Dennis Rödder

Mapping Species Distributions with MAXENT Using a Geographically Biased Sample of Presence Data: A Performance Assessment of Methods for Correcting Sampling Bias

MAXENT is now a common species distribution modeling (SDM) tool used by conservation practitioners for predicting the distribution of a species from a set of records and environmental predictors. However, datasets of species occurrence used to train the model are often biased in the geographical space because of unequal sampling effort across the study area. This bias may be a source of strong inaccuracy in the resulting model and could lead to incorrect predictions. Although a number of sampling bias correction methods have been proposed, there is no consensual guideline to account for it. We compared here the performance of five methods of bias correction on three datasets of species occurrence: one “virtual” derived from a land cover map, and two actual datasets for a turtle (Chrysemys picta) and a salamander (Plethodon cylindraceus). We subjected these datasets to four types of sampling biases corresponding to potential types of empirical biases. We applied five correction methods to the biased samples and compared the outputs of distribution models to unbiased datasets to assess the overall correction performance of each method. The results revealed that the ability of methods to correct the initial sampling bias varied greatly depending on bias type, bias intensity and species. However, the simple systematic sampling of records consistently ranked among the best performing across the range of conditions tested, whereas other methods performed more poorly in most cases. The strong effect of initial conditions on correction performance highlights the need for further research to develop a step-by-step guideline to account for sampling bias. However, this method seems to be the most efficient in correcting sampling bias and should be advised in most cases.

Is Chytridiomycosis an Emerging Infectious Disease in Asia

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world.

Population demography influences climatic niche evolution: evidence from diploid American Hordeum species (Poaceae)

In this study, we explore the interplay of population demography with the evolution of ecological niches during or after speciation in Hordeum. While large populations maintain a high level of standing genetic diversity, gene flow and recombination buffers against fast alterations in ecological adaptation. Small populations harbour lower allele diversity but can more easily shift to new niches if they initially survive under changed conditions. Thus, large populations should be more conservative regarding niche changes in comparison to small populations. We used environmental niche modelling together with phylogenetic, phylogeographic and population genetic analyses to infer the correlation of population demography with changes in ecological niche dimensions in 12 diploid Hordeum species from the New World, forming four monophyletic groups. Our analyses found both shifts and conservatism in distinct niche dimensions within and among clades. Speciation due to vicariance resulted in three species with no pronounced climate niche differences, while species originating due to long‐distance dispersals or otherwise encountering genetic bottlenecks mostly revealed climate niche shifts. Niche convergence among clades indicates a niche‐filling pattern during the last 2 million years in South American Hordeum. We provide evidence that species, which did not encounter population reductions mainly showed ecoclimatic niche conservatism, while major niche shifts occurred in species which have undergone population bottlenecks. Our data allow the conclusion that population demography influences adaptation and niche shifts or conservatism in South American Hordeum species.

Evolutionary History of Wild Barley (Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum) Analyzed Using Multilocus Sequence Data and Paleodistribution Modeling

Studies of Hordeum vulgare subsp. spontaneum, the wild progenitor of cultivated barley, have mostly relied on materials collected decades ago and maintained since then ex situ in germplasm repositories. We analyzed spatial genetic variation in wild barley populations collected rather recently, exploring sequence variations at seven single-copy nuclear loci, and inferred the relationships among these populations and toward the genepool of the crop. The wild barley collection covers the whole natural distribution area from the Mediterranean to Middle Asia. In contrast to earlier studies, Bayesian assignment analyses revealed three population clusters, in the Levant, Turkey, and east of Turkey, respectively. Genetic diversity was exceptionally high in the Levant, while eastern populations were depleted of private alleles. Species distribution modeling based on climate parameters and extant occurrence points of the taxon inferred suitable habitat conditions during the ice-age, particularly in the Levant and Turkey. Together with the ecologically wide range of habitats, they might contribute to structured but long-term stable populations in this region and their high genetic diversity. For recently collected individuals, Bayesian assignment to geographic clusters was generally unambiguous, but materials from genebanks often showed accessions that were not placed according to their assumed geographic origin or showed traces of introgression from cultivated barley. We assign this to gene flow among accessions during ex situ maintenance. Evolutionary studies based on such materials might therefore result in wrong conclusions regarding the history of the species or the origin and mode of domestication of the crop, depending on the accessions included.

