David Veenman

Decomposing executive stock option exercises: relative information and incentives to manage earnings

This paper examines the information content of stock option exercises versus regular insider share trades by corporate executives. We argue that the asymmetric payoff structure of options makes managerial wealth – compared to holdings of shares – relatively more sensitive to stock price changes and more likely induces opportunistic behaviour. Consistent with our predictions, we find option exercises followed by share liquidations are associated with disappointing future earnings news, while sales of previously held shares are not. In addition, liquidation exercises of deep in-the-money options are associated with larger income-increasing abnormal accruals, signalling lower quality earnings. On the buy side, we find that regular insider share purchases are associated with positive future earnings news while purchases through option conversions are not. This research has implications for investors, compensation committees, and future research on corporate insider trades.

Stale and scale effects in markets-based accounting research : evidence from the valuation of dividends

Abstract This study revisits prior research on the valuation of dividends in an accounting-based valuation framework. Using a battery of tests, we show that market value deflation is essential in market-based tests of dividend displacement and signalling because it controls for ‘stale’ information in addition to scale (size) differences across firms. For US firms, we show that after controlling for ‘stale’ information, the empirical association between dividends and market values switches from positive to negative. This switch is not explained by scale differences across firms. Further, we show that after controlling for staleness, the valuation of dividends remains positive for European firms. This result is explained by the relatively stronger association of dividends with future earnings in these settings (i.e. signalling). Lastly, our country-specific estimates of dividend valuation provide a potentially valuable index for studies aimed at examining the effects of accounting and securities regulation on information asymmetries in an international context.

Corporate Lobbying and CEO Pay

This study examines the agency costs of corporate lobbying by exploring the relation between lobbying and excess CEO compensation. We show that CEOs of firms engaged in lobbying earn significantly greater compensation levels compared to CEOs in non-lobbying firms, after controlling for standard economic determinants of pay. The relation between lobbying and CEO pay increases with the intensity of firms’ lobbying. Although lobbying is positively associated future sales growth, we find no evidence suggesting it culminates in shareholder wealth creation. Additional tests reveal that for a subset of firms with available data, governance attributes mediate the relation between lobbying and firms’ decision to lobby. Lastly, a difference-in-difference, propensity-score matched analysis suggests significant increases in CEO pay levels around firms’ initial lobbying engagements. Overall, we conclude that corporate lobbying introduces agency costs borne by shareholders.

Non‐GAAP Earnings Disclosure in Loss Firms

This study examines the incremental information in loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings disclosures relative to GAAP earnings. Using a large sample obtained through textual analysis and hand‐collection, we posit and find that loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings exclusions offset the low informativeness of GAAP losses for forecasting and valuation. Loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings are highly predictive of future performance and are valued by investors, while the expenses excluded from GAAP earnings are not. Additional tests suggest that loss firms disclosing non‐GAAP profits have significantly better future performance than GAAP‐only loss firms and are not overvalued by investors. Comparing non‐GAAP earnings of profitable firms to those of loss firms, we find that loss firms’ non‐GAAP metrics are significantly more predictive and less strategic. We conclude that non‐GAAP earnings disclosures are particularly informative about loss firms and help investors disaggregate losses into components that have differential implications for forecasting and valuation.

Earnings Expectations and the Dispersion Anomaly

This study presents evidence suggesting that investors do not fully unravel predictable pessimism in sell-side analysts’ earnings forecasts. We show that measures of prior consensus and individual analyst forecast pessimism are predictive of both the sign of firms’ earnings surprises and the stock returns around earnings announcements. That is, we find that firms with a relatively high probability of forecast pessimism experience significantly higher announcement returns than those with a low probability. Importantly, we show these findings are driven by predictable pessimism in analysts’ short-term forecasts as opposed to optimism in their longer-term forecasts. We further find that this mispricing is related to the difficulty investors have in identifying differences in expected forecast pessimism. Overall, we conclude that market prices do not fully reflect the conditional probability that a firm meets or beats earnings expectations as a result of analysts’ pessimistically biased short-term forecasts.