Dennis O. Dixon

Effect of age on therapeutic outcome in advanced diffuse histiocytic lymphoma: the Southwest Oncology Group experience.

To study the influence of chronologic age on treatment outcome in patients with advanced, diffuse large-cell (histiocytic) lymphoma (DHL), we reviewed the results of two recent Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) clinical trials. From 1974 to 1982, members entered 307 eligible patients treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) with or without bleomycin, and CHOP with or without immunotherapy using BCG, levamisole, or both. Complete response (CR) rates declined progressively with advancing age: 65% in those under 40, 60% in the 40 to 54 age group, 55% in the 55 to 64 age group, and 37% in those 65 and older (P = .001). Likewise, survival decreased significantly in older patients: medians were 101 +, 52, 34, and 16 months, respectively (P less than .001). Treatment guidelines included an initial dose reduction of 50% for patients aged 65 or older and for younger patients with bone marrow compromise. Despite protocol specifications, 23 of 81 patients aged 65 or older received initial full-dose therapy. When these patients were compared with younger patients on whom full-dose chemotherapy was started, survival curves, but not CR rates, were still significantly different. There were no significant differences in duration of CR or frequency of treatment complications. These data suggest that older age is associated with a worse prognosis in advanced DHL. Moreover, the initial dose reduction for patients aged 65 or older may have contributed to their inferior outcomes.

Characteristics of accelerated disease in chronic myelogenous leukemia

Determination of the characteristics of accelerated disease in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) helps in individual prognostication, and in the introduction and analysis of investigative approaches based on risk‐benefit ratios. The outcome of 357 patients with Philadelphia chromosome‐positive CML was analysed from the time of development of suspected features of accelerated disease. Median survivals shorter than 18 months were associated with the appearance of any of the following: cytogenetic clonal evolution; extramedullary disease; peripheral blasts ⩾ 15%, peripheral blasts and promyelocytes ⩾ 30%, or peripheral basophils ⩾ 20%; platelet count < 1.0 × 105/μl; marrow blasts ⩾ 15%, marrow blasts and promyelocytes ⩾ 30%, or marrow basophils ⩾ 20%. Relative hazard ratios, or risk of death per unit time, were calculated based on the relative survivals of patients who did or did not develop the particular feature of accelerated disease, after accounting for the time to development of the characteristic. Further analysis identified five features that have additive independent prognostic importance: cytogenetic clonal evolution; peripheral blasts ⩾ 15%; peripheral basophils ⩾ 20%; peripheral blasts and promyelocytes ⩾ 30%; and thrombocytopenia. By providing an objective estimate of prognosis in accelerated disease, the model identifies patients in need of different therapeutic interventions before the development of blastic crisis.

Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in stage IV follicular low-grade lymphoma: a risk model.

We analyzed the records of 96 previously untreated patients with stage IV follicular low-grade lymphoma (FLGL) uniformly treated with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone, and bleomycin (CHOP-Bleo) chemotherapy from 1972 to 1982. The overall complete remission (CR) rate was 77%. At a median follow-up of 138 months, the 10-year cause-specific survival rate was 42% with a median survival of 100 months. Failure-free survival (FFS) was 15% at 10 years with a median FFS of 30 months. Multivariate analysis showed peripheral lymph node size (LN), degree of marrow involvement, and sex, in that order, to be important for FFS, while the number of extranodal sites (#ENS), LN, sex, and degree of marrow involvement were important for cause-specific survival. We devised a tumor burden (TB) model, incorporating #ENS, LN, and degree of marrow involvement. Three groups were identified with statistically significant differences in cause-specific survival and FFS. Those with low TB (one ENS exclusive of extensive marrow and nodal disease less than 5 cm) had a 10-year cause-specific survival of 73% compared with 24% for patients with high TB (greater than or equal to two ENS and nodal disease greater than or equal to 5 cm) (P less than .001) and 40% for those with intermediate TB (either greater than or equal to 2 ENS, or extensive marrow only, or nodal disease greater than 5 cm) (P = .050). Patients with low TB had a 10-year FFS rate of 32%, while the intermediate and high TB groups had 10% and 9% FFS, respectively (P = .003). Because sex was a very strong prognostic variable, we created a risk model for survival and FFS based on TB and sex. Females with low TB had the best prognosis (92% survival and 50% FFS at 10 years) and males with high TB had the worst outlook (median survival and FFS, 43 and 12 months, respectively). Other TB-sex combinations defined two groups with statistically significant differences in survival but comparable FFS. This model should aid in the design and analysis of future trials.