The link between rapid enigmatic amphibian decline and the globally emerging chytrid fungus.

Amphibians are globally declining and approximately one-third of all species are threatened with extinction. Some of the most severe declines have occurred suddenly and for unknown reasons in apparently pristine habitats. It has been hypothesized that these “rapid enigmatic declines” are the result of a panzootic of the disease chytridiomycosis caused by globally emerging amphibian chytrid fungus. In a Species Distribution Model, we identified the potential distribution of this pathogen. Areas and species from which rapid enigmatic decline are known significantly overlap with those of highest environmental suitability to the chytrid fungus. We confirm the plausibility of a link between rapid enigmatic decline in worldwide amphibian species and epizootic chytridiomycosis.

Cryptic Speciation Patterns in Iranian Rock Lizards Uncovered by Integrative Taxonomy

While traditionally species recognition has been based solely on morphological differences either typological or quantitative, several newly developed methods can be used for a more objective and integrative approach on species delimitation. This may be especially relevant when dealing with cryptic species or species complexes, where high overall resemblance between species is coupled with comparatively high morphological variation within populations. Rock lizards, genus Darevskia, are such an example, as many of its members offer few diagnostic morphological features. Herein, we use a combination of genetic, morphological and ecological criteria to delimit cryptic species within two species complexes, D. chlorogaster and D. defilippii, both distributed in northern Iran. Our analyses are based on molecular information from two nuclear and two mitochondrial genes, morphological data (15 morphometric, 16 meristic and four categorical characters) and eleven newly calculated spatial environmental predictors. The phylogeny inferred for Darevskia confirmed monophyly of each species complex, with each of them comprising several highly divergent clades, especially when compared to other congeners. We identified seven candidate species within each complex, of which three and four species were supported by Bayesian species delimitation within D. chlorogaster and D. defilippii, respectively. Trained with genetically determined clades, Ecological Niche Modeling provided additional support for these cryptic species. Especially those within the D. defilippii-complex exhibit well-differentiated niches. Due to overall morphological resemblance, in a first approach PCA with mixed variables only showed the separation between the two complexes. However, MANCOVA and subsequent Discriminant Analysis performed separately for both complexes allowed for distinction of the species when sample size was large enough, namely within the D. chlorogaster-complex. In conclusion, the results support four new species, which are described herein.

From Africa to Europe and back: refugia and range shifts cause high genetic differentiation in the Marbled White butterfly Melanargia galathea

BackgroundThe glacial-interglacial oscillations caused severe range modifications of biota. Thermophilic species became extinct in the North and survived in southern retreats, e.g. the Mediterranean Basin. These repeated extinction and (re)colonisation events led to long-term isolation and intermixing of populations and thus resulted in strong genetic imprints in many European species therefore being composed of several genetic lineages. To better understand these cycles of repeated expansion and retraction, we selected the Marbled White butterfly Melanargia galathea. Fourty-one populations scattered over Europe and the Maghreb and one population of the sibling taxon M. lachesis were analysed using allozyme electrophoresis.ResultsWe obtained seven distinct lineages applying neighbour joining and STRUCTURE analyses: (i) Morocco, (ii) Tunisia, (iii) Sicily, (iv) Italy and southern France, (v) eastern Balkans extending to Central Europe, (vi) western Balkans with western Carpathian Basin as well as (vii) south-western Alps. The hierarchy of these splits is well matching the chronology of glacial and interglacial cycles since the Günz ice age starting with an initial split between the galathea group in North Africa and the lachesis group in Iberia. These genetic structures were compared with past distribution patterns during the last glacial stage calculated with distribution models.ConclusionsBoth methods suggest climatically suitable areas in the Maghreb and the southern European peninsulas with distinct refugia during the last glacial period and underpin strong range expansions to the North during the Postglacial. However, the allozyme patterns reveal biogeographical structures not detected by distribution modelling as two distinct refugia in the Maghreb, two or more distinct refugia at the Balkans and a close link between the eastern Maghreb and Sicily. Furthermore, the genetically highly diverse western Maghreb might have acted as source or speciation centre of this taxon, while the eastern, genetically impoverished Maghreb population might result from a relatively recent recolonisation from Europe via Sicily.

