David T. Levy

Nondaily Smokers: Who Are They?

OBJECTIVEnWe sought to understand who constitutes the sizable population of nondaily, or some-day (SD), smokers.nnnMETHODSnWe analyzed descriptive statistics and regression results using the 1998-1999 Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplement to determine the prevalence of SD smokers, their sociodemographic characteristics, and the smoking patterns and histories of groups differentiated by the length and stability of their SD smoking.nnnRESULTSnSD smokers make up 19.2% of all current smokers. Among SD smokers, 44.6% have smoked less than daily for at least 1 year, no more than 14.4% are just starting to smoke, and the rest are likely in transition. Overall, SD smokers smoked a mean of 102 cigarettes per month (compared to 566.4 for daily smokers), on an average of 14.5 days out of the past 30.nnnCONCLUSIONSnSD smokers make up a substantial segment of the smoking population. They are not just beginning to smoke nor trying to quit. Many have developed a long-standing pattern of nondaily smoking, smoking relatively few cigarettes on the days when they do smoke. They are not substantially younger than daily smokers, as one might expect.

Uncovering the relation between betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking in Taiwan

Objective: To describe the characteristics of betel quid chewers and to investigate the behavioural and mortality relations between betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking. Method: Prevalence and mortality risks of betel quid chewers by smoking status were calculated, based on the National Health Interview Survey in 2001 and a community based cohort, respectively. Cox’s proportional hazards model was used to adjust mortality risks for age, alcohol use, and education. Results: Almost all betel quid chewers were smokers, and most started chewing after smoking. Chewers were predominantly male, mostly in their 30s and 40s, more likely being among the lowest educational or income group, and residing in the eastern regions of Taiwan. On average, betel quid chewers who smoked consumed 18 pieces of betel quid a day, and smoked more cigarettes per day. Far more smokers use betel quid than non-smokers (27.5% v 2.5%), but ex-smokers quit betel quid more than smokers (15.1% v 6.8%). The significantly increased mortality of betel quid users who also smoked, for all causes, all cancer, oral cancer, and cancer of the nasopharynx, lung, and liver, was the result of the combined effects of chewing and smoking. Smokers who chewed betel quid nearly tripled their oral cancer risks from a relative risk of 2.1 to 5.9. Increasing the number of cigarettes smoked among betel quid chewers was associated with a synergistic effect, reflective of the significant interaction between the two. Conclusion: To a large extent, the serious health consequences suffered by betel quid chewers were the result of the combined effects of smoking and chewing. Betel quid chewing should not be considered as an isolated issue, but should be viewed conjointly with cigarette smoking. Reducing cigarette smoking serves as an important first step in reducing betel quid chewing, and incorporating betel quid control into tobacco control may provide a new paradigm to attenuate the explosive increase in betel quid use in Taiwan.

Smoking behaviour in Taiwan, 2001

Purpose: To examine smoking behaviours in Taiwan and compare those behaviours to those in the USA. Methods: Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) of Taiwan (2001), a survey of over 20 000 participants, frequencies were calculated for smoking, ex-smoking, quantity smoked, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Breakdowns by age, sex, and socioeconomic status were also calculated. Results: The ratio of male to female smoking rates was 10.9 to 1 among adults (46.8%/4.3%), but 3.6 to 1 among underage teenagers (14.3%/4.0%). The proportion of underage to adult smokers was three times higher for girls than for boys. Smoking prevalence substantially increased during and after high school years, and peaked in those aged 30–39 years. Smoking rates of high school age adolescents increased more than threefold if they did not attend school or if they finished their education after high school. Low income and less educated smokers smoked at nearly twice the rate of high income and better educated smokers. The smoker/ex-smoker ratio was close to 7. Male daily smokers smoked on average 17 cigarettes/day, and females, 11. Half of the total population, especially infants and women of childbearing age, were exposed to ETS at home. Conclusions: Taiwan has particularly high male smoking prevalence and much lower female prevalence. The low female prevalence is likely to increase if the current sex ratio of smoking by underage youth continues. The low quit rate among males, the high ETS exposure of females and young children at home, and the sharp increase in smoking rates when students leave school, are of particular concern. These observations on smoking behaviour can provide valuable insights to assist policymakers and health educators in formulating strategies and allocating resources in tobacco control.

