Davide Luciano De Luca

Process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins by conditioning model parameters on regional hydrological signatures

The use of rainfall–runoff models constitutes an alternative to statistical approaches (such as at-site or regional flood frequency analysis) for design flood estimation and represents an answer to the increasing need for synthetic design hydrographs associated with a specific return period. Nevertheless, the lack of streamflow observations and the consequent high uncertainty associated with parameters estimation usually pose serious limitations to the use of process-based approaches in ungauged catchments, which in contrast represent the majority in practical applications. This work presents a Bayesian procedure that, for a predefined rainfall–runoff model, allows for the assessment of posterior parameters distribution, using limited and uncertain information available about the response of ungauged catchments, i.e. the regionalized first three L-moments of annual streamflow maxima. The methodology is tested for a catchment located in southern Italy and used within a Monte Carlo scheme to obtain design flood values and simulation uncertainty bands through both event-based and continuous simulation approaches. The obtained results highlight the relevant reduction in uncertainty bands associated with simulated peak discharges compared to those obtained considering a prior uniform distribution for model parameters. A direct impact of uncertainty in regional estimates of hydrological signatures on posterior parameters distribution is also evident. For the selected case study, continuous simulation, generally, better matches the estimates of the statistical flood frequency analysis.

Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy

AbstractThe spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the...Abstract The spatial and temporal variability of the scaling properties and correlation structure of a data set of rainfall time series, aggregated over different temporal resolutions, and observed in 70 raingauges across the Basilicata and Calabria regions of southern Italy, is investigated. Two types of random cascade model, namely canonical and microcanonical models, were used for each raingauge and selected season. For both models, different hypotheses concerning dependency of parameters on time scale and rainfall height can be adopted. In particular, a new approach is proposed which consists of several combinations of models with a different scale dependence of parameters for different temporal resolutions. The goal is to improve the modelling of the main features of rainfall time series, especially for cases where the variability of rainfall changes irregularly with temporal aggregation. The results obtained with the new methodology showed good agreement with the observed data, in particular, for the summer months. In fact, during this season, rainfall heights aggregated at fine temporal resolutions (from 5 to 20 min) are more similar (relative to the winter season) to the values cumulated on 1 or 3 h (due to convective phenomena) and, consequently, the process of rainfall breakdown is nearly stationary for a range of finer temporal resolutions. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Montanari Citation De Luca, D., 2014. Analysis and modelling of rainfall fields at different resolutions in southern Italy. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (8), 1536–1558. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.926013

A comprehensive framework for empirical modeling of landslides induced by rainfall: the Generalized FLaIR Model (GFM)

In this paper, a new version of the hydrological model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall) is described, and it is indicated as GFM (Generalized FLaIR Model). Nonstationary rainfall thresholds, depending on antecedent precipitation, are introduced in this new release, which allows for a better prediction of landslide occurrences. Authors demonstrate that GFM is able to reproduce all the antecedent precipitation models (AP) proposed in technical literature as particular cases, besides intensity-duration schemes (ID) and more conceptual approaches, like Leaky Barrel, whose reconstruction with the first release of FlaIR model, which adopts only stationary thresholds, was already discussed in technical literature. Authors applied GFM for two case studies: 1) Gimigliano municipality, which is located in Calabria region (southern Italy) and where a consistent number of landslides occurred in the past years; in particular, during the period 2008–2010, this area (like the whole Calabria region) was affected by persistent rainfall events, which severely damaged infrastructures and buildings; 2) Barcelonnette Basin, which is located in the dry intra-Alpine zone (South French Alps). The high flexibility of GFM allows to obtain significant improvements in landslide prediction; in details, a substantial reduction of false alarms is obtained with respect to application of classical ID and AP schemes.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Rainfall Thresholds for Landslide Forecasting

Open image in new window In this paper, authors focus attention on different threshold schemes, which can be adopted when a model is used for landslide forecasting. In some cases they represent the occurrence probability of a landslide, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned mobility function Y (a function of rainfall heights), indicated as Y cr , and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of Y cr or its prefixed percentages. Clearly, the discussion here reported can be easily extended to the case of flood forecasting models. The empirical model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall, Capparelli and Versace 2011) is used for the study area of Gimigliano municipality (located in Calabria region, southern Italy), characterized by a database with 27 historical landslide events in the period 1940–2011.

TXT-tool 2.039-4.1: FLaIR Model (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls)

Mathematical models for landslide forecasting constitute an important component for Early Warning Systems. This teaching tool focuses on the empirical model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfalls), developed at Laboratory of Environmental Carthography and Hydraulic and Geological Modelling (CAMILab) of University of Calabria (Italy). FLaIR is a general framework for many empirical models proposed in technical literature: in particular, it reproduces as particular cases all the ID (Intensity-Duration) schemes (Capparelli and Versace 2011). From the website www.camilab.unical.it it is possible to download the software FLaIR.exe, together with a user guide.

TXT-tool 2.039-4.2 LEWIS Project: An Integrated System for Landslides Early Warning

In the framework of the National Operational Programme 2007-13 “Research and Competitiveness”, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund, the Ministry of Research (MIUR) financed the project “AN INTEGRATED SYSTEMS FOR HYDROGEOLOGICAL RISK MONITORING, EARLY WARNING AND MITIGATION ALONG THE MAIN LIFELINES” with the acronym LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System). The project aims to develop an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated with infrastructure, on landslide-prone slopes by developing and testing a system able to identify potentially dangerous landslides in a timely manner, and to activate all needed measures for impact mitigation, including information delivery. The system includes many components: standard criteria for evaluation and mapping landslides susceptibility: monitoring equipment for measuring the onset of landslide movement; telecommunication networks; mathematical models for both triggering and propagation of landslides induced by rainfall; models for risk scenario forecasting; a centre for data acquisition and processing; and a traffic control centre.

