Dennis T. Kennedy

An Applied Study Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Translate Common Verbal Phrases to Numerical Probabilities

This is an applied study of how to develop a standardized set of useful verbal probability phrases for communication purposes within an expert community. The analysis extends the previous research in two ways. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to assess the relative weights associated with the verbal phrases employed by a group of thirty Financial Strategy experts at a major Wall Street Firm. Second, a quadratic least-squares technique is used to map these relative weights onto a subjective probability scale. The result was a consistent scaling of probabilistic phrases that the analysts prefer and actually use. This methodology can be used to minimize the problems associated with the use of probabilistic phrases by a group of experts who interact daily and who share assumptions, working knowledge and values.

N-Site: A Distributed Consensus Building and Negotiation Support System

This paper presents N-Site, a distributed consensus building and negotiation support system, which is used to provide geographically dispersed teams with agile access to a Web-based group decision support system. Four teams located in France, Mexico, the Ukraine, and the United States participated in the N-Site project. Each team was required to research the problem using the World Wide Web (WWW). With this background, each team identified opportunities, threats and alternatives as a basis for developing a response to the Cuban Missile Crisis that confronted President Kennedy in October 1962. The strategic assessment model (SAM) (M. Tavana, J. Multi-Criteria Decision Anal. 11 (2002) 75–96; M. Tavana and S. Banerjee, Decision Sci. 26 (1995) 119–143.) was used by each team to choose a strategy that best fit the teams perspective. SAM and WWW enabled the teams to evaluate strategic alternatives and build consensus based on a series of intuitive and analytical methods including environmental scanning, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and subjective probabilities. The WWW was used to achieve interaction among the international teams as they attempted to negotiate a decision framework and select a diplomatic response. The project was assessed with a Web-distributed survey instrument. This use of the WWW has implications for international diplomacy as well as global business.

Total quality index: a benchmarking tool for total quality management

The total quality index (TQI) proposed in this study is an information technology‐supported benchmarking tool that helps managers assess a total quality management program by enabling the cost‐effective measurement of key organizational processes. TQI utilizes the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi technique to measure ideal and actual quality management along eight critical factors synthesized by Saraph et al. and supported by subsequent research. A study utilizing TQI was conducted to evaluate the progress of quality management in clinical and non‐clinical settings. Eight clinical and six non‐clinical departments were selected from four different hospitals to participate in this study. The results show that, contrary to the common beliefs, there is little difference in the actual and ideal scores on the eight critical factors between the clinical and non‐clinical settings.

An Ahp-Delphi multi-criteria location planning model with application to Whey Protein Production Facility decisions

Whey is produced as a by-product from the manufacture of cheese or caseins and its disposal is potentially a serious environmental problem. This paper proposes establishing a Whey Protein Production Facility (WPPF) as an independent facility that would be supplied with whey by-products from Hamedan province cheese factories. The alternative sites for a WPPF are industrial complexes in the Hamedan region. The Delphi technique was used to elicit expert opinions about criteria for evaluating the locations. The criteria identified by the experts were land expenses, industrial complex facilities, convenience of access to sources of whey protein, lack of competing factories and transportation. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice software were used to compare the alternatives on the criteria derived from the Delphi process.

Do RRA Earnings Improve the Usefulness of Reported Earnings in Reflecting the Performance of Oil and Gas Producing Firms

This study employs a regression model and an inside-trading model to evaluate whether three component values of the Reserve Recognition Accounting (RRA) Supplemental Earnings Summary improve the extent to which reported earnings reflect factors affecting stock prices. The analysis is conducted for the 1979-1980 period of volatile oil prices, when the events that the RRA Earnings Summary was designed to reflect (exploration and discovery) were more likely to be significant. Results from the regression analysis indicate that RRA earnings variables make a significant incremental contribution to explaining the variance in abnormal returns accumulated over the fiscal years described by the annual earnings values. Results from an inside-trading model indicate that advance knowledge of RRA earnings would be more useful to an investor than advance knowledge of the traditional historical cost earnings. The implication of these results is that data from the RRA Supplemental Earnings Summary improve the usefulness of reported earnings in reflecting the performance of oil and gas producing firms.

Rho : a decision support system for pricing in law firms

There is no single schedule of legal fees and the way they are calculated; a rational model of fee determination is acutely needed. This paper presents a decision support system called Rho that allows the user to enter the internal and external data into a set of decision models to determine the strategic pricing for law firms. The paper describes the main features of the system, the optimization model that plays a critical role in the decision process, an illustration of how the system was applied in a real setting, an assessment of the proposed approach and future research issues.