Davide Ascoli

Forest disturbances under climate change

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Developing an Adaptive Management approach to prescribed burning: a long-term heathland conservation experiment in north-west Italy

Calluna vulgaris-dominated heathlands are globally important habitats and extremely scarce outside of north- west Europe. Rotational fire, grazing and cutting by local farmers were dominant features of past heathland management throughout Europe but have been abandoned, altering the historical fire regime and habitat structure. We briefly review research on Calluna heathland conservation management and provide the background and methodology for a long-term research project that will be used to define prescribed fire regimes in combination with grazing and cutting, for management of Calluna heathlands in north-west Italy. We outline the ecological and research issues that drive the fire experiment, making explicit the experimental design and the hypotheses that will be tested. We demonstrate how Adaptive Management can be used to inform decisions about the nature of fire prescriptions where little formal knowledge exists. Experimental plots ranging from 600 to 2500 m 2 are treated according to one of eight alternative treatments (various combinations of fire, grazing and cutting), each replicated four times. To date, all treatments have been applied for 4 years, from 2005 to 2008, and a continuation is planned. Detailed measurement of fire characteristics is made to help interpret ecological responses at a microplot scale. The results of the experiment will be fed back into the experimental design and used to inform heathland management practice in north-west Italy.

The role of fire in UK peatland and moorland management: the need for informed, unbiased debate

Fire has been used for centuries to generate and manage some of the UKs cultural landscapes. Despite its complex role in the ecology of UK peatlands and moorlands, there has been a trend of simplifying the narrative around burning to present it as an only ecologically damaging practice. That fire modifies peatland characteristics at a range of scales is clearly understood. Whether these changes are perceived as positive or negative depends upon how trade-offs are made between ecosystem services and the spatial and temporal scales of concern. Here we explore the complex interactions and trade-offs in peatland fire management, evaluating the benefits and costs of managed fire as they are currently understood. We highlight the need for (i) distinguishing between the impacts of fires occurring with differing severity and frequency, and (ii) improved characterization of ecosystem health that incorporates the response and recovery of peatlands to fire. We also explore how recent research has been contextualized within both scientific publications and the wider media and how this can influence non-specialist perceptions. We emphasize the need for an informed, unbiased debate on fire as an ecological management tool that is separated from other aspects of moorland management and from political and economic opinions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’.

Inter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction

Climate teleconnections drive highly variable and synchronous seed production (masting) over large scales. Disentangling the effect of high-frequency (inter-annual variation) from low-frequency (decadal trends) components of climate oscillations will improve our understanding of masting as an ecosystem process. Using century-long observations on masting (the MASTREE database) and data on the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we show that in the last 60 years both high-frequency summer and spring NAO, and low-frequency winter NAO components are highly correlated to continent-wide masting in European beech and Norway spruce. Relationships are weaker (non-stationary) in the early twentieth century. This finding improves our understanding on how climate variation affects large-scale synchronization of tree masting. Moreover, it supports the connection between proximate and ultimate causes of masting: indeed, large-scale features of atmospheric circulation coherently drive cues and resources for masting, as well as its evolutionary drivers, such as pollination efficiency, abundance of seed dispersers, and natural disturbance regimes.Climate oscillations affect weather on different temporal-spatial scales, which poses difficulty in understanding how they influence tree reproduction. Here Ascoli et al. show relationships between low- and high-frequency components of the NAO and masting in two European tree species across multiple decades.

