Davide Zoccatelli

Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape). Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response

Abstract The concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km2-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km2 to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore Citation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889

Hydrometeorological characterization of a flash flood associated with major geomorphic effects: Assessment of peak discharge uncertainties and analysis of the runoff response

AbstractPostflood indirect peak flow estimates provide key information to advance understanding of flash flood hydrometeorological processes, particularly when peak observations are combined with flood simulations from a hydrological model. However, indirect peak flow estimates are affected by significant uncertainties, which are magnified when floods are associated with important geomorphic processes. The main objective of this work is to advance the integrated use of indirect peak flood estimates and hydrological model simulations by developing and testing a procedure for the assessment of the geomorphic impacts–related uncertainties. The methodology is applied to the analysis of an extreme flash flood that occurred on the Magra River system in Italy on 25 October 2011. The event produced major geomorphic effects and peak discharges close to the maxima observed for high-magnitude rainstorm events in Europe at basin scales ranging from 30 to 1000 km2. Results show that the intensity of geomorphic impacts...

Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds

The systematic underestimation observed in debris flows early warning thresholds has been associated to the use of sparse rain gauge networks to represent highly non-stationary rainfall fields. Remote sensing products permit concurrent estimates of debris flow-triggering rainfall for areas poorly covered by rain gauges, but the impact of using coarse spatial resolutions to represent such rainfall fields is still to be assessed. This study uses fine resolution radar data for ∼100 debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps to (i) quantify the effect of spatial aggregation (1–20-km grid size) on the estimation of 5 debris flow triggering rainfall and on the identification of early warning thresholds and (ii) compare thresholds derived from aggregated estimates and rain gauge networks of different densities. The impact of spatial aggregation is influenced by the spatial organization of rainfall and by its dependence on the severity of the triggering rainfall. Thresholds from aggregated estimates show up to 8%–21% variations in the parameters whereas more than 10%–25% systematic variations result from the use of rain gauge networks, even for densities as high as 1/10 km−2. 10

7.9 Analysis of Flash-Flood Runoff Response, with Examples from Major European Events

Flash floods are typically associated with short, high-intensity rainstorms. As such, they are characterized by short response time and have the potential to severely impact and damage communities in different climatic settings all over the world. Despite their scientific and social importance, the fundamental processes triggering a flash-flood response are poorly understood. This contribution aims to provide a review of the hydrological mechanisms driving hillslope runoff response to intense rainfall and to characterize runoff response from selected extreme flash floods in Europe. The first part of the chapter provides general concepts regarding the hydrological mechanisms controlling catchment and hillslope runoff response to intense precipitation. Furthermore, we present an overview of scientific investigations carried out in different hydro-climatic settings to characterize the runoff-generation processes occurring under intense rain rates. In the second part of the chapter, we provide an analysis of the runoff properties of a number of extreme flash floods that occurred in Europe since 1994. More specifically, we examine the climatic settings of the flash floods considered, analyzing the distribution of event runoff coefficients and assessing the role of antecedent saturation conditions in controlling the magnitude of extreme flash floods.

TOPMELT 1.0: A topography-based distribution function approachto snowmelt simulation for hydrological modelling at basin scale

Enhanced temperature-index distributed models for snowpack simulation, incorporating air temperature and a term for clear sky potential solar radiation, are increasingly used to simulate the spatial variability of the snow water equivalent. This paper presents a new snowpack model (termed TOPMELT) which integrates an enhanced temperature-index model into the ICHYMOD semidistributed basin-scale hydrological model by exploiting a statistical representation of the distribution of clear sky potential solar radiation. This is obtained by discretizing the full spatial distribution of clear sky potential solar radiation into a number of radiation classes. The computation required to generate a spatially distributed water equivalent reduces to a single calculation for each radiation class. This turns into a potentially significant advantage when parameter sensitivity and uncertainty estimation procedures are carried out. The radiation index may be also averaged in time over given time periods. Thus, the model resembles a classical temperatureindex model when only one radiation class for each elevation band and a temporal aggregation of 1 year is used, whereas it approximates a fully distributed model by increasing the number of the radiation classes and decreasing the temporal aggregation. TOPMELT is integrated within the semidistributed ICHYMOD model and is applied at an hourly time step over the Aurino Basin (also known as the Ahr River) at San Giorgio (San Giorgio Aurino), a 614 km2 catchment in the Upper Adige River basin (eastern Alps, Italy) to examine the sensitivity of the snowpack and runoff model results to the spatial and temporal aggregation of the radiation fluxes. It is shown that the spatial simulation of the snow water equivalent is strongly affected by the aggregation scales. However, limited degradation of the snow simulations is achieved when using 10 radiation classes and 4 weeks as spatial and temporal aggregation scales respectively. Results highlight that the effects of space–time aggregation of the solar radiation patterns on the runoff response are scale dependent. They are minimal at the scale of the whole Aurino Basin, while considerable impact is seen at a basin scale of 5 km2.