Derrick Bennett

Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Although stroke is the second leading cause of death worldwide, no comprehensive and comparable assessment of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, and epidemiological trends has been estimated for most regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and WHO regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010.We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR), based on disease-specific, pre-specified associations between incidence, prevalence, and mortality, to calculate regional and country-specific estimates of stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost by age group (<75 years, ≥ 75 years, and in total)and country income level (high-income, and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. FINDINGS We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). From 1990 to 2010, the age-standardised incidence of stroke significantly decreased by 12% (95% CI 6-17)in high-income countries, and increased by 12% (-3 to 22) in low-income and middle-income countries, albeit nonsignificantly. Mortality rates decreased significantly in both high income (37%, 31-41) and low-income and middle income countries (20%, 15-30). In 2010, the absolute numbers of people with fi rst stroke (16・9 million), stroke survivors (33 million), stroke-related deaths (5・9 million), and DALYs lost (102 million) were high and had significantly increased since 1990 (68%, 84%, 26%, and 12% increase, respectively), with most of the burden (68・6% incident strokes, 52・2% prevalent strokes, 70・9% stroke deaths, and 77・7% DALYs lost) in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2010, 5・2 million (31%) strokes were in children (aged <20 years old) and young and middle-aged adults(20-64 years), to which children and young and middle-aged adults from low-income and middle-income countries contributed almost 74 000 (89%) and 4・0 million (78%), respectively, of the burden. Additionally, we noted significant geographical differences of between three and ten times in stroke burden between GBD regions and countries. More than 62% of new strokes, 69・8% of prevalent strokes, 45・5% of deaths from stroke, and 71・7% of DALYs lost because of stroke were in people younger than 75 years. INTERPRETATION Although age-standardised rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past two decades,the absolute number of people who have a stroke every year, stroke survivors, related deaths, and the overall global burden of stroke (DALYs lost) are great and increasing. Further study is needed to improve understanding of stroke determinants and burden worldwide, and to establish causes of disparities and changes in trends in stroke burden between countries of different income levels. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review

This systematic review of population-based studies of the incidence and early (21 days to 1 month) case fatality of stroke is based on studies published from 1970 to 2008. Stroke incidence (incident strokes only) and case fatality from 21 days to 1 month post-stroke were analysed by four decades of study, two country income groups (high-income countries and low to middle income countries, in accordance with the World Banks country classification) and, when possible, by stroke pathological type: ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage. This Review shows a divergent, statistically significant trend in stroke incidence rates over the past four decades, with a 42% decrease in stroke incidence in high-income countries and a greater than 100% increase in stroke incidence in low to middle income countries. In 2000-08, the overall stroke incidence rates in low to middle income countries have, for the first time, exceeded the level of stroke incidence seen in high-income countries, by 20%. The time to decide whether or not stroke is an issue that should be on the governmental agenda in low to middle income countries has now passed. Now is the time for action.

Newly identified loci that influence lipid concentrations and risk of coronary artery disease

To identify genetic variants influencing plasma lipid concentrations, we first used genotype imputation and meta-analysis to combine three genome-wide scans totaling 8,816 individuals and comprising 6,068 individuals specific to our study (1,874 individuals from the FUSION study of type 2 diabetes and 4,184 individuals from the SardiNIA study of aging-associated variables) and 2,758 individuals from the Diabetes Genetics Initiative, reported in a companion study in this issue. We subsequently examined promising signals in 11,569 additional individuals. Overall, we identify strongly associated variants in eleven loci previously implicated in lipid metabolism (ABCA1, the APOA5-APOA4-APOC3-APOA1 and APOE-APOC clusters, APOB, CETP, GCKR, LDLR, LPL, LIPC, LIPG and PCSK9) and also in several newly identified loci (near MVK-MMAB and GALNT2, with variants primarily associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol; near SORT1, with variants primarily associated with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol; near TRIB1, MLXIPL and ANGPTL3, with variants primarily associated with triglycerides; and a locus encompassing several genes near NCAN, with variants strongly associated with both triglycerides and LDL cholesterol). Notably, the 11 independent variants associated with increased LDL cholesterol concentrations in our study also showed increased frequency in a sample of coronary artery disease cases versus controls.

