Dennis Rumley

‘Securing’ the Indian Ocean? Competing regional security constructions

Dictated and driven to a significant extent by the changing dynamics of the knowledge–power equation, regional constructions are devised and propagated for a range of purposes – describing economic success, structuring a set of relationships, reproducing a particular vision of (in)security or organising a specific function, such as to maximise economic cooperation, to minimise insecurity or to fashion a particular form of security architecture. It is argued that there are three competing regional constructions for security (currently in circulation) in the Indian Ocean Region, emanating largely from Australia, the United States and India – an Indian Ocean-wide concept, an East Indian Ocean construct and an Indo-Pacific concept. It is suggested that there exists an overriding narrative in favour of an ‘Indo-Pacific’ construction at the expense of Indian Ocean concepts. As a result, it is concluded that the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) will remain relatively weak for the foreseeable future and that, unless there is a concerted attempt to involve China in a new maritime security regime, the discourse and practices of regional security might become the preserve of an Indo-Pacific alliance comprising Australia, India, the United States and other East Asian states, including Japan.

The French Geopolitical Project in New Caledonia

“Decolonization without independence” has been a characteristic of 25% of all functioning colonies since 1945 (Christopher, 2002). However, as has been pointed out, the Western colonizing powers have collectively authored the instruments of decolonization via the United Nations Decolonization Committee (Farer, 2003, p. 387). While this has resulted in many other nations and territories achieving self-determination since 1945, New Caledonia still remains one of many Non Self-Governing Territories. What this implies is that, some time during the 21st century, the currently minority indigenous Kanak population, which has resisted French colonialism for 150 years, faces the acute practical dilemma of a future based on autonomy, on independence or “in association” in the context of its present colonial economic dependency. The nature of this dilemma is one which faces many South Pacific island territories and thus one of the key issues in resolving regional conflict is the extent to which accommodations to economic dependency can be reached which are acceptable to the aspirations and needs of indigenous populations. Such accommodations may well involve the development of new associations and economic linkages with Australia and within the South Pacific region itself and beyond. It is argued here that, since the end of the Cold War period, France has been in the process of reinvigorating its regional geopolitical project in the South Pacific. Given the geopolitical and economic importance of New Caledonia and since French interests cut across those of the independence movement, there is thus likely to continue to be an ongoing conflict until indigenous demands are appropriately accommodated, as required by the United Nations. The purpose of this chapter is also to argue that the complex conflict and political change within the French “overseas country” of New Caledonia is not simply yet another example of ethnic resurgence as has so often been argued (for example, Ward, 1992). Rather, it is suggested here that the conflict is a manifestation of a deep-seated reaction and accommodation to long-standing repression brought about by the enduring impacts of French colonialism and its exploitation of distant lands both on account of their remoteness as well as their perceived worth. In short, there exists a fundamental geopolitical element in the case of New Caledonia, the complete appreciation of which is critical to an understanding of the overall conflict and its outcomes. The association between remoteness and disagreeable behavior, or the relocation of unacceptable human action, has been a common feature of colonial conduct around the Pacific and elsewhere. Ironically, the Pacific has been the only part of the earth’s surface which has been regularly used by several imperial powers to test and to use nuclear weapons. Even now, the Pacific still remains as a potential candidate 13. THE FRENCH GEOPOLITICAL PROJECT IN NEW CALEDONIA DENNIS RUMLEY

The geography of political participation

Summary This paper presents an overview and a tentative framework for the geographical description and analysis of political participation. The paper discusses research findings and potentialities for legal and non‐legal modes of political participation from three related perspectives: geographical patterns of political participation, geographical inputs into political participation and geographical consequences of political participation. It is concluded that the most profitable theoretical direction for geographical research on political participation is likely to be along ‘reformist’ lines.

