David Vera

The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on an Oil-exporting Economy

We estimate the effects of unexpected changes in oil prices on output for the case of Venezuela, an oil-exporting economy. Following Hamilton (2003), Lee et al. (1995), and Mork (1989), we estimate measures of oil shocks and determine the effect of these shocks on the Venezuelan economy. Our results suggest that oil shocks have had positive and significant effects on output growth in Venezuela during the period 1984:1—2008:3. In line with previous findings for other countries, our results suggest that the Venezuelan economy is more responsive to increases in oil prices than to unexpected decreases. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of oil price shocks derived by using Kilian’s (2009) exogenous OPEC oil production shock series.

How responsive are banks to monetary policy

I provide evidence that the response of commercial banks’ loans to monetary policy shocks in the US has changed. In particular, using bank data from the period 1959 to 2007, I show that the effect of monetary policy shocks on banks’ credit has significantly decreased over time. My results contrast significantly with previous finding in the literature (Bernanke and Blinder, 1992). As potential explanations to the lower effect of monetary shocks, I describe some of the changes in bank regulation that triggered bank consolidation and changes in the bank-size distribution, as well as changes in the banks’ portfolio towards an increasing share of real estate loans.

Tax Law Asymmetries and Income Shifting: Evidence from Japanese Capital Keiretsu

Abstract While the asymmetric treatment of positive and negative income creates clear tax incentives to shift income among a group of closely related corporations, attempts to document the impact of such behavior on economic outcomes are relatively sparse. We aim to provide evidence on tax-motivated transfers from a large dataset of Japanese corporate groups. Using company level data on 33,340 subsidiary time pairs from 1988, 1990, and 1992, we consider testable implications of income shifting in a theoretical model tailored to the Japanese institution of the early 1990s and empirically examine the spread of the profitability distribution, the attrition rate of loss-making subsidiaries, and the propensity to report zero profit. The findings suggest that income shifting was pervasive when Japan had not adopted a formal allowance for group-level tax. The result underscores the importance of accounting for the inter-relatedness of companies, in designing a corporate income tax.

How robust is the Fed reaction function to changes in the output-gap specification?

Using alternative measures of the output gap, we estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function, similar to those estimated by Clarida et al. (1998, 2000), for Greenspans period as a chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System. We are able to show that the reaction function that considers an output gap based on the industrial production index instead of the unemployment rate better captures the behaviour of the Federal Reserve during Greenspans period.

Banks Restructuring Sonata: How Capital Injection Triggered Labor Force Rejuvenation in Japanese Banks

Abstract Divergent interests of bank managers and financial regulators potentially compromise the efficacy of bank rescue operations. This study empirically investigates the agency problem encountered in a capital injection program implemented in Japan. We hypothesize that the operations requirement to reduce workforce lead banks to overstate the extent of downsizing by reassigning older workers to bank subsidiaries. We implement a difference-in-differences analysis using a panel of Japanese banks from 1990 to 2010. We also employ propensity score matching to control for sample selection bias. The result shows that injected banks exhibit workforce rejuvenation relative to non-injected banks. Among injected banks, the average employee age falls by approximately 1 year, which is equivalent to a reduction of approximately seventy 65-year-old workers. On an unconsolidated basis, the number of employees in injected banks decreases as a response to the injection. However, on a consolidated basis, which accounts for subsidiary employment, the number of employees does not decrease. Our finding suggests that the Japanese practice of lifetime employment (LTE) survived, albeit in a limited form, among restructured banks.

Are all financial crises created equal? Wholesale funding and two financial crises

We use financial information on banks from Asia, Europe, North America and Oceania to examine the role of wholesale funding on the transmission of financial crises to bank lending, as well as to study the response of financial institutions in different regions during the crises. We consider the role of wholesale funding during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). Our results suggest that during the GFC, wholesale funding dependence had a negative effect on loans growth across regions, but with substantial regional heterogeneity. The growth of loans from financial institutions in Asia and Europe was consistently sensitive to wholesale funding dependence. Although wholesale funding did not play a significant role in the transmission mechanism of the AFC, a subsample of financial institutions in Asia, who depended more heavily on wholesale funding, experienced a faster loan growth and may have been able to better withstand the crisis.