Common variants at 30 loci contribute to polygenic dyslipidemia

Blood low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and triglyceride levels are risk factors for cardiovascular disease. To dissect the polygenic basis of these traits, we conducted genome-wide association screens in 19,840 individuals and replication in up to 20,623 individuals. We identified 30 distinct loci associated with lipoprotein concentrations (each with P < 5 × 10−8), including 11 loci that reached genome-wide significance for the first time. The 11 newly defined loci include common variants associated with LDL cholesterol near ABCG8, MAFB, HNF1A and TIMD4; with HDL cholesterol near ANGPTL4, FADS1-FADS2-FADS3, HNF4A, LCAT, PLTP and TTC39B; and with triglycerides near AMAC1L2, FADS1-FADS2-FADS3 and PLTP. The proportion of individuals exceeding clinical cut points for high LDL cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol and high triglycerides varied according to an allelic dosage score (P < 10−15 for each trend). These results suggest that the cumulative effect of multiple common variants contributes to polygenic dyslipidemia.

Genetic Variants Associated with Lp(a) Lipoprotein Level and Coronary Disease

BACKGROUND An increased level of Lp(a) lipoprotein has been identified as a risk factor for coronary artery disease that is highly heritable. The genetic determinants of the Lp(a) lipoprotein level and their relevance for the risk of coronary disease are incompletely understood. METHODS We used a novel gene chip containing 48,742 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2100 candidate genes to test for associations in 3145 case subjects with coronary disease and 3352 control subjects. Replication was tested in three independent populations involving 4846 additional case subjects with coronary disease and 4594 control subjects. RESULTS Three chromosomal regions (6q26-27, 9p21, and 1p13) were strongly associated with the risk of coronary disease. The LPA locus on 6q26-27 encoding Lp(a) lipoprotein had the strongest association. We identified a common variant (rs10455872) at the LPA locus with an odds ratio for coronary disease of 1.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49 to 1.95) and another independent variant (rs3798220) with an odds ratio of 1.92 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.49). Both variants were strongly associated with an increased level of Lp(a) lipoprotein, a reduced copy number in LPA (which determines the number of kringle IV-type 2 repeats), and a small Lp(a) lipoprotein size. Replication studies confirmed the effects of both variants on the Lp(a) lipoprotein level and the risk of coronary disease. A meta-analysis showed that with a genotype score involving both LPA SNPs, the odds ratios for coronary disease were 1.51 (95% CI, 1.38 to 1.66) for one variant and 2.57 (95% CI, 1.80 to 3.67) for two or more variants. After adjustment for the Lp(a) lipoprotein level, the association between the LPA genotype score and the risk of coronary disease was abolished. CONCLUSIONS We identified two LPA variants that were strongly associated with both an increased level of Lp(a) lipoprotein and an increased risk of coronary disease. Our findings provide support for a causal role of Lp(a) lipoprotein in coronary disease.

Genetic Loci associated with C-reactive protein levels and risk of coronary heart disease.

