Dexter J.L. Choy

Forecasting tourism revisited

Abstract This article examines the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting techniques by applying time series regression to forecasting visitor arrivals. Past studies have shown that simpler time series techniques perform as well or better than complex forecasting models. An assessment of visitor forecasts developed at regional, destination and individual market levels suggests that time series regression performs well in producing annual forecasts of visitors which can also serve as a baseline for evaluating the net returns from applying more complex techniques. Tourism managers should appreciate the usefulness of simpler formal methods in developing forecasts of visitors.

Alternative roles of national tourism organizations

Abstract There exist various opinions on the role and structure of National Tourism Organizations (NTOs). Up to this point in time, only a few studies have attempted to analyse NTOs. This article provides a comparative analysis of the government tourism organizations for the top five Asia-Pacific destinations. The analysis suggests that, contrary to some opinions, government cannot compensate for the absence of a strong private sector in tourism. The core activities of NTOs are coordination, legislation, promotion, research and providing tourist information. To meet the changing situation of a destination, an NTO should adopt alternative roles, ie, developmental, marketing, management and innovative, consistent with a destinations growth pattern. This process would be continuous as a destination progresses through successive product life cycles reflecting changes to meet new visitor and community needs.

Tourism planning: The case for ‘market failure’

Abstract Tourism planning has been looked upon as a means of maximizing benefits from tourism development; however, there has been limited research on the accomplishments of tourism plans. This paper provides a longrun analysis of tourism planning in Pacific island destinations, using Hawaii, French Polynesia and the Cook Islands as case examples. A major conclusion of the study is that government tourism plans have little probability of influencing market forces to achieve economic success in destination areas. In view of this, future government planning efforts should be redirected to focus on issues such as the negative social and environmental impacts which are not ameliorated by market forces, leaving the private sector to assume the planning and financial risks of developing specific tourist areas. In order to achieve this, government tourism organizations may have to be restructured from economic development and/or marketing organizations to incorporate broad social responsibilities.

National tourism planning in the Philippines.

Abstract Tourism plans tend to focus on physical development and marketing. Government tourism organizations of developing countries, however, must assume broader responsibilities related to social, cultural and environmental concerns. Available tourism planning models may be suitable for the private sector but do not address the planning needs of governments. Dexter Choy of the School of Travel Industry Management, University of Hawaii, analyses the process used in formulating the National Tourism Plan for the Philippines.

Traffic impact analysis of tourism development

Abstract This paper develops a mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the traffic impacts of proposed tourism facilities. The estimation procedures make it possible to quantify traffic impacts in terms of the projected increase in total network travel time/cost that would result from the development of new facilities. The projected increase in travel cost provides a measure of the “true” traffic impacts born by residents and tourists and can be used by policymakers in deciding upon transportation system alternatives and/or imposing additional impact fees upon tourism developers.

Changing trends in Asia-Pacific tourism

Abstract This report is based upon presentations given to industry executives and government officials. It examines the growth in travel to Asian and Pacific destinations, and identifies the major changes in the pattern of growth prior to the recent crisis in Asian economies. Separate forecasts were developed for travel to Asian destinations, Australia/New Zealand and Pacific-island destinations excluding Hawaii. The report also examines industry performance as reflected in hotel occupancy rates throughout the region, and assesses planned development of additional rooms, as well as changes in travel patterns. The main source of data are the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) Annual Statistical Reports. It should be noted that in most of the analysis, data on Hawaii, Canada and the United States are excluded to focus on Asian and Pacific countries. The last section evaluates the impact of the Asian economic crisis upon the trends discussed in this report.

Forecasting hotel-industry performance

Abstract This paper provides a method which may be used by hospitality managers to forecast the annual hotel-industry occupancy rate for their respective localities. An empirical application of the method demonstrates that it can generate reasonably accurate forecasts of annual industry performance and can be useful to managers in their evaluation of the future competitive environment. An assessment of the influence of key variables upon forecast accuracy suggests that market research on trends in visitor characteristics would be useful for longer-term forecasting.

Tourism development the case of American Samoa

Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyze the development of tourism in American Samoa. The government in American Samoa initiated efforts to develop tourism during the early 1960s. In spite of this, tourism in American Samoa is still in an early development stage. Internal factors which have constrained tourism growth have been the limited natural resources and underlying conflict between the traditional Samoan culture versus western ideas. External factors in the form of increased competition from nearby destinations and shifts in airline services also have limited the number of tourists to the area. The development of tourism in American Samoa is relevant to other less popular and newly developing destinations in the Pacific. Thus, it illustrates the risks and problems in developing tourism in similar Pacific destinations.

The impact of guest mix on hotel staffing

Abstract This article examines the influence of guest mix (independent versus group travellers) on the level of labour input per occupied room. Using time-series data for a major hotel in Hawaii, one of the key findings is that an increase in FIT guest has a negative impact on the hotels staffing ratio. This result confirms the conclusion of an earlier study done by the author, and the analysis as a whole provides useful implications for hotel managements decision-making process.