Fire severity, residuals and soil legacies affect regeneration of Scots pine in the Southern Alps

Regeneration of non fire-adapted conifers following crown fires on the European Alps is often delayed or unsuccessful. Fire may limit establishment by eliminating seed trees, altering soil properties, or modifying microsite and soil conditions via disturbance legacies. However, the effect of soil legacies on post-fire establishment has rarely been discussed. We analyzed the abundance of Scots pine regeneration in a 257 ha wildfire in an inner-alpine forest. Our aims were (1) to model fire intensity at the soil surface and topsoil heating along a gradient of increasing fire severities; (2) to assess the differences in soil properties along the fire severity gradient; (3) to model the effect of disturbance and soil legacies on the density of pine seedlings. We reconstructed fire behavior and soil heating with the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), tested the effect of fire severity on soils by nonparametric distributional tests, and modeled seedling density as a function of site, disturbance and soil legacies by fitting a GLM following a variable selection procedure. Topsoil heating differed markedly between the moderate and high severity fires, reaching temperatures high enough to strongly and permanently alter soil properties only in the latter. High fire severity resulted in decreased soil consistency and wet aggregate stability. Burned soils had lower organic matter and cations than those unburned. Pine seedlings favored low-fertility, eroded, and chemically poor sites. Establishment was facilitated by the presence of coarse woody debris, but hampered by increasing distance from the seed source. These results suggest that in dry, inner-alpine valleys, fire residuals and soil legacies interact in determining the success of Scots pine re-establishment. High severity fire can promote favorable soil conditions, but distance from the seed source and high evaporation rates of bare soils must be mitigated in order to ensure a successful restoration.

Effects of prescribed burning on ecophysiological, anatomical and stem hydraulic properties in Pinus pinea L.

Prescribed burning (PB) is a widespread management technique for wildfire hazard abatement. Understanding PB effects on tree ecophysiology is key to defining burn prescriptions aimed at reducing fire hazard in Mediterranean pine plantations, such as Pinus pinea L. stands. We assessed physiological responses of adult P. pinea trees to PB using a combination of dendroecological, anatomical, hydraulic and isotopic analyses. Tree-ring widths, xylem cell wall thickness, lumen area, hydraulic diameter and tree-ring δ(13)C and δ(18)O were measured in trees on burned and control sites. Vulnerability curves were elaborated to assess tree hydraulic efficiency or safety. Despite the relatively intense thermal treatment (the residence time of temperatures above 50 °C at the stem surface ranged between 242 and 2239 s), burned trees did not suffer mechanical damage to stems, nor significant reduction in radial growth. Moreover, the PB did not affect xylem structure and tree hydraulics. No variations in (13)C-derived water use efficiency were recorded. This confirmed the high resistance of P. pinea to surface fire at the stem base. However, burned trees showed consistently lower δ(18)O values in the PB year, as a likely consequence of reduced competition for water and nutrients due to the understory burning, which increased both photosynthetic activity and stomatal conductance. Our multi-approach analysis offers new perspectives on post-fire survival strategies of P. pinea in an environment where fires are predicted to increase in frequency and severity during the 21st century.

Faster prediction of wildfire behaviour by physical models through application of proper orthogonal decomposition

Physical models of wildfires are of particular interest in fire behaviour research and have applications in firefighting, rescue and evacuation. However, physical models present a challenge as a result of the large computational resources they often require, especially for the analysis of large areas or when multiple scenarios are investigated. The objective of this paper is to explore the opportunity to reduce the computation time requested by physical wildfire models through application of a model order reduction technique, specifically the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique. POD is here applied to a simple one-dimensional physical model. The full physical model for illustration of the concept is first tested with experimental data to check its ability to simulate wildfire behaviour; it is then reduced using the POD technique. It is shown that the reduced model is able to simulate fire propagation with only small deviations in results in comparison with the physical model (~6.4% deviation in the rate of spread, ROS) and a drastic reduction (~85%) in computational cost. The results demonstrate the advantages of applying effective reduction techniques to create new generations of fire models based on reduced physical approaches. The potential applicability of POD to more complex models is also discussed.