CONTEXT Plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) are independently associated with risk of coronary heart disease, but whether CRP is causally associated with coronary heart disease or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To investigate association of genetic loci with CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We first carried out a genome-wide association (n = 17,967) and replication study (n = 13,615) to identify genetic loci associated with plasma CRP concentrations. Data collection took place between 1989 and 2008 and genotyping between 2003 and 2008. We carried out a mendelian randomization study of the most closely associated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CRP locus and published data on other CRP variants involving a total of 28,112 cases and 100,823 controls, to investigate the association of CRP variants with coronary heart disease. We compared our finding with that predicted from meta-analysis of observational studies of CRP levels and risk of coronary heart disease. For the other loci associated with CRP levels, we selected the most closely associated SNP for testing against coronary heart disease among 14,365 cases and 32,069 controls. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS Polymorphisms in 5 genetic loci were strongly associated with CRP levels (% difference per minor allele): SNP rs6700896 in LEPR (-14.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -17.6% to -12.0%; P = 6.2 x 10(-22)), rs4537545 in IL6R (-11.5%; 95% CI, -14.4% to -8.5%; P = 1.3 x 10(-12)), rs7553007 in the CRP locus (-20.7%; 95% CI, -23.4% to -17.9%; P = 1.3 x 10(-38)), rs1183910 in HNF1A (-13.8%; 95% CI, -16.6% to -10.9%; P = 1.9 x 10(-18)), and rs4420638 in APOE-CI-CII (-21.8%; 95% CI, -25.3% to -18.1%; P = 8.1 x 10(-26)). Association of SNP rs7553007 in the CRP locus with coronary heart disease gave an odds ratio (OR) of 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94 to 1.01) per 20% lower CRP level. Our mendelian randomization study of variants in the CRP locus showed no association with coronary heart disease: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.97 to 1.02; per 20% lower CRP level, compared with OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.94 to 0.95; predicted from meta-analysis of the observational studies of CRP levels and coronary heart disease (z score, -3.45; P < .001). SNPs rs6700896 in LEPR (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.09; per minor allele), rs4537545 in IL6R (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91 to 0.97), and rs4420638 in the APOE-CI-CII cluster (OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.21) were all associated with risk of coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION The lack of concordance between the effect on coronary heart disease risk of CRP genotypes and CRP levels argues against a causal association of CRP with coronary heart disease.

Risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage : An updated systematic review of epidemiological studies

Background and Purpose— After a 1996 review from our group on risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), much new information has become available. This article provides an updated overview of risk factors for SAH. Methods— An overview of all longitudinal and case-control studies of risk factors for SAH published in English from 1966 through March 2005. We calculated pooled relative risks (RRs) for longitudinal studies and odds ratios (ORs) for case-control studies, both with corresponding 95% CIs. Results— We included 14 longitudinal (5 new) and 23 (12 new) case-control studies. Overall, the studies included 3936 patients with SAH (892 cases in 14 longitudinal studies and 3044 cases in 23 case-control studies) for analysis. Statistically significant risk factors in longitudinal and case-control studies were current smoking (RR, 2.2 [1.3 to 3.6]; OR, 3.1 [2.7 to 3.5]), hypertension (RR, 2.5 [2.0 to 3.1]; OR, 2.6 [2.0 to 3.1]), and excessive alcohol intake (RR, 2.1 [1.5 to 2.8]; OR, 1.5 [1.3 to 1.8]). Nonwhite ethnicity was a less robust risk factor (RR, 1.8 [0.8 to 4.2]; OR, 3.4 [1.0 to 11.9]). Oral contraceptives did not affect the risk (RR, 5.4 [0.7 to 43.5]; OR, 0.8 [0.5 to 1.3]). Risk reductions were found for hormone replacement therapy (RR, 0.6 [0.2 to 1.5]; OR, 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]), hypercholesterolemia (RR, 0.8 [0.6 to 1.2]; OR, 0.6 [0.4 to 0.9]), and diabetes (RR, 0.3 [0 to 2.2]; OR, 0.7 [0.5 to 0.8]). Data were inconsistent for lean body mass index (RR, 0.3 [0.2 to 0.4]; OR, 1.4 [1.0 to 2.0]) and rigorous exercise (RR, 0.5 [0.3 to 1.0]; OR, 1.2 [1.0 to 1.6]). In the studies included in the review, no other risk factors were available for the meta-analysis. Conclusions— Smoking, hypertension, and excessive alcohol remain the most important risk factors for SAH. The seemingly protective effects of white ethnicity compared to nonwhite ethnicity, hormone replacement therapy, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes in the etiology of SAH are uncertain.

