Debasis Sengupta

Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment.

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

A link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and multidecadal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is unraveled and a long sought physical mechanism linking Atlantic climate and monsoon has been identified. The AMO produces persistent weakening (strengthening) of the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature (TT) by setting up negative (positive) TT anomaly over Eurasia during northern late summer/autumn resulting in early (late) withdrawal of the south west monsoon and persistent decrease (increase) of seasonal monsoon rainfall. On inter-annual time scales, strong North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or North Annular mode (NAM) influences the monsoon by producing similar TT anomaly over Eurasia. The AMO achieves the interdecadal modulation of the monsoon by modulating the frequency of occurrence of strong NAO/NAM events. This mechanism also provides a basis for explaining the observed teleconnection between North Atlantic temperature and the Asian monsoon in paleoclimatic proxies. Citation: Goswami, B. N., M. S. Madhusoodanan, C. P. Neema, and D. Sengupta (2006), A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

Coherent Intraseasonal Oscillations of Ocean and Atmosphere during the Asian Summer Monsoon

The space-time evolution of the ocean and atmosphere associated with 1998-2000 monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific is studied using validated sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind speed from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager, and satellite outgoing longwave radiation. Monsoon ISO consist of alternating episodes of active and suppressed atmospheric convection moving northward in the eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Negative/positive SST anomalies generated by fluctuations of net heat flux at the ocean surface move northward following regions of active/suppressed convection. Such coherent evolution of SST, surface heat flux and convection suggests that air-sea interaction might be important in monsoon ISO.

BOBMEX: The Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment

The first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme, called the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX), was carried out during July-August 1999. BOBMEX was aimed at measurements of important variables of the atmosphere, ocean, and their interface to gain deeper insight into some of the processes that govern the variability of organized convection over the bay. Simultaneous time series observations were carried out in the northern and southern Bay of Bengal from ships and moored buoys. About 80 scientists from 15 different institutions in India collaborated during BOBMEX to make observations in most-hostile conditions of the raging monsoon. In this paper, the objectives and the design of BOBMEX are described and some initial results presented. During the BOBMEX field phase there were several active spells of convection over the bay, separated by weak spells. Observation with high-resolution radiosondes, launched for the first time over the northern bay, showed that the magnitudes of the convective available potential energy (CA-PE) and the convective inhibition energy were comparable to those for the atmosphere over the west Pacific warm pool. CAPE decreased by 2-3 kJ kg(-1) following convection, and recovered in a time period of 1-2 days. The surface wind speed was generally higher than 8 m. s(-1). The thermohaline structure as well as its time evolution during the BOBMEX field phase were found to be different in the northern bay than in the southern bay. Over both the regions, the SST decreased during rain events and increased in cloud-free conditions. Over the season as a whole, the upper-layer salinity decreased for the north bay and increased for the south bay. The variation in SST during 1999 was found to be of smaller amplitude than in 1998. Further analysis of the surface fluxes and currents is expected to give insight into the nature of coupling.

Oscillations of Bay of Bengal sea surface temperature during the 1998 Summer Monsoon

New measurements from moored buoys in the Bay of Bengal, along with satellite cloud data, reveal strong monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) during the summer of 1998. The active phase of the monsoon is marked by high surface wind and deep atmospheric convection. The buoy data show that sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal warm pool rises and falls with periods of weeks. These intraseasonal oscillations of SST are not adequately captured in a satellite derived weekly SST analysis. They are a direct response to ISO of net surface heat flux into the ocean, which is negative in the active phase of the monsoon and positive in the quiescent phase. Fresh water from rivers and rain appears to control northern Bay of Bengal SST in late summer by allowing sunlight to escape below a shallow mixed layer.

Surface freshwater from Bay of Bengal runoff and Indonesian Throughflow in the tropical Indian Ocean

According to recent estimates, the annual total continental runoff into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is about 2950 km 3, which is more than half that into the entire tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Here we use climatological observations to trace the seasonal pathways of near surface freshwater from BoB runoff and Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) by removing the net contribution from precipitation minus evaporation. North of 20 degrees S, the amount of freshwater from BoB runoff and ITF changes with season in a manner consistent with surface currents from drifters. BoB runoff reaches remote regions of the Arabian Sea; it also crosses the equator in the east to join the ITF. This freshwater subsequently flows west across the southern tropical IO in the South Equatorial Current.

Origin of intraseasonal variability of circulation in the tropical central Indian Ocean

Observed upper ocean currents south of Sri Lanka exhibit large, irregular fluctuations with periods of days to weeks. An ocean model driven by daily surface winds is able to reproduce the observed fluctuations. We find from model experiments that low frequency (30-50 day) intraseasonal variability (ISV) arises when Rossby waves radiated from the eastern boundary are amplified by hydrodynamic instability in the eastern and central Indian Ocean. High frequency (10-15 day) ISV is forced directly by ISV of the wind field in the eastern Indian Ocean. In spite of the contribution from instability, the ocean circulation south of Sri Lanka is a deterministic response to wind forcing.

Intraseasonal Variability of Equatorial Indian Ocean Zonal Currents

New satellite and in situ observations show large intraseasonal (10–60 day) variability of surface winds and upper-ocean current in the equatorial Indian Ocean, particularly in the east. An ocean model forced by the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind stress is used to study the dynamics of the intraseasonal zonal current. The model has realistic upper-ocean currents and thermocline depth variabilities on intraseasonal to interannual scales. The quality of the simulation is directly attributed to the accuracy of the wind forcing. At the equator, moderate westerly winds are punctuated by strong 10–40-day westerly wind bursts. The wind bursts force swift, intraseasonal (20–50 day) eastward equatorial jets in spring, summer, and fall. The zonal momentum balance is between local acceleration, stress, and pressure, while nonlinearity deepens and strengthens the eastward current. The westward pressure force associated with the thermocline deepening toward the east rapidly arrests eastward jets and, subsequently, generates (weak) westward flow. Thus, in accord with direct observations in the east, the spring jet is a single intraseasonal event, there are intraseasonal jets in summer, and the fall jet is long lived but strongly modulated on an intraseasonal scale. The zonal pressure force is almost always westward in the upper 120 m, and changes sign twice a year in the 120–200-m layer. Transient eastward equatorial undercurrents in early spring and late summer are associated with semiannual Rossby waves generated at the eastern boundary following thermocline deepening by the spring and fall jets. An easterly wind stress is not necessary to generate the undercurrents. Experiments with a single westerly wind burst forcing show that apart from the intraseasonal response, the zonal pressure force and current in the east have an intrinsic 90-day time scale that arises purely from equatorial adjustment.

A note on the deficiency of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean

The seasonal cycle and intraseasonal variability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP) reanalysis surface winds over the Indian Ocean (IO) are assessed by comparing them with in situ surface observations from two moored buoys and winds from the SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT satellite. The buoys are located in the central Bay of Bengal and eastern Arabian Sea. Both QuikSCAT and NCEP wind products reproduce closely the seasonal cycle and intraseasonal variability (10–60 day) in the in situ observations. In the equatorial IO, however, the seasonal mean NCEP wind speeds can be

Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in daily data from gauge and satellite

2-3 ms^{-1}