Dennis Engi

Modeling the infrastructure dynamics of China -- Water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gases

A comprehensive critical infrastructure analysis of the People`s Republic of China was performed to address questions about China`s ability to meet its long-term grain requirements and energy needs and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in China likely to result from increased agricultural production and energy use. Four dynamic computer simulation models of China`s infrastructures--water, agriculture, energy and greenhouse gas--were developed to simulate, respectively, the hydrologic budgetary processes, grain production and consumption, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in China through 2025. The four models were integrated into a state-of-the-art comprehensive critical infrastructure model for all of China. This integrated model simulates diverse flows of commodities, such as water and greenhouse gas, between the separate models to capture the overall dynamics of the integrated system. The model was used to generate projections of China`s available water resources and expected water use for 10 river drainage regions representing 100% of China`s mean annual runoff and comprising 37 major river basins. These projections were used to develop estimates of the water surpluses and/or deficits in the three end-use sectors--urban, industrial, and agricultural--through the year 2025. Projections of the all-China demand for the three major grains (corn, wheat, and rice), meat, and other (other grains and fruits and vegetables) were also generated. Each geographic region`s share of the all-China grain demand (allocated on the basis of each region`s share of historic grain production) was calculated in order to assess the land and water resources in each region required to meet that demand. Growth in energy use in six historically significant sectors and growth in greenhouse gas loading were projected for all of China.

A spherical-stochastic methodology for microseismic event location

Abstract The potential economic value of determining the geometry of hydraulic fractures for reservoir engineering is well established. Borehole seismic systems utilizing the polarization method of analysis have been employed successfully in numerous hydraulic fracture mapping experiments. The sensor for the borehole seismic system is a four-axis tool with four or seven geophones per axis that sense the magnitudes of the rectilinear components of seismic signals. From these data, the direction of incidence and distance of the seismic source to the sensor can be determined. This paper describes the methods for analyzing this angular data and for combining the data from more than one tool into a single estimate of the location of the origin of the seismic signal. Results from applying this methodology to the determination of fracture azimuth also are presented.

Modeling, simulation & optimization of the landing craft air cushion fleet readiness.

The Landing Craft Air Cushion is a high-speed, over-the-beach, fully amphibious landing craft capable of carrying a 60-75 ton payload. The LCAC fleet can serve to transport weapons systems, equipment, cargo and personnel from ship to shore and across the beach. This transport system is an integral part of our military arsenal and, as such, its readiness is an important consideration for our national security. Further, the best way to expend financial resources that have been allocated to maintain this fleet is a critical Issue. There is a clear coupling between the measure of Fleet Readiness as defined by the customer for this project and the information that is provided by Sandias ProOpta methodology. Further, there is a richness in the data that provides even more value to the analyst. This report provides an analytic framework for understanding the connection between Fleet Readiness and the output provided by Sandias ProOpta software. Further, this report highlights valuable information that can also be made available using the ProOpta output and concepts from basic probability theory. Finally, enabling assumptions along with areas that warrant consideration for further study are identified.

Evaluation of transboundary environmental issues in Central Europe

Central Europe has experienced environmental degradation for hundreds of years. The proximity of countries, their shared resources, and transboundary movement of environmental pollution, create the potential for regional environmental strife. The goal of this project was to identify the sources and sinks of environmental pollution in Central Europe and evaluate the possible impact of transboundary movement of pollution on the countries of Central Europe. In meeting the objectives of identifying sources of contaminants, determining transboundary movement of contaminants, and assessing socio-economic implications, large quantities of disparate data were examined. To facilitate use of the data, the authors refined mapping procedures that enable processing information from virtually any map or spreadsheet data that can be geo-referenced. Because the procedure is freed from a priori constraints of scale that confound most Geographical Information Systems, they have the capacity to generate new projections and apply sophisticated statistical analyses to the data. The analysis indicates substantial environmental problems. While transboundary pollution issues may spawn conflict among the Central European countries and their neighbors, it appears that common environmental problems facing the entire region have had the effect of bringing the countries together, even though opportunities for deteriorating relationships may still arise.

