Derric Pennington

Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States

Significance Land-use change affects the provision of ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project land-use change from 2001 to 2051 for the contiguous United States under two scenarios reflecting continuation of 1990s trends and high crop demand more reflective of the recent past. These scenarios result in large differences in land-use trajectories that generate increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields (even with declines in cropland area), and >10% decreases in habitat for one-quarter of modeled species. We analyzed three policy alternatives that provide incentives to maintain and expand forest cover, conserve natural habitats, and limit urban sprawl. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision. Providing food, timber, energy, housing, and other goods and services, while maintaining ecosystem functions and biodiversity that underpin their sustainable supply, is one of the great challenges of our time. Understanding the drivers of land-use change and how policies can alter land-use change will be critical to meeting this challenge. Here we project land-use change in the contiguous United States to 2051 under two plausible baseline trajectories of economic conditions to illustrate how differences in underlying market forces can have large impacts on land-use with cascading effects on ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project a large increase in croplands (28.2 million ha) under a scenario with high crop demand mirroring conditions starting in 2007, compared with a loss of cropland (11.2 million ha) mirroring conditions in the 1990s. Projected land-use changes result in increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields, and >10% decreases in habitat for 25% of modeled species. We also analyze policy alternatives designed to encourage forest cover and natural landscapes and reduce urban expansion. Although these policy scenarios modify baseline land-use patterns, they do not reverse powerful underlying trends. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use change trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km2 land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra.

Estimating Mammalian Species Diversity across an Urban Gradient

Abstract Human development is changing the landscape in many ways that affect the distribution of wild species of mammals. Most previous work has focused on birds with only a few studies that examine the effects of urbanization on mammalian species. Using a combination of live trapping, track plates, and observation, we collected preliminary data in which we quantified patterns of species distributions across a rural-urban gradient in southwestern Ohio. Individual species responded differently to aspects of human development. As seen in some previous avian but not mammalian studies, mammalian species richness was greatest at intermediate levels of development. Using cluster analysis, we were able to group sites into three types based on species richness: the most rural sites, those with a moderate degree of development, and the most urban site. This study shows that mammals respond to urbanization in similar ways to birds and butterflies and suggests that different variables may be necessary to explain the observed patterns.

Ecosystem service information to benefit sustainability standards for commodity supply chains

The growing base of information about ecosystem services generated by ecologists, economists, and other scientists could improve the implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of commodity‐sourcing standards being adopted by corporations to mitigate risk in their supply chains and achieve sustainability goals. This review examines various ways that information about ecosystem services could facilitate compliance with and auditing of commodity‐sourcing standards. We also identify gaps in the current state of knowledge on the ecological effectiveness of sustainability standards and demonstrate how ecosystem‐service information could complement existing monitoring efforts to build credible evidence. This paper is a call to the ecosystem‐service scientists to engage in this decision context and tailor the information they are generating to the needs of the standards community, which we argue would offer greater efficiency of standards implementation for producers and enhanced effectiveness for standard scheme owners and corporations, and should thus lead to more sustainable outcomes for people and nature.

Modeling Terrestrial Ecosystem Services

Terrestrial ecosystem services are ecological processes generated on the land and in fresh water that create value for one or more people. Given that ecosystem services create value for people, society might realize a net benefit from better management of their provision. In order to make this determination we need methods for accurately modeling and mapping service provision and value across a landscape. Here we discuss and investigate some of these modeling and mapping approaches.

Priority Setting for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Prioritizing land for conservation often competes with other societal objectives, such as housing developments, recreation, agricultural or industrial development, and resource extraction. The number of potentially competing objectives can complicate conservation planning decisions. Although there are potential tradeoffs among conservation for biodiversity, ecosystem services (ecological processes benefiting people), and economic costs, a systemic planning framework can help to identify synergies. By comparing alternative options for prioritizing conservation efforts, tradeoffs among various objectives can be evaluated, including conserving biodiversity, supplying ecosystem services, and minimizing costs. Herein, the recent research that is advancing these frontiers is described.