Research agendas for the Indian Ocean Region

One of the principal commitments of the Journal of the Indian Ocean Region (JIOR) is to facilitate a regional voice in the identification, research and analysis of policy issues of common regional concern. This implies the acceptance and encouragement of eclectic frameworks and philosophical predispositions of local, national, regional and global orientations, of multiple agendas, and of a true openness to critical reflection. However, the Journal’s central focus on issues of common regional interest and concern, by implication, has as its ultimate outcome, the development of programmes directed towards the betterment of the life chances of Indian Ocean communities and peoples. This necessitates the acquisition of policies aimed at facilitating the creation of just, peaceful and resilient localities, communities and states in the Indian Ocean Region. To ensure this outcome, the Indian Ocean Region is replete with policy questions that necessitate collective state responses. The aim of this editorial essay is to present the views of some of the members of the JIOR international editorial board on what they consider to be important research issues for the Indian Ocean Region. These issues are discussed under six broad interrelated and overlapping headings geopolitical change, state security, maritime jurisdiction and security, environmental security, literary and cultural studies and regionalism.

III. Structural effects in different contexts

Abstract The aim of this paper is to discuss the implications of the findings presented in McAllister (1987) and Johnston (1987). In particular, the discussion centres on some of the main conceptual and methodological issues associated with the comparative analysis of structural effects in different contexts as well as on the necessity to evaluate alternative explanations of structural effects by introducing sufficient data controls.

The emerging Indian Ocean landscape: security challenges and evolving architecture of cooperation – an Australian perspective

This paper analyses two interrelated issues. The first is a description and discussion of Australian identity dilemmas and contested regionalisms as a backdrop to an understanding of Australias degree of engagement with regional security regimes. Throughout its post-colonial history Australia has been characterised according to three main geopolitical orientations – continental, geopolitical role and maritime. It is argued that Australia only came to fully realise its maritime orientation in policy terms towards the end of the Cold War period. The second issue in this paper evaluates arguments in favour of the need for an overall Indian Ocean Maritime Security Regime (IOMSR) and it is suggested that an inclusive model, built around energy security stakeholders, is much preferred from the viewpoint of long-term regional stability. This paper describes overall Indian Ocean (IO) regional security concerns and arrangements and then focuses on the nature of IO maritime security and insecurity and the initiatives currently in place to deal with such issues. Five options for the creation of a new IOMSR are described and evaluated and Australias place within each of these is discussed.

The Emergence of Australia’s ARC of Instability

At the end of the Cold War period, the geopolitics of Australia’s regional relations were described in terms of the application of a “directional front model” – that is, it was argued that, during the late-Cold War and post-Cold War periods, Australia’s regional relations had been developed along four broad “fronts” (Rumley, 1999). These four fronts had been developed primarily for reasons of regional security, in the broadest meaning of the multidimensional term security. The most recent creation of the fourth (Indian Ocean) front can also be represented as a “closing” of the circle of security around Australia. The end result was that Australia had attempted to construct a geopolitical foundation for a secure regional future. However, to some extent, this construction has been jeopardized by the increasing incidence of non-traditional security threats, especially after 9/11 and 12/10, and the emergence of a so-called “arc of instability” located within Australia’s region of primary strategic interest (ROPSI). The increasing importance of non-traditional security threats since the end of the Cold War has engendered a regional geopolitical transformation in the character of Australia’s ROPSI. Since the nature of the main security threats has shifted away from traditional state-based to non-state-based threats, then this has some fundamental implications both for regional relations and for the structure and conduct of Australian regional security policy. The principal purpose of this chapter is to discuss some of the main elements of this process of transformation in Australia’s ROPSI toward an arc of instability. The chapter will first describe the development of a cooperative security front to Australia’s north and east. It will then consider some of the elements of the changed geopolitical environment and the regional role of the United States. The arc of instability concept will then be evaluated and the regional causes of instability will be discussed. Finally, there will be a brief consideration of some policy implications.