COMPORTAMENTO DEL FUOCO E GESTIONE DELLA BIOMASSA NEI VIALI TAGLIA FUOCO: VALUTAZIONE SPERIMENTALE DEL CARICO DI COMBUSTIBILE COMPATIBILE CON L'ATTACCO DIRETTO ( 1 )

Per mantenere nel tempo l’efficacia di un viale taglia fuoco (VTF) e necessario realizzare una periodica manutenzione attraverso il contenimento della biomassa. Il materiale di risulta della gestione del VTF, generalmente concentrato in bosco, puo essere destinato a finalita energetiche. La stima della biomassa ottenibile prevede inizialmente di definire la quantita di combustibile compatibile con le funzioni del VTF. Nel presente lavoro viene descritta una metodologia sperimentale per definire il carico di combustibile compatibile con l’attacco diretto nel VTF, attraverso la realizzazione e la descrizione quantitativa di fronti di fiamma sperimentali realizzati all’interno della Riserva Naturale Orientata della Vauda, Piemonte, in specifiche condizioni vegetazionali, orografiche e meteorologiche. Si e individuato su base bibliografica il valore limite di intensita lineare del fronte di fiamma (I) di 500 kW/m oltre il quale non e possibile operare l’attacco diretto. Attraverso la realizzazione di fronti di fiamma sperimentali su superfici variabili (625 - 4000 m 2 ) e stato studiato un modello che mostra come la velocita di avanzamento del fuoco (ROS) aumenti in modo esponenziale al crescere del carico di combustibile fine. Sono stati individuati valori limite di ROS e carico di combustibile, con umidita percentuale compresa fra 30% e 40%, rispettivamente pari a 0,08 m/s (5 m/min) e 4 t/ha, oltre ai quali non e possibile intervenire con l’attacco diretto. Dalla differenza fra la biomassa presente su un VTF in fase di realizzazione o manutenzione ed il carico di combustibile massimo compatibile con le attivita antincendio (4 t/ha con 30%

Building Rothermel fire behaviour fuel models by genetic algorithm optimisation

A method to build and calibrate custom fuel models was developed by linking genetic algorithms (GA) to the Rothermel fire spread model. GA randomly generates solutions of fuel model parameters to form an initial population. Solutions are validated against observations of fire rate of spread via a goodness-of-fit metric. The population is selected for its best members, crossed over and mutated within a range of model parameter values, until a satisfactory fitness is reached. We showed that GA improved the performance of the Rothermel model in three published custom fuel models for litter, grass and shrub fuels (root mean square error decreased by 39, 19 and 26%). We applied GA to calibrate a mixed grass–shrub fuel model, using fuel and fire behaviour data from fire experiments in dry heathlands of Southern Europe. The new model had significantly lower prediction error against a validation dataset than either standard or custom fuel models built using average values of inventoried fuels, and predictions of the Fuel Characteristics Classification System. GA proved a useful tool to calibrate fuel models and improve Rothermel model predictions. GA allows exploration of a continuous space of fuel parameters, making fuel model calibration computational effective and easily reproducible, and does not require fuel sampling. We suggest GA as a viable method to calibrate custom fuel models in fire modelling systems based on the Rothermel model.

Resilience of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) forests to wildfires in the western Alps

European larch is a dominant species in the subalpine belt of the western Alps. Despite recent increases in wildfire activity in this region, fire ecology of European larch is poorly understood compared to other larch species around the world. This study aims to assess whether European larch forests are resilient to fires, and to find out the factors that drive such resilience. We assessed the recovery of larch forests along a gradient of fire severity (low, moderate, high) based on the abundance and dominance of post-fire larch regeneration. We established 200 plots distributed among burned larch forests in nine wildfires that occurred between 1973 and 2007 in the western Alps. We included variables regarding topography, climate, fire severity, fire legacies, ground cover, grazing intensity, and time since fire. To evaluate potential drivers of larch recruitment, we applied generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and random forests (RF). Larch regeneration was much more abundant and dominant in the moderate- and high-severity fire classes than in the low-severity class. More than half of the plots in the moderate- and high-severity classes were classified as resilient, i.e., post-fire larch regeneration was enough to recover a larch stand. GLMM and RF produced complementary results: fire severity and legacies, such as snags, canopy cover and distance to seed source, were crucial factors explaining post-fire larch recruitment. This study shows that fire has a positive effect on larch regeneration, and we conclude that European larch forests are highly resilient to mixed-severity fires in the western Alps.