Dejan Dragan

Tourism sector, Travel agencies, and Transport Suppliers: Comparison of Different Estimators in the Structural Equation Modeling

Abstract The paper addresses the effect of external integration (EI) with transport suppliers on the efficiency of travel agencies in the tourism sector supply chains. The main aim is the comparison of different estimation methods used in the structural equation modeling (SEM), applied to discover possible relationships between EIs and efficiencies. The latter are calculated by the means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). While designing the structural equation model, the exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses are also used as preliminary statistical procedures. For the estimation of parameters of SEM model, three different methods are explained, analyzed and compared: maximum likelihood (ML) method, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (BMCMC) method, and unweighted least squares (ULS) method. The study reveals that all estimation methods calculate comparable estimated parameters. The results also give an evidence of good model fit performance. Besides, the research confirms that the amplified external integration with transport providers leads to increased efficiency of travel agencies, which might be a very interesting finding for the operational management.

Relationships between the motorcyclists’ behavioural perception and their actual behaviour

AbstractThe paper deals with studying the relationships between the motorcyclists’ thinking about proper behaviour and their actual behaviour in the traffic. The impact of some control variables, such as riders’ age, experience, driving history, and engine cubature, on actual behaviour, is also addressed here. For the purpose of research, two additional questionnaires were applied besides the well-known Motorcycle Rider Behaviour Questionnaire (MRBQ). To examine the causal relations between all-important latent factors present in this study, the structural equation model was designed. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were also engaged in the analysis and the statistical modelling process. The results show that the higher awareness about alcohol danger and benefits of protective equipment and helmet can noticeably contribute to the bigger traffic safety. Besides, from the results is evident that the control variables are in most cases also significantly interrelated with the actual behaviour fa...

Synergies between an Observed Port and a Logistic Company: Application of the Discounted Cash–Flow Model and the Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port’s business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies’ values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies′ decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation.

Integration of Travel Agencies with other Supply Chain Members: Impact on Efficiency

Abstract The performance of tourism supply chains depends on the efficiency of all members involved, including the travel agencies. The paper addresses the analysis of relationships between the agencies’ external integration with other supply chain members on one side, and the efficiency of the agencies on the other. The data envelopment analysis is applied for the estimation of efficiencies, while the structural equation modelling (SEM) is conducted for identification of possible integration impacts on the efficiency. Results show that integration with other supply chain members indeed has some positive impacts on the agencies’ efficiency. Also, the developed SEM model implies that in-depth forms of collaboration would enable more effective exploitation of the identified relations between the integration and efficiency of the agencies. This finding could be an important guideline for the agencies’ management in the sense of achieving more satisfied customers and bigger profits, as well as reduced operational costs.