The Relationship of Smoking Cessation to Sociodemographic Characteristics, Smoking Intensity, and Tobacco Control Policies

The present study examined the relationship between recent smoking cessation activities and sociodemographic characteristics, smoking intensity, and tobacco control policies among daily smokers in the United States. The study used the U.S. Current Population Survey 1998-1999 Tobacco Use Supplement, supplemented with information on state-level tobacco control policies. The sample was limited to individuals aged 25 years or older who were smoking daily 1 year ago. We estimated frequencies and multivariate logistic equations for making a quit attempt and remaining abstinent at least 3 months. These measures were related to demographic characteristics, smoking intensity, and tobacco control policies. Younger, higher socioeconomic status (SES), and less intense (fewer cigarettes per day) daily smokers were more likely to make quit attempts, but the likelihood of remaining abstinent for those making a quit attempt was greater for older, higher SES, and heavy daily smokers. We found evidence that cessation behaviors were related to higher cigarette prices and the presence of state-level media/comprehensive campaigns, but less clear evidence exists for an association with bans restricting workplace smoking. The results indicate that certain types of smokers are more likely to attempt to quit and to have success and that the characteristics of these smokers differ. Price policies can have an important role in helping daily smokers to quit. Further research is needed regarding the role of quantity smoked.

The effect of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Findings from the Netherlands SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model.

AIMnTo develop a simulation model projecting the effect of tobacco control policies in the Netherlands on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.nnnDESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTSnNetherlands SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for the Netherlands to predict the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free legislation, mass media, advertising bans, health warnings, cessation treatment and youth access policies.nnnMEASUREMENTSnOutcome measures were smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths.nnnFINDINGSnWith a comprehensive set of policies, as recommended by MPOWER, smoking prevalence can be decreased by as much as 21% in the first year, increasing to a 35% reduction in the next 20 years and almost 40% by 30 years. By 2040, 7706 deaths can be averted in that year alone with the stronger set of policies. Without effective tobacco control policies, almost a million lives will be lost to tobacco-related diseases between 2011 and 2040. Of those, 145,000 can be saved with a comprehensive tobacco control package.nnnCONCLUSIONSnSmoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in the Netherlands can be reduced substantially through tax increases, smoke-free legislation, high-intensity media campaigns, stronger advertising bans and health warnings, comprehensive cessation treatment and youth access laws. The implementation of these FCTC/MPOWER recommended policies could be expected to show similar or even larger relative reductions in smoking prevalence in other countries which currently have weak policies.

Modeling the Future Effects of a Menthol Ban on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in the United States

We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633,252 overall and 237,317 for Blacks.

Exploring Scenarios to Dramatically Reduce Smoking Prevalence: A Simulation Model of the Three-Part Cessation Process

OBJECTIVESnWe used a simulation model to analyze whether the Healthy People 2010 goal of reducing smoking prevalence from the current 19.8% rate to 12% by 2010 could be accomplished by increasing quit attempts, increasing the use of treatments, or increasing the effectiveness of treatment.nnnMETHODSnWe expanded on previous versions of the tobacco control simulation model SimSmoke to assess the effects of an increase in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness to reduce smoking prevalence. In the model, we considered increases in each of these parameters individually and in combination.nnnRESULTSnIndividually, 100% increases in quit attempts, treatment use, and treatment effectiveness reduced the projected 2020 prevalence to 13.9%, 16.7%, and 15.9%, respectively. With a combined 100% increase in all components, the goal of a 12% adult smoking prevalence could be reached by 2012.nnnCONCLUSIONSnIf we are to come close to reaching Healthy People 2010 goals in the foreseeable future, we must not only induce quit attempts but also increase treatment use and effectiveness. Simulation models provide a useful tool for evaluating the potential to reach public health targets.

