David W. Redding

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world’s most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

A guide to phylogenetic metrics for conservation, community ecology and macroecology

The use of phylogenies in ecology is increasingly common and has broadened our understanding of biological diversity. Ecological sub‐disciplines, particularly conservation, community ecology and macroecology, all recognize the value of evolutionary relationships but the resulting development of phylogenetic approaches has led to a proliferation of phylogenetic diversity metrics. The use of many metrics across the sub‐disciplines hampers potential meta‐analyses, syntheses, and generalizations of existing results. Further, there is no guide for selecting the appropriate metric for a given question, and different metrics are frequently used to address similar questions. To improve the choice, application, and interpretation of phylo‐diversity metrics, we organize existing metrics by expanding on a unifying framework for phylogenetic information.

Phylogenetically-informed priorities for amphibian conservation.

The amphibian decline and extinction crisis demands urgent action to prevent further large numbers of species extinctions. Lists of priority species for conservation, based on a combination of species’ threat status and unique contribution to phylogenetic diversity, are one tool for the direction and catalyzation of conservation action. We describe the construction of a near-complete species-level phylogeny of 5713 amphibian species, which we use to create a list of evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered species (EDGE list) for the entire class Amphibia. We present sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our priority list to uncertainty in species’ phylogenetic position and threat status. We find that both sources of uncertainty have only minor impacts on our ‘top 100‘ list of priority species, indicating the robustness of the approach. By contrast, our analyses suggest that a large number of Data Deficient species are likely to be high priorities for conservation action from the perspective of their contribution to the evolutionary history.

Evolutionary Distinctiveness, Threat Status, and Ecological Oddity in Primates

The EDGE (evolutionarily distinct and globally endangered) conservation program (http://www.edgeofexistence.org) uses a composite measure of threat and phylogenetic isolation to rank species for conservation attention. Using primates as a test case, we examined how species that rank highly with this metric represent the collective from which they are drawn. We considered the ecological and morphological traits, including body mass, diet, terrestriality, and home range size, of all 233 species of primates. Overall, EDGE score and the level of deviance from the mean of 20 different ecological, reproductive, and morphological variables were correlated (mean correlation r =0.14, combined p =1.7 x 10(-14)). Although primates with a high EDGE score had characteristics that made them seem odd, they did not seem to express more ancestral characteristics than expected. Sets of primate species with high EDGE scores will, therefore, collectively capture a broader than expected range of the biology of the clade. If similar patterns hold in other groups, the EDGE metric may be useful for prioritizing biodiversity for conservation.

Evolutionarily distinctive species often capture more phylogenetic diversity than expected

Evolutionary distinctiveness measures of how evolutionarily isolated a species is relative to other members of its clade. Recently, distinctiveness metrics that explicitly incorporate time have been proposed for conservation prioritization. However, we found that such measures differ qualitatively in how well they capture the total amount of evolution (termed phylogenetic diversity, or PD) represented by a set of species. We used simulation and simple graph theory to explore this relationship with reference to phylogenetic tree shape. Overall, the distinctiveness measures capture more PD on more unbalanced trees and on trees with many splits near the present. The rank order of performance was robust across tree shapes, with apportioning measures performing best and node-based measures performing worst. A sample of 50 ultrametric trees from the literature showed the same patterns. Taken together, this suggests that distinctiveness metrics may be a useful addition to other measures of value for conservation prioritization of species. The simplest measure, the age of a species, performed surprisingly well, suggesting that new measures that focus on tree shape near the tips may provide a transparent alternative to more complicated full-tree approaches.

What is macroecology

The symposium ‘What is Macroecology?’ was held in London on 20 June 2012. The event was the inaugural meeting of the Macroecology Special Interest Group of the British Ecological Society and was attended by nearly 100 scientists from 11 countries. The meeting reviewed the recent development of the macroecological agenda. The key themes that emerged were a shift towards more explicit modelling of ecological processes, a growing synthesis across systems and scales, and new opportunities to apply macroecological concepts in other research fields.

The global distribution and drivers of alien bird species richness

Alien species are a major component of human-induced environmental change. Variation in the numbers of alien species found in different areas is likely to depend on a combination of anthropogenic and environmental factors, with anthropogenic factors affecting the number of species introduced to new locations, and when, and environmental factors influencing how many species are able to persist there. However, global spatial and temporal variation in the drivers of alien introduction and species richness remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse an extensive new database of alien birds to explore what determines the global distribution of alien species richness for an entire taxonomic class. We demonstrate that the locations of origin and introduction of alien birds, and their identities, were initially driven largely by European (mainly British) colonialism. However, recent introductions are a wider phenomenon, involving more species and countries, and driven in part by increasing economic activity. We find that, globally, alien bird species richness is currently highest at midlatitudes and is strongly determined by anthropogenic effects, most notably the number of species introduced (i.e., “colonisation pressure”). Nevertheless, environmental drivers are also important, with native and alien species richness being strongly and consistently positively associated. Our results demonstrate that colonisation pressure is key to understanding alien species richness, show that areas of high native species richness are not resistant to colonisation by alien species at the global scale, and emphasise the likely ongoing threats to global environments from introductions of species.

