Dharma Lesmono

A Longstaff and Schwartz Approach to the Early Election Problem

In many democratic parliamentary systems, election timing is an important decision availed to governments according to sovereign political systems. Prudent governments can take advantage of this constitutional option in order to maximize their expected remaining life in power. The problem of establishing the optimal time to call an election based on observed poll data has been well studied with several solution methods and various degrees of modeling complexity. The derivation of the optimal exercise boundary holds strong similarities with the American option valuation problem from mathematical finance. A seminal technique refined by Longstaff and Schwartz in 2001 provided a method to estimate the exercise boundary of the American options using a Monte Carlo method and a least squares objective. In this paper, we modify the basic technique to establish the optimal exercise boundary for calling a political election. Several innovative adaptations are required to make the method work with the additional complexity in the electoral problem. The transfer of Monte Carlo methods from finance to determine the optimal exercise of real-options appears to be a new approach.

A Term Structured Volatility Model of Poll Data and its Application to Election Timing

A term structured volatility model is proposed to describe the dynamic of poll data measuring the difference in popularity between the Government and the Opposition in Australia. This model is then used to determine the best time for the Government to call for an election in the Majoritarian Parliamentary System. The results are in terms of the expected remaining life in government and the exercise boundary, given certain values of popularity.