use of the term “Islamist” in the Routledge Handbook of Political Islam. Akbaradeh states that “[t]he Islamist vision of a perfect society is diametrically opposed to the model of democracy,” but also notes that “a discernible tend in Islamism has looked to utilizing democracy,” and that this may not invariably reflect an attempt to seize the levers of power with the intent of then dismantling democratic institutions.2 Moreover, in his essay “Modernity and Islamic Religious Consciousness,” Raja Bahlul thoughtfully describes a “liberal Islamism” which appears compatible on many points with Western visions of democracy.3 The ultimate problem, of course, is that a term such as “Islamist” casts such a wide net that it can catch everyone from totalitarian-minded Taliban warlords to democrats with a religiously grounded social vision but who have reservations about using the instruments of state to enforce personal virtue. No single volume possibly could address all of the many Islamic political parties and movements. Granted this limitation, however, the Routledge Handbook of Political Islam is very successful indeed in imparting to the reader a sense of the breadth and variety of Islamic political thought. The editor has assembled a capable team of writers with a wide range of academic knowledge, and most of the essays in the book both are intellectually satisfying and written in a clear style that is accessible to the nonspecialist. Moreover, unlike many works addressing political Islam and related subjects, the overall tone of the book is measured and scholarly. Some of the many intriguing chapters in include those by Eman Mohammad Alhussein, “Reforming the Religious Discourse in Saudi Arabia, 2001–10”; Robert W. Hefner, “Islamic Radicalism in a Democratizing Indonesia”; Beverly Milton-Edwards, “Perpetual Struggle: The Significance of the Arab-Israeli Conflict for