Measuring Evolutionary Isolation for Conservation

Conservation planning needs to account for limited resources when choosing those species on which to focus attention and resources. Currently, funding is biased to small sections of the tree of life, such as raptors and carnivores. One new approach for increasing the diversity of species under consideration considers how many close relatives a species has in its evolutionary tree. At least eleven different ways to measure this characteristic on phylogenies for the purposes of setting species-specific priorities for conservation have been proposed. We find that there is much redundancy within the current set, with three pairs of metrics being essentially identical. Non-redundant metrics represent different trade-offs between the unique evolutionary history represented by a species verses its average distance to all other species. Depending on which metric is used, species priority lists can differ as much as 85% for the top 100 species. We call for some consensus on the theory behind these metrics and suggest that all future developments are compared to the current published set, and offer scripts to aid such comparisons.

Environmental‐mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever

1. Human infectious diseases are a significant threat to global human health and economies (e.g., Ebola, SARs), with the majority of infectious diseases having an animal source (zoonotic). Despite their importance, the lack of a quantitative predictive framework hampers our understanding of how spill-overs of zoonotic infectious diseases into the human population will be impacted by global environmental stressors. 2. Here, we create an environmental-mechanistic model for understanding the impact of global change on the probability of zoonotic disease reservoir host-human spill-over events. As a case study, we focus on Lassa fever virus (LAS). We firstly quantify the spatial determinants of LAS outbreaks, including the phylogeographic distribution of its reservoir host Natal multimammate rat (Mastomys natalensis) (LAS host). Secondly, we use these determinants to inform our environmental-mechanistic model to estimate present day LAS spill-over events and the predicted impact of climate change, human population growth, and land use by 2070. 3. We find phylogeographic evidence to suggest that LAS is confined to only one clade of LAS host (Western clade Mastomys natalensis), and that the probability of its occurrence was a major determinant of the spatial variation in LAS historical outbreaks (69.8%), along with human population density (20.4%). Our estimates for present day LAS spill-over events from our environmental-mechanistic model were consistent with observed patterns, and we predict an increase in events per year by 2070 from 195,125 to 406,725 within the LAS endemic western African region. Of the component drivers, climate change and human population growth are predicted to have the largest effects by increasing landscape suitability for the host and human-host contact rates, while land use change has only a weak impact on the number of future events. 4. LAS spill-over events did not respond uniformly to global environmental stressors, and we suggest that understanding the impact of global change on zoonotic infectious disease emergence requires an understanding of how reservoir host species respond to environmental change. Our environmental-mechanistic modelling methodology provides a novel generalizable framework to understand the impact of global change on the spill-over of zoonotic diseases.

Global evolutionary isolation measures can capture key local conservation species in Nearctic and Neotropical bird communities.

Understanding how to prioritize among the most deserving imperilled species has been a focus of biodiversity science for the past three decades. Though global metrics that integrate evolutionary history and likelihood of loss have been successfully implemented, conservation is typically carried out at sub-global scales on communities of species rather than among members of complete taxonomic assemblages. Whether and how global measures map to a local scale has received little scrutiny. At a local scale, conservation-relevant assemblages of species are likely to be made up of relatively few species spread across a large phylogenetic tree, and as a consequence there are potentially relatively large amounts of evolutionary history at stake. We ask to what extent global metrics of evolutionary history are useful for conservation priority setting at the community level by evaluating the extent to which three global measures of evolutionary isolation (evolutionary distinctiveness (ED), average pairwise distance (APD) and the pendant edge or unique phylogenetic diversity (PD) contribution) capture community-level phylogenetic and trait diversity for a large sample of Neotropical and Nearctic bird communities. We find that prioritizing the most ED species globally safeguards more than twice the total PD of local communities on average, but that this does not translate into increased local trait diversity. By contrast, global APD is strongly related to the APD of those same species at the community level, and prioritizing these species also safeguards local PD and trait diversity. The next step for biologists is to understand the variation in the concordance of global and local level scores and what this means for conservation priorities: we need more directed research on the use of different measures of evolutionary isolation to determine which might best capture desirable aspects of biodiversity.