Global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990–2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Summary Background The burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke varies between regions and over time. With differences in prognosis, prevalence of risk factors, and treatment strategies, knowledge of stroke pathological type is important for targeted region-specific health-care planning for stroke and could inform priorities for type-specific prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the global and regional burden of first-ever ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke during 1990–2010. Methods We searched Medline, Embase, LILACS, Scopus, PubMed, Science Direct, Global Health Database, the WHO library, and regional databases from 1990 to 2012 to identify relevant studies published between 1990 and 2010. We applied the GBD 2010 analytical technique (DisMod-MR) to calculate regional and country-specific estimates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke incidence, mortality, mortality-to-incidence ratio, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, by age group (aged <75 years, ≥75 years, and in total) and country income level (high-income and low-income and middle-income) for 1990, 2005, and 2010. Findings We included 119 studies (58 from high-income countries and 61 from low-income and middle-income countries). Worldwide, the burden of ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke increased significantly between 1990 and 2010 in terms of the absolute number of people with incident ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke (37% and 47% increase, respectively), number of deaths (21% and 20% increase), and DALYs lost (18% and 14% increase). In the past two decades in high-income countries, incidence of ischaemic stroke reduced significantly by 13% (95% CI 6–18), mortality by 37% (19–39), DALYs lost by 34% (16–36), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 21% (10–27). For haemorrhagic stroke, incidence reduced significantly by 19% (1–15), mortality by 38% (32–43), DALYs lost by 39% (32–44), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 27% (19–35). By contrast, in low-income and middle-income countries, we noted a significant increase of 22% (5–30) in incidence of haemorrhagic stroke and a 6% (–7 to 18) non-significant increase in the incidence of ischaemic stroke. Mortality rates for ischaemic stroke fell by 14% (9–19), DALYs lost by 17% (–11 to 21%), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 16% (–12 to 22). For haemorrhagic stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, mortality rates reduced by 23% (–18 to 25%), DALYs lost by 25% (–21 to 28), and mortality-to-incidence ratios by 36% (–34 to 28). Interpretation Although age-standardised mortality rates for ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke have decreased in the past two decades, the absolute number of people who have these stroke types annually, and the number with related deaths and DALYs lost, is increasing, with most of the burden in low-income and middle-income countries. Further study is needed in these countries to identify which subgroups of the population are at greatest risk and who could be targeted for preventive efforts.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UKs rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimers disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Update on the Global Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study

Background: Global stroke epidemiology is changing rapidly. Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality have decreased worldwide in the past 2 decades, the absolute numbers of people who have a stroke every year, and live with the consequences of stroke or die from their stroke, are increasing. Regular updates on the current level of stroke burden are important for advancing our knowledge on stroke epidemiology and facilitate organization and planning of evidence-based stroke care. Objectives: This study aims to estimate incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) for 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. Methodology: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated using all available data on mortality and stroke incidence, prevalence and excess mortality. Statistical models and country-level covariate data were employed, and all rates were age-standardized to a global population. All estimates were produced with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: In 2013, there were globally almost 25.7 million stroke survivors (71% with IS), 6.5 million deaths from stroke (51% died from IS), 113 million DALYs due to stroke (58% due to IS) and 10.3 million new strokes (67% IS). Over the 1990-2013 period, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of DALYs due to IS, and of deaths from IS and HS, survivors and incident events for both IS and HS. The preponderance of the burden of stroke continued to reside in developing countries, comprising 75.2% of deaths from stroke and 81.0% of stroke-related DALYs. Globally, the proportional contribution of stroke-related DALYs and deaths due to stroke compared to all diseases increased from 1990 (3.54% (95% UI 3.11-4.00) and 9.66% (95% UI 8.47-10.70), respectively) to 2013 (4.62% (95% UI 4.01-5.30) and 11.75% (95% UI 10.45-13.31), respectively), but there was a diverging trend in developed and developing countries with a significant increase in DALYs and deaths in developing countries, and no measurable change in the proportional contribution of DALYs and deaths from stroke in developed countries. Conclusion: Global stroke burden continues to increase globally. More efficient stroke prevention and management strategies are urgently needed to halt and eventually reverse the stroke pandemic, while universal access to organized stroke services should be a priority.