The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence and deaths: the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation Model

OBJECTIVESnTo compare tobacco control policies independently and as a package through a simulation model to project smoking prevalence and associated future premature mortality in Argentina beginning in 2001.nnnMETHODSnA simulation model of tobacco control policies known as SimSmoke was modified using data for Argentina on population, fertility and mortality, smoking prevalence, and tobacco control policies in effect between 2001 and 2004. We used the Argentina Tobacco Policy Simulation model (ATPSM) to consider the effect on smoking prevalence of changes in taxes and prices, clean air laws, media campaigns, cessation programs, and youth access policies on smoking initiation and cessation rates. Smoking prevalence and relative risks of smoking were used to estimate smoking-attributable mortality. The ATPSM was used to project smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths during the period 2001-2034.nnnRESULTSnThe largest reductions in smoking prevalence and premature mortality were predicted for a comprehensive tobacco control policy package, but relative reductions of as much as 30% were also predicted for large tax increases. Adding a media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans, and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates by up to 45% by the year 2034, and would save almost 16 000 lives per year.nnnCONCLUSIONSnTobacco control policies can substantially reduce smoking rates, which can save many lives. Without such policies, deaths from smoking, and associated medical costs, will increase. The ATPSM is expected to provide guidance in filling the most important information gaps pertinent to both modeling and policy-making in Argentina, e.g., the lack of data on initiation and cessation rates, and the need for studies on the impact of policies. Similar models might be developed for other Latin American countries.

The health benefits of smoking cessation for adult smokers and for pregnant women in Taiwan

Objective: To assess the benefits of smoking cessation regarding mortality reduction after smokers quit, and regarding the health of newborns after smoking mothers quit. Methods: Relative mortality risks (RR) for smokers aged 35 or older who quit years ago were calculated from the follow up of 71 361 civil servants and teachers recruited since 1989. Data from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System in Taipei City were used to calculate the odds ratios of body weights of newborns born to mothers of different smoking status. Results: Mortality risk for ex-smokers was significantly lower than that of current smokers for all causes (18%), all cancer (22%), lung cancer (39%), and ischaemic heart disease (54%). These benefits were not distinguishable initially, up to five years, but by year 17 and thereafter, substantial benefits of cessation accrued. Two thirds of smoking women quit during the first trimester of pregnancy, and only 2.2% of mothers smoked throughout pregnancy. The newborns from smoking mothers were smaller than those from never smoking mothers, but, if these mothers quit early in the first trimester, birth weights were normal. Conclusions: The health benefits of smoking cessation, rarely reported for Asian populations, have been largely ignored by smokers in Taiwan, where cessation activities have been extremely limited. Findings of this study that risks from smoking can be attenuated or reversed should be widely communicated to motivate smokers to quit. Smokers should quit early, including smoking mothers, and not wait till medical conditions surfaced, to have the maximal benefits of cessation.

Tobacco Control Policies and the Concurrent Use of Smokeless Tobacco and Cigarettes Among Men, 1992–2002

Accelerating the decline in smoking prevalence requires an understanding of changes in the concurrent use of and the substitution between different tobacco products, such as smokeless tobacco (SLT) and cigarettes. SLT could play an important role in reducing the toll of smoking-related illness and premature mortality. Research examining the role of tobacco control policies in explaining concurrent use of SLT and cigarettes has been minimal. Using the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements (CPS-TUS), we examined tobacco control policies in relationship with adult males SLT use concurrent with smoking over the period 1992-2002. Consistent with the decline in smokeless-only and cigarette-only rates, concurrent use of SLT and cigarettes declined during the period. SLT users, faced with home or workplace smoking bans, are less likely to report smoking. Smokers with a home ban appear more likely to use SLT, but in more recent years, smokers with a workplace ban are less likely to use SLT. Tobacco excise taxes do not signal substitution between cigarettes and SLT products. Understanding current use patterns of the range of tobacco products, including their interaction with available policy levers, is vital in assessing whether changes that might promote substitution of arguably less toxic SLT products for highly toxic cigarettes are likely to lead to net public health gains or losses. Findings of the present study, in concert with other research about transitional probabilities between behavioral states, will inform the design of an effective policy framework that supports the objective of reducing tobacco-related death and disease.