Deborah Potts

Counter-urbanisation on the Zambian Copperbelt? Interpretations and Implications

For the past 20 years, the population of Zambia has been gradually ruralising, or de-urbanising. For a country which was once seen as emblematic of the process of African urbanisation, and was very often cited (erroneously) as being among the first in sub-Saharan Africa to have reached the stage where over half the population was urban, this is a dramatic shift. This paper has both an empirical and theoretical element. Empirically, it seeks to demonstrate the scale and pattern of the shift within Zambia through careful examination of census data which, although occasionally problematic, are generally sufficiently accurate to provide a basis for analysis. It is shown that counter-urbanisation is mainly characteristic of Copperbelt Province, but that other urban centres have also experienced a marked downturn in their growth rates. Changes in fertility and mortality rates have played a part, but the most important factor is shown to be shifts in migration patterns, with many centres clearly experiencing net out-migration, including that of some urban-born people, as a response to urban economic decline. These dynamics are also discussed theoretically in relation to longstanding debates in African urban studies about the implications of urbanisation and migration dynamics, which date back to the early days of the famous Rhodes-Livingstone Institute which was based in colonial Zambia.

The urban informal sector in sub-Saharan Africa: from bad to good (and back again?)

Conceptualisations of the informal sector in terms of economic dualism have a long history, as have effective challenges to those conceptualisations. These are discussed in this paper, which then examines shifts in attitudes towards the role of the urban informal sector in sub-Saharan Africa over recent decades, with reference to these theoretical conceptualisations and other approaches. The paper then discusses the dynamics of the sector and the changing role of the African state in promoting or discouraging it and identifies an increasingly negative trend in this respect. Finally, the paper offers a comparative perspective, from north of the Limpopo, on current debates and policy pronouncements about the ‘second economy’ in South Africa.

Urban Growth and Urban Economies in Eastern and Southern Africa: Trends and Prospects

Urban settlements in Southern and Eastern Africa have experienced major changes in the processes that influence their nature and their role in national development since the 1960s, when independence came to many of the countries in the region. At the most basic level these changes reflect trends in economic development so that the economic declines, which have afflicted so many of the region’s nations since the end of the 1970s, have been translated into worse urban poverty and inadequate (or virtually non-existent) urban services. Beyond this basic backdrop, however, there are other important factors that have influenced urban trends. These are often more nuanced in their impact, with some significant degree of differentiation across the region.

Capital Relocation in Africa: The Case of Lilongwe in Malawi

Several developing countries have initiated relocation programmes over the past 30 years. Certain common issues can be shown to have contributed to these decisions: the peripheral location of the capital; its colonial connotations; and the need to spread regional development, allay regional or ethnic jealousies, and provide a focus for national pride. An examination of the transferral of Malawis capital shows how these issues affected the decision to move from Zomba to Lilongwe. The development of Lilongwe as the new capital is facing many problems in the fields of finance, planning, population growth, service and housing provision, and employment. Moreover, Lilongwes limited ability to provide a real counter-attraction to the major urban centre of Blantyre has been partly due to a lack of strong government commitment to enforcing appropriate policies.

Geography in a changing South Africa : progress and prospects

Geography in the 1990s is a dynamic and diverse discipline. South Africa offers a particularly rich and fascinating subject for research because of its unique blend of First and Third Worlds and the challenges presented by political change. The nineteen contributors to this volume debate geographical issues which are at the cutting edge of contemporary local, and international research on South Africa. Environmental degradation, urban and rural planning, transport, the future role of women, and popular culture are among the broad range of topics covered. A full listing of current research into these topics is provided at the end of the book to facilitate further enquiry.

Market institutions and urban food supply in West and Southern Africa a review

As the urban share of Africas population increases, the importance of understanding how food supply is shaped by market institutions has grown. However, this topic has received little attention from policy makers and researchers despite the implications of market institutions and regulatory systems for livelihoods and poverty. This paper reviews the existing literature on market intermediaries, access to selling spaces, finance for traders and sources of information on prices and supplies. The gaps in research are identified and a set of key research issues in this crucial, yet under-researched, area are articulated.