Stima operativa delle piogge estreme sul territorio nazionale: nuovi metodi e possibili sinergie

PIETRO; Passadore, Giulia; Garbin, Silvia; B., Matticchio; F., Visentin; I., Brunet; R., Lago; F., Facco; Botter, Gianluca; Carniello, Luca. ELETTRONICO. (2016), pp. 1119-1122. ((Intervento presentato al convegno Convegno Nazionale di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche tenutosi a Bologna nel Settembre 2016. Original Citation: Un sistema modellistico integrato per la previsione in tempo reale delle piene del Muson dei Sassi (Pd)La XXXV edizione del Convegno Nazionale di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche (IDRA16), co-organizzata dal Gruppo Italiano di Idraulica (GII) e dal Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Chimica, Ambientale, e dei Materiali (DICAM) dell’Alma Mater Studiorum - Universita di Bologna, si e svolta a Bologna dal 14 al 16 settembre 2016. Il Convegno Nazionale e tornato pertanto ad affacciarsi all’ombra del “Nettuno”, dopo l’edizione del 1982 (XVIII edizione). Il titolo della XXXV edizione, “Ambiente, Risorse, Energia: le sfide dell’Ingegneria delle acque in un mondo che cambia”, sottolinea l’importanza e la complessita delle tematiche che rivestono la sfera dello studio e del governo delle risorse idriche. Le sempre piu profonde interconnessioni tra risorse idriche, sviluppo economico e benessere sociale, infatti, spronano sia l’Accademia che l’intera comunita tecnico-scientifica nazionale ed internazionale all’identificazione ed alla messa in atto di strategie di gestione innovative ed ottimali: sfide percepite quanto mai necessarie in un contesto ambientale in continua evoluzione, come quello in cui viviamo. La XXXV edizione del Convegno di Idraulica e Costruzioni Idrauliche, pertanto, si e posta come punto d’incontro della comunita tecnico-scientifica italiana per la discussione a tutto tondo di tali problematiche, offrendo un programma scientifico particolarmente ricco e articolato, che ha coperto tutti gli ambiti riconducibili all’Ingegneria delle Acque. L’apertura dei lavori del Convegno si e svolta nella storica cornice della Chiesa di Santa Cristina, uno dei luoghi piu caratteristici e belli della citta ed oggi luogo privilegiato per l’ascolto della musica classica, mentre le attivita di presentazione e discussione scientifica si sono svolte principalmente presso la sede della Scuola di Ingegneria e Architettura dell’Universita di Bologna sita in Via Terracini. Il presente volume digitale ad accesso libero (licenza Creative Commons 4.0) raccoglie le memorie brevi pervenute al Comitato Scientifico di IDRA16 ed accettate per la presentazione al convegno a valle di un processo di revisione tra pari. Il volume articola dette memorie in sette macro-tematiche, che costituiscono i capitoli del volume stesso: I. meccanica dei fluidi; II. ambiente marittimo e costiero; III. criteri, metodi e modelli per l’analisi dei processi idrologici e la gestione delle acque; IV. gestione e tutela dei corpi idrici e degli ecosistemi; V. valutazione e mitigazione del rischio idrologico e idraulico; VI. dinamiche acqua-societa: sviluppo sostenibile e gestione del territorio; VII. monitoraggio, open-data e software libero. Ciascuna macro-tematica raggruppa piu sessioni specialistiche autonome sviluppatesi in parallelo durante le giornate del Convegno, i cui titoli vengono richiamati all’interno del presente volume. La vastita e la diversita delle tematiche affrontate, che ben rappresentano la complessita delle numerose sfide dell’Ingegneria delle Acque, appaiono evidenti dalla consultazione dell’insieme di memorie brevi presentate. La convinta partecipazione della Comunita Scientifica Italiana e dimostrata dalle oltre 350 memorie brevi, distribuite in maniera pressoche uniforme tra le sette macro-tematiche di riferimento. Dette memorie sono sommari estesi di lunghezza variabile redatti in lingua italiana, o inglese. In particolare, la possibilita di stesura in inglese e stata concessa con l’auspicio di portare la visibilita del lavoro presentato ad un livello sovranazionale, grazie alla pubblicazione open access del volume degli Atti del Convegno. Il volume si divide in tre parti: la parte iniziale e dedicata alla presentazione del volume ed all’indice generale dei contributi divisi per macro-tematiche; la parte centrale raccoglie le memorie brevi; la terza parte riporta l’indice analitico degli Autori, che chiude il volume.

Performance of I-D Thresholds and FLaIR Model for Recent Landslide Events in Calabria Region (Southern Italy)

During the period 2008–2010 heavy and persistent rainfall events induced thousands of shallow landslides and hundreds of deep-seated landslides in Calabria Region (Southern Italy), with more than 2,000 crisis points and damages related to about 94 % of the municipalities. These events are comparable, or even worse, with those occurred in the 50’s and in the early 70’s. In this context, the performance of mathematical models, which are used for the Early Warning System of Calabria Region, is evaluated. In details, Intensity–Duration (I–D) thresholds for several temporal aggregations (hourly and multi daily) of rainfall heights and the hydrological model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall, Sirangelo and Versace 1996) are considered. Moreover, the use of a regional approach for these models was also tested, which is particularly useful when it is necessary to predict the triggering of landslide movements in vast areas where there are concerns not only about the reactivation of pre-existing movements, but also activation of new movements whose exact location is unforeseeable and for which there is no available past information. The obtained results highlight a good model performance, in particular for FLaIR, which can be considered as a general case of I–D rainfall thresholds (Capparelli et al. 2009) and it is characterized by a more flexibility, as it takes into account the real pattern of rainfall heights along the time, and not average values of temporal intensity.