Australia India Institute – Task Force Report on Indian Ocean Security, Stability and Sustainability in the Twenty-first Century

In May 2011, the Director of the Australia India Institute (AII) of the University of Melbourne, Professor Amitabh Mattoo, set up a Task Force on Indian Ocean Security to bring together international relations experts from Australia and India to debate and report on policy directions that both states might consider for the future enhancement of regional security. The principal contributors were David Brewster, Sanjay Chaturvedi, Timothy Doyle, Amitabh Mattoo, Dennis Rumley, Swaran Singh, Ric Smith and Siddarth Varadarajan. Apart from regular communication among Task Force members, preliminary meetings were also held in Melbourne and Kolkata in 2011. The final report represents the edited outcome of the last full Task Force meeting held in Fremantle, Western Australia, in May 2012. The revised draft of the report was completed in October 2012, 16 months after it was originally commissioned (albeit then in a much smaller scope). Since October 2012, there have been an array of regional and global changes that, to some degree, impact on the report’s conclusions, recommendations and implications for example, the US becoming a Dialogue Partner of the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR ARC) last November; the re-election of Barack Obama; the change of government in Japan; the leadership changes in China; the launch earlier this year of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s national security strategy; the important elections in Kenya just to mention a few. In addition, we can look forward later this year to the Australian Senate Report on the Indian Ocean and to the Australian Defence White Paper, among other regional policy developments. The report (Rumley, 2013) was officially launched in Parliament House, Canberra, on 20 March 2013 by the former Australian Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Richard Marles.

Ideology, carbon emissions and climate change discourses in the Indian Ocean Region

It is extremely instructive to critically review the ways in which the interrelationships between the politics and geopolitics of climate change and development have been portrayed in the scholarly literature, in official reports, communiqués and in the media. For example, governments and businesses have used different scientific sources to legitimise contrasting positions to enhance political and economic outcomes (Grundmann 2007). Climate change discourses, among other things, have exhibited an ideological polarisation of politics, especially when they have involved issues related to Third World economic development (see Table 1). Indeed, climate change perspectives can be viewed as a ‘clash’ caused by developmental level (Powell 2010). From an environmental perspective, it is well known that human-induced global warming has been described as an ‘inconvenient truth’, especially for the rich, powerful and developed. Consequently, and seemingly in order to perpetuate an environment of uncertainty, so-called ‘climate change sceptics’ tend to assume or to argue that climate change is not happening; or, if it is, it may be good for us; or, we may not be able to do anything about it (Gore 2006, p. 283). Some critical analysts, however, are concerned over the way in which climate change science is depicted as ‘certainty’ (Chaturvedi and Doyle 2010). Indeed, certainty and uncertainty are by no means natural or universal concepts and what the West regards as uncertain is by no means an innocent representation. The insurance industry, for example, possesses considerable potential to mobilise discourses of ‘truth’ and to impose its structure of understanding of climate change and has an ability to manage uncertainty at all levels of business around the globe (Lobo-Guerrero 2010). From a climate sceptic perspective, it is argued that climate science lacks scientific rigour and that there has been a misrepresentation of the evidence for human-induced climate change since computer models have simplified and manipulated primary scientific evidence (Plimer 2009, pp. 14 15). In addition, other climate change sceptics argue that those who strongly advocate a position of human-induced climate change are guilty of creating a ‘climate of McCarthyism’ in which ‘anyone who questions green orthodoxy is accused of committing treason’ (Lomborg 2009).

The kingdom and the quarry – China, Australia, fear and greed

‘China is neither the source of endless super-profits, nor the wolf at the door’: this is the conclusion (p. 238) of a fascinating new description and analysis of AustraliaChina relations The Kingdom and the Quarry China, Australia, Fear and Greed which deals with the evolving contours of the relationship primarily from an economic and geostrategic perspective. Australia’s current geopolitical environment is the result of a diverse amalgam of historical, economic and geopolitical forces, but, in essence, represents the product of three compelling, yet sometimes divergent, developmental phases over the past 200 years or so.