Evaluating the Significance of Paleophylogeographic Species Distribution Models in Reconstructing Quaternary Range-Shifts of Nearctic Chelonians

The climatic cycles of the Quaternary, during which global mean annual temperatures have regularly changed by 5–10°C, provide a special opportunity for studying the rate, magnitude, and effects of geographic responses to changing climates. During the Quaternary, high- and mid-latitude species were extirpated from regions that were covered by ice or otherwise became unsuitable, persisting in refugial retreats where the environment was compatible with their tolerances. In this study we combine modern geographic range data, phylogeny, Pleistocene paleoclimatic models, and isotopic records of changes in global mean annual temperature, to produce a temporally continuous model of geographic changes in potential habitat for 59 species of North American turtles over the past 320 Ka (three full glacial-interglacial cycles). These paleophylogeographic models indicate the areas where past climates were compatible with the modern ranges of the species and serve as hypotheses for how their geographic ranges would have changed in response to Quaternary climate cycles. We test these hypotheses against physiological, genetic, taxonomic and fossil evidence, and we then use them to measure the effects of Quaternary climate cycles on species distributions. Patterns of range expansion, contraction, and fragmentation in the models are strongly congruent with (i) phylogeographic differentiation; (ii) morphological variation; (iii) physiological tolerances; and (iv) intraspecific genetic variability. Modern species with significant interspecific differentiation have geographic ranges that strongly fluctuated and repeatedly fragmented throughout the Quaternary. Modern species with low genetic diversity have geographic distributions that were highly variable and at times exceedingly small in the past. Our results reveal the potential for paleophylogeographic models to (i) reconstruct past geographic range modifications, (ii) identify geographic processes that result in genetic bottlenecks; and (iii) predict threats due to anthropogenic climate change in the future.

Will future anthropogenic climate change increase the potential distribution of the alien invasive Cuban treefrog (Anura: Hylidae)?

The invasive alien Cuban treefrog Osteopilus sepentrionalis is native to Cuba, the Bahamas and some adjacent islands. It was accidentally introduced to Florida, Puerto Rico and some Hawaiian islands, where it has become a predator and competes with native wildlife. We have used a maximum entropy ecological niche modelling approach to model its potential spread derived from current climate conditions as present in its native geographic distribution and we project that model into future climate change scenarios in order to detect new areas that are potentially threatened. Our model, applying current climatic conditions, suggested high probabilities of occurrence in countries around the Gulf of Mexico. Projections of potential distribution under future anthropogenic global warming scenarios suggest an overall extension of the potential distribution. If the predictive maps are interpreted as depicting the invasive potential of O. septentrionalis, strategies to prevent further invasion should focus on biosafety measures within the areas highlighted.

Species distribution models contribute to determine the effect of climate and interspecific interactions in moving hybrid zones

Climate is a major factor delimiting species’ distributions. However, biotic interactions may also be prominent in shaping geographical ranges, especially for parapatric species forming hybrid zones. Determining the relative effect of each factor and their interaction of the contact zone location has been difficult due to the lack of broad scale environmental data. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) now allow disentangling the relative contributions of climate and species’ interactions in hybrid zones and their responses to future climate change. We investigated the moving hybrid zone between the breeding ranges of two parapatric passerines in Europe. We conducted SDMs representing the climatic conditions during the breeding season. Our results show a large mismatch between the realized and potential distributions of the two species, suggesting that interspecific interactions, not climate, account for the present location of the contact zone. The SDM scenarios show that the southerly distributed species, Hippolais polyglotta, might lose large parts of its southern distribution under climate change, but a similar gain of novel habitat along the hybrid zone seems unlikely, because interactions with the other species (H. icterina) constrain its range expansion. Thus, whenever biotic interactions limit range expansion, species may become ‘trapped’ if range loss due to climate change is faster than the movement of the contact zone. An increasing number of moving hybrid zones are being reported, but the proximate causes of movement often remain unclear. In a global context of climate change, we call for more interest in their interactions with climate change.