Bayesian subset analysis.

As a means of assessing the importance of variation in treatment effect among patient subsets, we derived posterior distributions for subset-specific treatment effects. The effects are represented by combinations of terms for treatment and treatment-by-covariate interaction effects in familiar regression models. Exchange-ability among the interactions is a key assumption; thus, the results are of interest primarily in the context of examining a collection of subsets with no definite a priori distinction relative to treatment effect. Exchangeability leads to a shrinking of the posterior distributions of the interaction terms toward the natural origin of 0, offsetting the tendency of the estimated effects to disperse. The method is applied to parameter estimates from a proportional hazards regression analysis of survival data from a clinical trial, invoking the approximate multivariate normal distribution of the estimates. No subjective prior distributions are required. Vague priors are used for all of the regression coefficients except the treatment-by-covariate interactions, which are assumed to follow a normal distribution.

Direct Estimation of Latent Time for Radiation Injury in Late-responding Normal Tissues: Gut, Lung, and Spinal Cord

Mixture models are proposed for simultaneous analysis of the latency and fractionation characteristics of radiation injury in late-responding normal tissues. The method is an extension of the direct analysis for quantal response data. Conceptually, the application of the mixture model is based on the biological observation that over a wide range of doses a proportion of the irradiated subjects will never express damage. Mixture models allow the time of occurrence to be utilized in the analysis. Furthermore, this type of model takes time-censored observations into account in a natural way and provides an adequate framework for modelling and analysis of effect-dependent latency. Mixture models with complete and incomplete repair are applied to dose-incidence data for four late endpoints in rodents: death from radiation-induced pneumonitis, leg paralysis after spinal-cord irradiation, and radiation-induced rectal stenosis and anal discharge. Radiation-induced pneumonitis had an effect-dependent latency. The modelling of this phenomenon correlates well with the results of histologic studies. Interestingly, the ratio of hazard rates was not constant for this endpoint. The dominating feature in the latency of radiation injury to the spinal cord was a strong dependency on dose per fraction. After correction for this effect a tendency towards a longer latent time for lower effect levels was observed. For the rectal complications, there was no difference between latency with radiation only vs. radiation combined with cis-platin.

Sample size considerations for studies comparing survival curves using historical controls.

Formulas are derived for determination of the number of patients needed in a prospective comparison of survival curves, when the control group patients have already been followed for some period. Although an explicit formula for the required sample size is not available, the computing is straightforward, and tables of examples are presented. Situations are described when one might need to allocate some new patients to the control group, rather than exclusively to the experimental group.

Radiation-induced lung damage after thoracic irradiation for Hodgkin's disease: the role of fractionation

PURPOSEnto estimate the alpha/beta ratio for damage to human lung after thoracic irradiation for Hodgkins disease.nnnPATIENTS AND METHODSnThe criterion for lung injury was the presence of radiological changes in the vicinity of the mediastinum as assessed on regular follow-up chest X-ray examinations. Patients with supradiaphragmatic stage I-II Hodgkins disease received mantle field irradiation as part of their treatment between 1964 and 1981 (E.O.R.T.C. protocols H1, H2, and H5). The total mediastinal doses fixed by the protocols were 35-40 Gy. The fractional doses were left to the decision of the physicians in charge: the most frequent regimens were 5 x 1.8, 5 x 2.0, 4 x 2.5 and 3 x 3.3 Gy per week. The data were fit to the linear-quadratic (L.Q.) model using time-to-injury as endpoint.nnnRESULTSn1048 (97%) of 1082 patients were evaluable. The mean follow-up duration was 8 years. One hundred and ninety-five cases of radiologically-visible lung damage were observed after a median interval of 6 months (range: 0-101). The 3-year actuarial probability of lung damage was 19% (95% confidence limits: 17, 21). Multivariate analysis (Cox model, stratified by protocol) showed an increased risk of damage with dose per fraction (relative risk, R.R. = 2.22 per Gy (1.75, 2.82)), the presence of systemic symptoms (R.R. = 1.53 (1.09, 2.15)), and total mediastinal dose (R.R. = 1.06 per Gy (1.01, 1.12)). Age, sex, histological type, number of involved nodal sites and radiotherapy duration did not significantly modify the risk of lung damage. The L.Q. model parameters were: alpha = 0.031 Gy-1 (0.003, 0.059), beta = 0.010 Gy-2 (0.007, 0.013), alpha/beta = 3.07 Gy (-0.23, 8.46).nnnCONCLUSIONnthis low alpha/beta ratio is consistent with late effects values from animals and humans, and illustrates the influence of large fraction sizes on the occurrence of late pulmonary complications.

