David W. Stevens

Job Flows, Worker Flows, and Churning

We utilize a large employer‐level panel dataset to explore the links between gross job flows and gross worker flows. Our findings have relevance for models of job creation and job destruction, and labor reallocation. We find churning flows (the difference between worker and job flows at the level of the employer) to be high, pervasive, and highly persistent within employers, suggesting that they arise as a correlate of an equilibrium personnel policy. We find the dynamic relationship between job and worker flows to be quite complex: lagged job flows raise churning flows, and lagged churning flows reduce employment growth.

Churning dynamics: an analysis of hires and separations at the employer level

Abstract This paper provides evidence on job flows and worker flows at the level of the employer. We ask whether firms grow by increasing hires, reducing separations, or both, and we develop a graphical approach to address this. We use a new dataset to estimate the relationship between job flows and worker flows at the employer level. We show that most employers are simultaneously hiring and facing separations. We also show that declining firms continue to hire, and growing firms continue to lose workers. The relationship between hires and separations differs between employers, varying with size, average wage and industry.

Worker and job flows

Abstract This paper uses a unique matched panel of firms and workers to describe worker and job flows. It finds a great deal of variation in both worker and job flows by sector: it also finds that job flows are not synonymous with worker flows. Contracting firms continue to hire workers; expanding firms have workers who exit. Older and larger firms have systematically lower rates of job creation and destruction, as well as of worker separations.

Firm heterogeneity and worker turnover

Previous empirical analyses of job mobility focus on worker rather than firm characteristics. This paper exploits a unique data set on enterprise employment. We describe sectoral differences in turnover rates and in the persistence of turnover. We also present evidence of persistent turnover differences at the level of the individual firms—a result that is expected if firms have managers with differing ability to screen workers. When we consider the consequences to the firm of such turnover, we discover that high turnover firms are less likely to survive.

Welfare-to-Work Outcomes: The Role of the Employer

This paper sets out to explore the role of the employer in successful welfare-to-work transitions. We demonstrate the uses of administrative records in identifying the types of firms that repeatedly hire welfare recipients. We also develop sets of criteria to identify “successful” outcomes. Our results suggest that there is substantial untapped potential for using administrative data to identify not simply which industries hire welfare recipients but those that are most likely to provide recipients with long-lasting jobs, or jobs accompanied by sustained removal from welfare dependency.

The Asking Wage-Duration of Unemployment Relation Revisited

The purpose of this paper is to specify and estimate a model of the short-run asking wage behavior of unemployed individuals. The level of the asking wage is presumed to affect the probability of reemployment, and therefore the duration of unemployment. Duration is expected to influence the level of the asking wage through economic and social pressures. Therefore, a two-equation model is presented in which both the level of the asking wage and duration of unemployment are endogenous. The first section provides a brief reference to papers in which others have discussed the asking wage-duration (hereafter AW-D) relation. The simultaneous equation system is introduced in a second section. After a brief description in section three of the source of data, we compare the single equation and simultaneous equation estimates of the AW-D relation.

The measurement and interpretation of employment displacement

These facets of worker displacement are investigated – definition, detection and consequence. A definition of displacement is sought that permits the identification of those who are truly at risk of adverse consequences because of this event. The detection goal is to indentify data elements in available administrative data sources that can be used for this purpose. A consolidated database is used that represents three states in the US and seven industry sectors, which includes seven years of quarterly employer/industry affliation and earnings pairings. Estimated earnings losses are shown to be sensitive to the definition of displacement that is adopted. Available data elements do not support the reliable prediction of adverse consequences associated with displacement relative to earnings discontinuities that accompany other causal definitations of unemployment.

Integrated Data System Person Identification: Accuracy Requirements and Methods

This report responds to a Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI) challenge — the unreported quality of person identification (PI) features in many integrated data systems (IDS) that link confidential workforce, education and social services administrative records.The importance of the PI topic reflects concern that many local K-12 education agencies do not collect student Social Security Numbers. Some conclude from this widespread omission that linkage of secondary student records with workforce data may be impossible. However, others have adopted ad hoc and commercial software solutions to bridge this gap. To date no standard record linkage method has been endorsed.Will performance dashboards and research findings based on IDS information be accepted as trustworthy by individuals making important appropriation of funds, policy and program-level resource allocation decisions? Should IDS public-use releases be believed and acted upon?A standard technical language is used in professional communication about PI topics. Record linkage can be pursued using exact matching or statistical matching. Within the exact matching portfolio are deterministic and probabilistic methods. And within the deterministic portfolio are direct and hierarchical methods.A familiar first step among WDQI award teams is application of exact matching when two or more administrative data files each contains a SSN field. This first step is also the last step in some record linkage actions, which introduces selection bias threats, singly or in various combinations. Confirmation that a SSN has been issued, and is therefore valid, does not mean that the valid nine-digit SSN was issued to the person associated with this SSN in one or more administrative data files.We completed a series of three record linkage steps: (1) determine what candidate identifiers are available in each administrative data set; (2) use Link Plus software to carry out multiple deterministic and probabilistic PI diagnostics; and (3) examine the potential matched pairs identified in step two, assigning each pair to one of three categories — match, non-match, or uncertain match. Our intent has been to illustrate typical PI accuracy challenges that are found in administrative data files. These challenges occur over time within a single administrative data source and among different administrative data files.Our diagnostic findings are not amenable to summary coverage. Sections 5 and 6 describe what steps we undertook and what we found. Given our diagnostic findings to date: So what? If left unresolved, can a PI of unreported and perhaps unknown quality translate into unacceptable deficiencies in information, conclusions and recommendations that are released to stakeholders making important decisions about appropriation of funds, policies and program-level priorities?PI accuracy is a necessary first step for successful integration of multiple administrative data sources. This is a universal requirement that applies to any and all attempts to link unit-record person specific administrative data sources.Avoidance of stakeholder skepticism — rejection at worst — is within our collective control, but we need to take positive steps now to retain this control. Lost confidence is difficult to recover. We need to be out in front of this potential threat to realization of the return on past, current and future IDS investments.We are not aware of an ongoing serious and sustained professional conversation about the criteria that are appropriate to define PI accuracy tolerances for specific applications. This conversation is needed because the community of practitioners does not know whether we are over- or under-investing in PI technologies and applications.We encourage the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration WDQI leadership team to propose an appropriate forum — perhaps through the technical assistance resources of Social Policy Research Associates — to ensure immediate attention to the PI accuracy topic.