Developing New Mexico Health Care Policy: An application of the Vital Issues Process

The Vital Issues Process, developed by the Sandia National Laboratories Strategic Technologies Department, was utilized by the Health Care Task Force Advisory Group to apply structure to their policy deliberations. By convening three expert panels, an overarching goal for the New Mexico health care system, seven desired outcomes, nine policy options, and 17 action items were developed for the New Mexico health care system. Three broadly stated evaluation criteria were articulated and used to produce relative rankings of the desired outcomes and policy options for preventive care and information systems. Reports summarizing the policy deliberations were submitted for consideration by the Health Care Task Force, a Joint Interim Committee of the New Mexico Legislature, charged with facilitating the development and implementation of a comprehensive health care delivery system for New Mexico. The Task Force reported its findings and recommendations to the Second Session of the 41st New Mexico State Legislature in January 1994.

Impacts of energy R&D strategies of OECD members on the U.S.

During the past 20 years, responses to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the subsequent unprecedented world-oil price increases established by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by oil-poor member countries of the OECD, such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Sweden, have spawned formidable competitors in the global energy-technology marketplace for U.S. firms. Protection from the economic ramifications of high imported oil use and the recognition of the advantages of developing competitive technology exports provided a sustained motivation for many national governments to make substantial expenditures for the development of advanced energy technologies. These national strategies have produced competitive industrial capabilities in nuclear-reactor, combined-cycle power-plant, solar-photovoltaic, clean coal-combustion, biomass, and fuel-cell technologies that represent growth opportunities in industrialized countries as well as the developed world during the next several decades. This erosion of the relative U.S. competitive position in international energy-technology markets is likely to impact the U.S. balance of trade negatively in the future.

Maintainability analysis using Q-GERT network simulation

In reliability analyses of nuclear reactor safety systems, time- dependent phenomena (such as component failure during op eration and the ensuing repair activity) are often disregarded or treated quasi-statically because the time dependencies involved are not amenable to closed-form analytic formulation. In addi tion, conditional phenomena (such as a failure mode that depends on the failure mode in a previous event) and phenom ena that must be characterized by arbitrary probability distribu tions are often ignored. This paper reports the initial applica tion of the computer program Q-GERT, an existing code that uses dynamic Monte Carlo modeling, to reactor safety-system simulation and analysis. Using Q-GERT with its Monte Carlo techniques, the above shortcomings can, in principle, be dealt with, and the analysis can be elevated from the level of a reliabil ity analysis to that of a maintainability analysis. This new applica tion of Q-GERT, called the Maintainability Analysis Procedure (MAP), is illustrated by simulating and evaluating the behavior of a simple safety system as this system is subjected to each of four possible failure processes. These processes are distinguished by the number and complexity of the included phenomena, and the effects on estimates of the probability of system failure are shown to be significant as the processes become more complex.

A Comprehensive Fracture Diagnostics Instrumentation Fielding Program

Economic development of low permeability gas reservoirs often necessitates the use of massive hydraulic fracturing. Assessment of the effectiveness of the induced fracture requires knowledge of the dimensions, orientation, and spatial characteristics of the fracture in relation to the gas-bearing formation. A comprehensive characterization of fracture propagation not only aids in fracture treatment design for the reservoir, but can also help specify well spacings which will minimize interference of drainage patterns and thus maximize economic-recovery potential. This paper presents an approach to the development of a comprehensive fracture diagnostics program. The fracture diagnostics subprogram for the Multi-Well Stimulation Experiment I is discussed in detail, including fielding descriptions and operational procedures. Synopses of measurement techniques are given with emphasis on the fracture parameters one would expect to estimate from the individual instrumentation systems.

A network modeling and analysis technique for the evaluation of nuclear safeguards systems effectiveness

Nuclear safeguards systems are concerned with the physical protection and control of nuclear materials. The Safeguards Network Analysis Procedure (SNAP) provides a convenient and standard analysis methodology for the evaluation of safeguards system effectiveness. This is achieved through a standard set of symbols which characterize the various elements of safeguards systems and an analysis program to execute simulation models built using the SNAP symbology. The reports provided by the SNAP simulation program enable analysts to evaluate existing sites as well as alternative design possibilities. This paper describes the SNAP modeling technique and provides an example illustrating its use.