Deepak K. Ray

Solutions for a cultivated planet

Increasing population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agriculture and natural resources. Today, approximately a billion people are chronically malnourished while our agricultural systems are concurrently degrading land, water, biodiversity and climate on a global scale. To meet the world’s future food security and sustainability needs, food production must grow substantially while, at the same time, agriculture’s environmental footprint must shrink dramatically. Here we analyse solutions to this dilemma, showing that tremendous progress could be made by halting agricultural expansion, closing ‘yield gaps’ on underperforming lands, increasing cropping efficiency, shifting diets and reducing waste. Together, these strategies could double food production while greatly reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.

Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management

In the coming decades, a crucial challenge for humanity will be meeting future food demands without undermining further the integrity of the Earth’s environmental systems. Agricultural systems are already major forces of global environmental degradation, but population growth and increasing consumption of calorie- and meat-intensive diets are expected to roughly double human food demand by 2050 (ref. 3). Responding to these pressures, there is increasing focus on ‘sustainable intensification’ as a means to increase yields on underperforming landscapes while simultaneously decreasing the environmental impacts of agricultural systems. However, it is unclear what such efforts might entail for the future of global agricultural landscapes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of intensification prospects from closing ‘yield gaps’ (differences between observed yields and those attainable in a given region), the spatial patterns of agricultural management practices and yield limitation, and the management changes that may be necessary to achieve increased yields. We find that global yield variability is heavily controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation and climate. Large production increases (45% to 70% for most crops) are possible from closing yield gaps to 100% of attainable yields, and the changes to management practices that are needed to close yield gaps vary considerably by region and current intensity. Furthermore, we find that there are large opportunities to reduce the environmental impact of agriculture by eliminating nutrient overuse, while still allowing an approximately 30% increase in production of major cereals (maize, wheat and rice). Meeting the food security and sustainability challenges of the coming decades is possible, but will require considerable changes in nutrient and water management.

Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050.

Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using ∼2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for ∼13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4% per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by ∼67%, ∼42%, ∼38%, and ∼55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation

In the coming decades, continued population growth, rising meat and dairy consumption and expanding biofuel use will dramatically increase the pressure on global agriculture. Even as we face these future burdens, there have been scattered reports of yield stagnation in the worlds major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat. Here we study data from ∼2.5 million census observations across the globe extending over the period 1961-2008. We examined the trends in crop yields for four key global crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans. Although yields continue to increase in many areas, we find that across 24-39% of maize-, rice-, wheat- and soybean-growing areas, yields either never improve, stagnate or collapse. This result underscores the challenge of meeting increasing global agricultural demands. New investments in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.

Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability

Many studies have examined the role of mean climate change in agriculture, but an understanding of the influence of inter-annual climate variations on crop yields in different regions remains elusive. We use detailed crop statistics time series for ~13,500 political units to examine how recent climate variability led to variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean crop yields worldwide. While some areas show no significant influence of climate variability, in substantial areas of the global breadbaskets, >60% of the yield variability can be explained by climate variability. Globally, climate variability accounts for roughly a third (~32–39%) of the observed yield variability. Our study uniquely illustrates spatial patterns in the relationship between climate variability and crop yield variability, highlighting where variations in temperature, precipitation or their interaction explain yield variability. We discuss key drivers for the observed variations to target further research and policy interventions geared towards buffering future crop production from climate variability.

Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment

How to optimize global food production Keeping societies stable and managing Earths resources sustainably depend on doing a good, steady job producing and distributing food. West et al. asked what combinations of crops and regions offer the best chance of progress. Their analysis focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, nutrient pollution, water use, and food waste. They identify regions that are likely to yield the best balance between applying fertilizer to increase crop yields versus the resulting environmental impact. Science, this issue p. 325 A limited set of interventions could disproportionately improve crop production and environmental sustainability. Achieving sustainable global food security is one of humanity’s contemporary challenges. Here we present an analysis identifying key “global leverage points” that offer the best opportunities to improve both global food security and environmental sustainability. We find that a relatively small set of places and actions could provide enough new calories to meet the basic needs for more than 3 billion people, address many environmental impacts with global consequences, and focus food waste reduction on the commodities with the greatest impact on food security. These leverage points in the global food system can help guide how nongovernmental organizations, foundations, governments, citizens’ groups, and businesses prioritize actions.

Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation.

Effects of land use in Southwest Australia: 1. Observations of cumulus cloudiness and energy fluxes

The Southwest Australian region has large homogeneous tracts of differing vegetation types separated by a sharp transition called the vermin or bunny fence which runs for almost 750 km. Seasonal winter agriculture is found to the west of the fence, whereas to the east native perennial vegetation grows. Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 imagery are used to construct monthly cumulus cloud frequency of occurrence maps for the region 0800 to 1500 LT in hourly increments for 1999 and 2000. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery are used to retrieve regional values of surface temperature, albedo, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, fractional soil moisture availability, sensible and latent heat fluxes. High spatial resolution Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery are used to retrieve detailed values along the fence. MODIS imagery also is utilized to retrieve cloud optical thickness, droplet sizes, and liquid water paths. This study shows that higher soil moisture availability is found over agricultural areas during winter (September) and over native vegetation areas during summer (December). Latent heat fluxes are higher over native vegetation than over agricultural areas during summer, while sensible heat fluxes are lower. Cumulus clouds occur with higher frequency and have higher optical thicknesses, cloud liquid water contents, and effective radii over agricultural areas during the winter and over native perennial vegetation during the dry summer. This is due to higher latent heat fluxes and available energy over agriculture during winter and over native vegetation during summer. We conclude that land use differences result in differences in available soil moisture and surface energy fluxes, which in turn lead to the observed preferential enhancement of cumulus cloudiness and cumulus cloud properties.

A backcast land use change model to generate past land use maps: application and validation at the Muskegon River watershed of Michigan, USA

We developed a GIS and neural network-based land use/land cover change model for backcasting land use change and applied it to the Muskegon River watershed, a typical upper midwestern watershed in the USA. We developed 12 variants of the model, based on different structural assumptions, to simulate urban, forest, agriculture, and shrubland transitions. We compared the model variants against 12,598 land use interpreted locations from 235 aerial photographs acquired from the study region between the late 1930s through to the early 1970s. The model variants produced around 41–70% accuracy (integrating both omission and commission errors) in simulating the spatial locations of the dominant land use category, forests and agriculture, and lower accuracy for the shrub and urban land use categories. We describe the assumptions made in developing the model and discuss the implications of the assumptions to model goodness-of-fit analysis and to forecasting land use. The Windows executable version of the model and data sets are available for download from http://ltm.agriculture.purdue.edu/default_back.htm.

Observational estimates of radiative forcing due to land use change in southwest Australia

[1] Radiative forcing associated with land use change is largely derived from global circulation models (GCM), and the accuracy of these estimates depends on the robustness of the vegetation characterization used in the GCMs. In this study, we use observations from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on board the Terra satellite to report top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing values associated with clearing of native vegetation for agricultural purposes in southwest Australia. Over agricultural areas, observations show consistently higher shortwave fluxes at the TOA compared to native vegetation, especially during the time period between harvest and planting. Estimates using CERES observations show that over a specific area originally covered by native vegetation, replacement of half the area by croplands results in a diurnally averaged shortwave radiative forcing of approximately � 7Wm � 2 . GCM-derived estimates for areas with 30% or more croplands range from � 1t o � 2Wm � 2 compared to observational estimate of � 4.2 W m � 2 , thus significantly underestimating radiative forcing due to land use change by a factor of 2 or more. Two potential reasons for this underestimation are incorrect specification of the multiyear land use change scenario and the inaccurate prescription of seasonal cycles of crops in GCMs.