A comparison of marrow transplantation with chemotherapy for adults with acute leukemia of poor prognosis in first complete remission.

From July 1980 to November 1985, 109 patients with acute myelogenous and lymphoblastic leukemia who had reached a complete remission (CR) following induction treatment were assigned to a study comparing marrow transplantation with chemotherapy as a postremission treatment. Sixty-nine patients did not have a human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-identical donor, and therefore served as chemotherapy controls; 40 patients had HLA-identical donors, and therefore were assigned to the transplant arm. Of these, 23 were transplanted in first remission and 17 were not. Ten of these 17 were subsequently transplanted in relapse. Initially, only patients with poor prognosis determined by a predictive model were entered into the study. Subsequently, patients with moderately poor prognosis were admitted. Comparing the chemotherapy group with the patients transplanted in first CR, significant control of leukemia relapse in transplanted patients was seen in the subgroup with acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) (P less than .1), and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (P less than .01), in the poor (P = .01) and intermediate subgroup (P = .01), and in the good-prognostic groups (P = .05). The survival was affected significantly in only the poor and intermediate subgroups. The use of predictive models might help to select patients for whom bone marrow transplantation is appropriate in first remission and those for whom bone marrow transplantation can be left as the initial treatment of relapse. Predictive models could further be helpful in comparing studies performed at different transplant centers.

DNA aneuploidy in adult acute leukemia

Using flow cytometric techniques, we determined DNA ploidy levels in the bone marrow of 318 successive adult patients with newly diagnosed acute leukemia. Overall, 26% exhibited DNA stem line abnormalities, usually with a 10%-15% DNA excess, regardless of morphologic diagnosis. DNA aneuploidy was seen most frequently in patients with a hyperdiploid chromosome number and karyotype instability (50%), but was also present in a third of patients with chromosomal translocations and in 20% of patients with a normal diploid karyotype. Thus, among 73 patients with DNA aneuploidy, quantitatively concordant karyotype abnormalities were observed in almost 40% of patients; the discrepancy between DNA content and chromosome number in the remaining patients may reflect differences in the cell cycle position of target cells in G1/0 phase or mitosis, respectively. Cytogenetics affected treatment outcome in acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) with more favorable short- and long-term prognosis among patients with translocations compared with those with numeric abnormalities. The presence of an abnormal DNA stem line, among AML patients with translocations, identified a favorable subgroup with significantly longer remission duration and survival (25 and 26 months versus 18 and 13 months, respectively). In addition, the prognostic implications of DNA aneuploidy in AML were age-dependent, in that favorable effects among patients with translocations and unfavorable effects among those with numeric abnormalities or diploid karyotypes were most obvious in young and not in older patients (greater than or equal to 40 years). In adults with ALL, DNA aneuploidy was associated with shorter survival (15 versus 39 months in the diploid group), an observation that is distinctly at variance with recent findings in childhood ALL. Our results indicated that DNA flow cytometry was complementary to standard cytogenetics for the detection of genomic abnormalities; and DNA aneuploidy emerged, like in children but not in adults with ALL, as a new favorable prognostic feature in a subgroup of adults with AML, the biologic basis of which remains to be determined.

A Bayesian model for evaluating specificity of treatment effects in clinical trials

Prognostic factors provide important information for counseling individual patients and for the design of clinical trials. For example, cancer trials of good-prognosis patients may be oriented to reducing toxicity, whereas trials of poor-prognosis patients may focus on improving outcome. Ultimately, one wants to identify factors that permit the selection of appropriate treatments for individual patients. In this way, one could avoid treating many patients with toxic treatments when only a few of those treated would actually derive benefit. Statisticians have often been critical of subset analyses of clinical trials in which one attempts to identify such selectivity of treatment effects. There are several good reasons for this caution. Sometimes subset analyses are merely ‘fishing expeditions’ attempting to find some subset that appears to give ‘positive results’ in a clinical trial where there is no overall treatment benefit. Also, because most clinical trials are only sized for detecting overall effects, the power of the trial for detecting true specificity effects is often poor. The probability of claiming specificity by chance alone when none exists is determined by the number of subsets examined and is not limited by the sample size. Consequently, many subset claims are false positives, and the true positives often go undetected.