Urban economies, urban livelihoods and natural resource-based economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: The constraints of a liberalized world economy:

There is much speculation today about how rapid economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa is transforming development prospects in the region. However, in terms of a broad, multi-dimensional, understanding of the term ‘development’, into which social justice must be factored, there are real concerns about whether the undoubted improvements in GDP growth in many countries are strongly connected to urban-located investment and job growth. Many African countries remain poorly placed, in terms of global comparative advantage, to attract significant foreign investment except in primary sectors. The extreme inequality in the ways in which the benefits of current growth are being shared in many countries is another huge problem for the creation of urban employment growth. This article relates these issues to evidence about levels of economic (in)security in many African cities, and to how these have been reflected in a slowing in the rate of urbanization in many countries. It also reviews the evidence about the distribution of incomes in sub-Saharan Africa, and argues that the development of middle classes with their associated higher consumption patterns is minimal as yet. Finally it reflects on the links between internal economic stimuli from, for example, natural-resource based activities including mining and agriculture, and African urban economic development and growth.

Urbanization in Africa

Urbanization in Africa has become somewhat differentiated from the processes experienced elsewhere, particularly in Asian countries. Global market forces caused some deindustrialization in sub-Saharan Africa and urban economies weakened in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Urban incomes declined in real terms, presenting major challenges to policy makers. In a range of countries, the rate of growth in levels of urbanization slowed as net in-migration rates fell as urban economic opportunities became less attractive. GDP growth rates have since strengthened largely due to natural resource-based developments. The impact of these on urbanization is very variable between and within countries.

Shanties, slums, breeze blocks and bricks

In 2005, the Zimbabwean government demolished huge swathes of low-income housing throughout the countrys urban centres. This was one of the most radical reshapings of any countrys urban housing patterns in the worlds recent history. Yet any attempt to understand this event in relation to the current central concerns about the housing of the urban poor of agencies like UN Habitat, or the worlds Millennium Development Goals, would only be partially helpful. So broadly are the parameters of what are deemed to be ‘slums’ drawn in such approaches that it has become difficult to evaluate where interventions should start and which policies might be most effective for improving living standards. The previous distinctions between housing types and problems for which housing specialists had argued—for example, that not all illegal housing types are slums—have slipped away. This paper argues that such distinctions proved to be crucial when analysing the demolitions in Zimbabwe, which centred on the legality of housing and not its inadequacy.

Urban data and definitions in sub-Saharan Africa: Mismatches between the pace of urbanisation and employment and livelihood change:

Differing definitions of ‘urban’ settlements can make comparative analysis of trends in urbanisation difficult. Definitions used by many African countries include small settlements which may not exhibit the degree of labour specialisation away from agriculture that economic theories about urbanisation presume. This may mean there is a mismatch if urban data are presumed by decision-makers to be proxies for structural economic transformation. After examining these definitional issues this paper provides five illustrative African case studies based on detailed analysis of census and agricultural employment data. It finds that for Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Mali in situ urbanisation of settlements at the bottom of the urban hierarchy has played a significant part in recent urbanisation processes. In Rwanda complex boundary changes have also contributed to a very significant redefinition of previously rural people as ‘urban’ yet overall the urbanisation level did not increase between 2002 and 2012. Significant employment in agriculture is found within small, and some larger, urban centres in all these countries. It is shown that these issues tend to be disregarded in analyses of urban trends for these countries which often present a more positive narrative of urban economic change than the census data support. These examples are contrasted with Botswana, where in situ urbanisation has also occurred but in this case driven by real occupational change. The paper concludes that the impact of definitions on apparent trends in urbanisation in Africa needs to be understood given the significance attached to these trends by policy makers.