Diana Mangalagiu

Transformative targets in sustainability policy making: the case of the 30% EU mitigation goal

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

A multi-agent system for adaptive production networks

The dynamics of production networks is a complex and still poorly understood phenomenon. This complexity arises from the large number of heterogeneous actors involved and from the spatial distribution and interdependence of these actors. We investigate the geographical distribution of firms and the emergence industrial clusters. We use a multi-agent simulation approach, considering each production firm as an agent. We use adaptive agents taking into account investment decisions according to their business efficiency. In a constant return to scale economy, firms adapt their prices in order to be competitive and get larger market share. They adapt their business-to-business relations both to reduce costs of inputs and to ensure orders are satisfied. The agent proactivity, based on very simple decision mechanisms at a micro level, leads to the emergence of meta-stable business clusters and supply chains at the macro level of the global production system.